区域城市化水平的综合测度研究--以江苏省为例

城市化是社会、经济、文化等多种因素综合发展的过程,是一个多维概念,而目前城市化水平常用的单一评价指标只能从某个方面反映一个地区的城市化水平,不能全面、科学地反映城市化的丰富内涵。以江苏省13个地级市为例,通过经济、空间、人口以及生活方式、生活质量等体现城市化内涵的四个方面构造城市化水平评价指标体系,应用多指标综合评价方法对13市的城市化水平进行综合评价研究。结果表明,江苏省城市化水平大致分为5个层次,南京、无锡和苏州城市化水平最高,常州和镇江居第二层次,扬州、南通和泰州属第三层次,徐州、盐城和连云港列第四层次,淮安和宿迁最低,城市化水平区域差异明显,从南向北,城市化水平呈梯度下降趋势;从东向西,城市化水平在某种程度上也呈下降趋势。     

煤炭资源耗减价值及其“利益共享、风险共担”补偿机制研究

煤炭行业清费建税,资源税从价计征引起了社会各界对资源税费制度改革的热议,而资源耗减价值是资源税费制度改革的重要依据之一。将资源回采率纳入使用者成本模型,科学计量了我国2000-2011年间煤炭资源的耗减价值。分析表明:2000-2011年间,4%折现率下煤炭资源耗减价值增加了22倍之多,而资源税费却仅仅增长了7倍,煤炭资源耗减价值与资源税费实际征收额之间存在有巨大缺口得不到补偿;国家资源所有者权益的实现度与煤炭经济形势呈逆向分布,煤炭工业利润率的上升并没有带来国家资源所有者权益的增加,导致这种错位的原因与我国不合理的资源税收机制有很大关系;资源税税率的理论区间为1.11%-8.85%,与国家规定的2%-10%高度重合,从而说明国家决策的合理性。为使资源所有者权益的实现度与煤炭工业经济形势相"挂钩",以资源税收入等于资源耗减价值为切入点,对资源所有者权益的实现度进行数理分析,求得了资源税税率与当期资源价格的关系,发现固定税率的资源税难以适应市场波动,于是提出"资源税+利润税"的组合税收工具,确定了利润税的起征点,计算得出了资源税和利润税的税率组合。该组合税制在一定程度上能够平抑经济周期对煤炭工业造成的影响,同时又维护国家资源所有者权益,从而实现国家与煤炭工业"利益共享、风险共担"。     

“结构—行为—绩效”框架下农地整理的管护绩效研究

在分析农地整理建后管护基本内涵的基础上开发了农民满意度绩效量表,引入新制度经济学领域"结构—行为—绩效"(SCP)范式,构建农地整理建后管护的"组织结构—管护行为—管护绩效"的分析框架。以湖北省赤壁市黄盖湖农场和嘉鱼县潘家湾镇为研究区域开展实证研究,通过比率标度法和熵权法生成绩效测度的组合权重并得到满意度绩效,运用调查数据检验建后管护的组织结构和管护行为对管护绩效的影响机理,分析组织结构的工作职能、成长机制以及管护行为中的集体行为和个体行为的影响程度。研究结果显示:受访农民对农地整理的管护绩效评价接近于"一般",企业管护模式下黄盖湖农场和集体管护模式下潘家湾镇的管护绩效存在显著的地区差异;表征管护组织持续发展状态、内部结构完善程度的组织结构类变量以及表征管护资金投入、受益农民群体参与程度的管护行为类变量是显著影响管护绩效的解释变量;黄盖湖农场企业化经营的组织结构、潘家湾镇的综合治理改革以及受到县级财政专项支持等外部要素是造成农地整理管护绩效差异的主要原因。研究结论验证了农地整理建后管护SCP分析框架的有效性,为提升农地整理管护绩效提供了理论依据。     

Global warming and environmental production efficiency ranking of the Kyoto Protocol nations

This paper analyzes the United Nations Organization's Kyoto Protocol nations to address two questions. First, what are the environmental production efficiency rankings of these nations? Second, is there a relationship between a nation's ratification status and its environmental production efficiency ranking? Our findings suggest that the nations that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol are more likely to be environmentally production efficient as compared to the nations that have not ratified the Protocol.     

Incorporating Uncertainty Into the Ranking of SPARROW Model Nutrient Yields From Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Watersheds1

Abstract: Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management decisions do not consider uncertainties in the predictions of nutrient yields and their downstream delivery. The increasing use of parameter estimation procedures to statistically estimate model coefficients, however, allows uncertainties in these predictions to be reliably estimated. Here, we use a robust bootstrapping procedure applied to the results of a previous application of the hybrid statistical/mechanistic watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to develop a statistically reliable method for identifying “high priority” areas for management, based on a probabilistic ranking of delivered nutrient yields from watersheds throughout a basin. The method is designed to be used by managers to prioritize watersheds where additional stream monitoring and evaluations of nutrient‐reduction strategies could be undertaken. Our ranking procedure incorporates information on the confidence intervals of model predictions and the corresponding watershed rankings of the delivered nutrient yields. From this quantified uncertainty, we estimate the probability that individual watersheds are among a collection of watersheds that have the highest delivered nutrient yields. We illustrate the application of the procedure to 818 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin by identifying 150 watersheds having the highest delivered nutrient yields to the Gulf of Mexico. Highest delivered yields were from watersheds in the Central Mississippi, Ohio, and Lower Mississippi River basins. With 90% confidence, only a few watersheds can be reliably placed into the highest 150 category; however, many more watersheds can be removed from consideration as not belonging to the highest 150 category. Results from this ranking procedure provide robust information on watershed nutrient yields that can benefit management efforts to reduce nutrient loadings to downstream coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, or to local receiving streams and reservoirs.     

A method for ranking components importance in presence of epistemic uncertainties

Importance Measures (IMs) are used to rank the contributions of components or basic events to the system performance, e.g. its reliability or risk. Most times, IMs are calculated without due account of the uncertainties in the model of the behavior of the system. The objective of this work is to investigate how uncertainties can influence IMs and to develop a method for giving them due account in the corresponding ranking of the components or basic events. The uncertainties considered in this work affect the model parameters values and are assumed to be described by probability density functions. The method for ranking the contributors to the system performance measure is applied to the auxiliary feedwater system of a nuclear pressurized water reactor.     

铁路运输传爆药安全性评价

通过对现有传爆药安全性综合评价方法和装载加固评价方法进行改进,建立导弹铁路运输安全评价模型,运用改进型安全评价方法计算出导弹运输实际现实危险度。通过重大事故后果模拟法对运输过程中存在的最大量危险源进行分析、模拟,得出发生事故后产生的对人、物的危害范围。运用装载加固安全评价方法对装载加固方案进行评价,从而得知铁路运输导弹的危险综合程度,该评价模型可为铁路运输部门危险货物运输安全评价提供参考。     

矿井通风系统安全性的多层次模糊综合评价

按照事故致因理论,并进行系统安全分析和易发事故分析,建立了矿井通风系统安全性的多层次评价体系;应用层次分析法和Matlab软件,确定矿井通风系统安全性评价体系中各子系统及各指标的权重;结合实际经验,根据安全规范构造各指标隶属度;进而根据评价集构造了梯形分布的隶属函数,并得到各指标对评价集的最终隶属度、模糊关系矩阵和综合评价矩阵;求得矿井通风系统安全状况的综合得分,进而划分安全评价等级,并提出了对应各等级的处理措施。将该评价方法应用到重庆开县桃园联合煤矿,取得了良好的效果。     

光度法标定标准溶液方法探讨

提出用分光光度法标定标准溶液的概念和方法,并对其可行性进行了研究和探讨。     

垂直面绿化植物遮阳系数与叶面积指数研究

比较、分析了农业研究中提出的叶面积指数LAI与用于建筑节能领域的垂直面绿化植物叶片遮阳系数SCPVW两个概念的异同和各自的应用范围。指出城市绿化采用水平或垂直绿化方式时,由于下垫面差异,植物叶片的遮阳系数应当分别采用LAI和SCPVW进行计算。