考虑边界条件不确定性的地下水污染风险分析

为分析边界条件不确定性对地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型输出结果的影响,运用Monte Carlo方法对一算例进行阐明,并从污染风险预报方面对模拟结果进行分析.为减少重复调用模拟模型产生的大量计算负荷,将边界条件（第一类边界条件-水头值）作为随机变量,建立地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型的Kriging替代模型,在保证较高精度的同时,实现了Monte Carlo模拟.结果表明：边界条件的不确定性,对地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型预报的结果有很大影响,考虑与未考虑边界条件不确定性得到的研究区污染羽分布差别较大.对地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型的Monte Carlo模拟结果进行统计与分析,可以评估研究区观测井1,2,3污染物浓度预报结果的可靠程度,并且可以预报出研究区观测井1,2,3遭受不同程度污染的风险.     

应用S-T模型对沉积物中PAHs的生态风险分级评价

本文构建S-T模型,运用集对分析理论（set pair analysis）构建基本模型,采用层次分析法并参考毒性当量因子确定各指标权重,应用三角模糊数（triangular fuzzy number）对差异度系数进行改进,基于加拿大沉积物环境质量标准,对沉积物中多环芳烃进行生态风险分级评价.结果表明,该模型考虑到化合物之间的相互作用因素并做模糊处理,对差异度系数进行改进体现沉积物中多环芳烃生态风险等级标准的模糊性,为持久性有机污染物生态风险分级评价提供了一种简便客观有效的方法.     

Mercury flows in large-scale gold production and implications for Hg pollution control

Large-scale gold production(LSGP) is one of the five convention-related atmospheric mercury(Hg) emission sources in the Minamata Convention on Mercury. However, field experiments on Hg flows of the whole process of LSGP are limited. To identify the atmospheric Hg emission points and understand Hg emission characteristics of LSGP, Hg flows in two gold smelters were studied. Overall atmospheric Hg emissions accounted for 10%–17% of total Hg outputs and the Hg emission factors for all processes were 7.6–9.6 kg/ton. There were three dominant atmospheric Hg emission points in the studied gold smelters, including the exhaust gas of the roasting process, exhaust gas from the environmental fog collection stack and exhaust gas from the converter of the refining process. Atmospheric Hg emissions from the roasting process only accounted for 16%–29% of total emissions and the rest were emitted from the refining process. The overall Hg speciation profile(gaseous elemental Hg/gaseous oxidized Hg/particulate-bound Hg) for LSGP was 34.1/57.1/8.8. The dominant Hg output byproducts included waste acid, sulfuric acid and cyanide leaching residue. Total Hg outputs from these three byproducts were 80% in smelter A and 84% in smelter B. Our study indicated that previous atmospheric Hg emissions from large-scale gold production might have been overestimated.Hg emission control in LSGP is not especially urgent in China compared to other significant emission sources(e.g., cement plants). Instead, LSGP is a potential Hg release source due to the high Hg output proportions to acid and sludge.     

Relationship between PM10 and PM2.5 levels in high-traffic area determined using path analysis and linear regression

The objective of this study was to determine the relationship between PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) levels as related to meteorological conditions and traffic flow using both a linear regression analysis and a path analysis. The Particulate matter(PM) samples were collected from Sukhumvit road, Bangkok, Thailand, at both open(104 samples) and covered(92 samples)areas along the road. Fifteen percent of all samples were separated before the statistical models were run and used for model validation. The results from the path analysis were more elaborate than those from the linear regression, thus indicating that meteorological conditions had a direct effect on the particulate levels and that the effects of traffic flow were more variable in open areas. The model also indicated that meteorological conditions had an indirect effect and that traffic flow had a direct effect on particulate levels in covered areas. The model validation results indicated that for open areas, the R~2 values were not very different between the path analysis and the linear regression model, but that the path analysis was more accurate than the linear regression model at very low PM concentrations. At high PM concentrations, the path analysis model also had a better fit than did the linear regression, so the predictions from the path analysis model were more accurate than those from the linear regression.     

铜合金实验室试验与实海挂片结果的比较与分析

目的比较实验室试验结果与实海挂片结果对B10和H62两种铜合金腐蚀性能评价的异同之处。方法采用线性极化、电化学阻抗、显微形貌观察等,比较两种铜合金在实验室模拟海水中的的腐蚀速率、点蚀倾向,结合反应机理、腐蚀形貌、环境等外部因素,分析导致实验室与实海环境下出现差异的原因。结果除榆林海域外,实海挂片与实验室结果都表明,B10试样的平均腐蚀速率小于H62。B10和H62两种铜合金随温度升高腐蚀速率增大,在实验室和实海情况下表现出一致性,且平均腐蚀速率都随浸泡时间的延长而降低。结论在实海环境中,温度不是影响点蚀的主要因素,微生物等其他环境因素会对点蚀产生较大影响。     

某型飞机外翼5—8肋损伤原因分析及修复探讨

目的 分析某型飞机外翼5—8肋油箱区结构不同程度损伤的原因,制定修复方案。方法采用受载分析、有限元仿真计算、静力试验数据分析等强度计算方法分析损伤产生的原因,采用扫描电子显微镜和光学显微镜对磨痕形貌进行观测等失效分析,对损伤结构件开展失效模式分析,根据损伤原因及失效模式制定科学简便的修复方案,同时对损伤长桁采取的修补措施进行强度校核。结果 通过对外翼油箱充压破坏理论分析、有限元仿真计算、静力试验数据反推,并结合飞机实际损伤情况,得出油箱破坏理论分析危险薄弱部位与真实破坏情况一致的结论。有限元仿真计算最危险结构部位与实际结构首先发生破坏部位吻合,可作为深入制定修复方案及推测实际加载压力的依据。通过静力试验数据反推、结构实际损伤及有限元仿真计算结论得出,外翼5—8肋结构出现损伤时油箱施加压力约0.5 MPa,针对损伤制定了更换外翼油箱内部第5—8肋损伤结构和贴补加强损伤长桁的修理方案,经结构强度校核,满足设计要求。结论 分析认为外翼5—8肋油箱区结构损伤原因为油箱压力超过设计值导致结构过载断裂,采用贴补加强修理损伤长桁和更换第5—8肋损伤结构的修复方案能够满足强度设计要求,可指导同类飞机类似结构损伤故障的原因分析和修理,提醒同类飞机维修人员在飞机维护时应关注外翼油箱压力超压问题。     

空间站控制力矩陀螺微振动测试技术

目的分析控制力矩陀螺的微振动扰动特性。方法通过获取陀螺连接点对结构的扰振力输出、关键部位的微振动响应来获取产品的微振动扰动特性,通过隔振的方式对外部环境的干扰进行隔离,进而降低测试的背景噪声,通过运用高精度测试传感器来实现微小扰动力信号、加速度信号的测量,利用结构有限元法及单点激励多点响应的模态分析方法校核系统刚度,进而确定测试频率范围是否满足需求。结果可同时获得空间站控制力矩陀螺连接点处的输出扰振力、质心处的输出扰振力合力、合力矩以及关键部位的微振动响应,可有效隔离外部干扰,扰振力背景噪声的时域信号最大值可控制在0.07 N以内,RMS值在0.02 N以内,加速度信号的时域背景噪声最大值可控制在1.5 mg以内,RMS值在0.1 mg以内。可识别微小扰振信号,加速度传感器分辨率为5×10-5 grms,力传感器的测量分辨率为1×10-2 N,力矩测量分辨率小于1×10-2 N·m。测试频带在320 Hz以内。结论满足型号需求,并投入型号使用。     

爆炸螺栓分离对热防护系统冲击响应分析

目的考察在爆炸螺栓分离过程中,作用在TPS(热防护系统)上的冲击响应是否会导致其破坏,从而影响航天器飞行安全,对过程进行数值仿真分析。方法提出四阶段仿真方案,基于MSC.Dytran软件,采用流固耦合方法对爆炸螺栓分离过程进行动力学仿真;根据单个爆炸螺栓地面分离试验的结构进行建模和分析,获取结构响应曲线;再根据实测的冲击响应数据,对爆炸过程中炸药及JWL方程的参数等设置进行调整,获取准确爆炸螺栓的分析模型;最后应用于对真实结构中TPS(热防护系统)在分离过程里受爆炸螺栓冲击响应的动力学分析与评估。结果通过参数调整,获得的仿真模型与爆炸螺栓地面分离试验实测结果一致,证明了仿真模型的有效性和四阶段仿真方案的可行性。结论提取的真实结构爆炸螺栓分离过程中作用在TPS(热防护结构)上的最大加速度响应曲线,可用于指导TPS(热防护系统)的设计。     

高温条件下高速碰撞试验技术研究

目的建立高温条件下结构的高速碰撞试验技术。方法基于理论和试验方法,研究影响试样加热/保温、碰靶速度和姿态的关键因素,利用次口径发射技术和电炉技术实现试样的加热、保温和加速。采用间接方法测试试样碰靶时的温度,联合应用次口径发射技术和靶体,控制试样的碰靶姿态,并利用高速摄影技术对其进行测试。通过薄壁圆柱筒的高温高速碰靶验证高温试验技术的有效性。结果建立了加热、加速和姿态控制一体化的高温高速碰撞试验技术,获得了不同尺寸薄壁圆柱筒不同姿态碰靶时的高温冲击动力学响应。正碰时,撞击端镦粗,尾端收缩,尾端的凹陷大于碰撞端的变形;侧碰时,圆筒呈马鞍状;角碰时的变形为楔形。随着圆筒的强度和刚度的降低,圆筒的变形增加,整体发生坍塌,出现大量的皱褶。结论建立的试验技术切实有效,可以用于高温条件下结构高速碰撞效应的研究。     

黔西南喀斯特地区红色风化壳的物源及元素迁移特征

南方喀斯特地区广泛分布着大量的红色风化壳,其成因及形成机制目前还存在争议。本文以贵州黔西南布依族苗族自治州泥凼石林的两处红色风化壳剖面(ND和YK)为研究对象,来探讨风化剖面上覆红土的物源问题,并计算其主、微量元素及稀土元素的迁移规律,认为本研究两处风化壳上覆红土为下伏基岩原位风化形成的,而且两剖面土壤均继承各自基岩的地球化学特征,并由于pH、风化强度等因素的影响表现出了元素迁移特征上的差异性。