Demonstrating Floodplain Uncertainty Using Flood Probability Maps1

Abstract: The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps depict the 100‐year recurrence interval floodplain boundary as a single line. However, because of natural variability and model uncertainty, no floodplain extents can be accurately defined by a single line. This article presents a new approach to floodplain mapping that takes advantage of accepted methodologies in hydrologic and hydraulic analysis while including the effects of uncertainty. In this approach, the extents of computed floodplain boundaries are defined as a continuous map of flood probabilities, rather than as a single line. Engineers and planners can use these flood probability maps for viewing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary at any recurrence interval. Such a flood probability map is a useful tool for visualizing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary and represents greater honesty in engineering technologies that are used for flood mapping. While institutional barriers may prevent adoption of such definitions for use in graduated flood insurance rates (as most other insurance industries use to account for relative risks), the methods open the door technically to such a reality.     

STORM WATER MANAGEMENT: THE CONCEPT AND ITS APPLICATION1

ABSTRACT: Storm water management is a concept being applied in many urban areas to deal with the increasing problems of storm runoff control and flood damage prevention. This paper introduces the concept and describes the recently completed storm water management program in Columbus, Georgia. Columbus has spent five years and over $200,000 in the development of their problem which includes several basic elements: soils inventory and analysis, hydrologic data collection, sediment and erosion control ordinance, storm water management handbook, urban flood simulation model, interdepartment coordination study, drainage problem categorization study, and a pilot basin study. The results of the pilot basin study are presented including example output from the urban simulation model. The computer output illustrates both the hydrologic-hydraulic and economic capabilities of the model.     

FLOODING PROBLEMS IN A SMALL URBAN WATERSHED-DOAN BROOK,CLEVELAND, OHIO1

ABSTRACT: Analysis of a small urban watershed's flooding was undertaken to determine causes and solutions to this serious environmental hazard affecting University Circle, the cultural heart of Greater Cleveland. Doan Brook is a small, highly disturbed urban stream draining 11.3 square miles. Much of the stream coridor and associated park land is owned by the public. The upper watershed lies in the communities of Shaker Heights and Cleveland Heights who lease park land from Cleveland. Two 50-year floods seriously affected the Circle area in August 1975 generating over $1 million in damages. These events resulted from excessive rainfall triggering rapid earth movement of valley walls in the upper watershed, decreased basin lag time from the infilling of several small upland lakes, a seriously undersized stream channel and storm culvert (at University Circle), and complex institutional arrangements between the three communities in the watershed. Suggestions are presented for a methodology to resolve the technical aspects of the flooding problem.     

CHICAGO METROPOLITAN FLOODWATER MANAGEMENT PLAN1

ABSTRACT: The Chicago Metropolitan Floodwater Management Plan is a cooperative planning program under Public Law 566 of the 83rd Congress (The Watershed Protection and Flood Prevention Act). The planning effort was jointly sponsored by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service, and the Metropolitan Sanitary District of Greater Chicago. The project is unique in that it studies a 1260 square mile (3266 sq. kilometer) watershed, which is approximately 35 percent urbanized and contains approximately 7.5 million people. At present, approximately 4.4 percent or 330,600 people live in a floodplain. It is presently estimated that 80,000 acres (32,000 ha.) of the study area are subject to flooding with a current average annual damage estimated at approximately $10 million. The Plan which has been developed to reduce or eliminate these damages is divided into six separate watershed plans, and has been developed through extensive use of local citizen watershed steering committees. The paper discusses the planning process, public participation and implementation both at an overall river basin level and watershed case study level.     

FLOOD HAZARD STUDIES IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN USING REMOTE SENSING1

ABSTRACT. The Spring 1973 Mississippi River flood was investigated using remotely sensed data from ERTS-1. Both manual and automatic analyses of the data indicate that ERTS-I is extremely useful as a regional tool for flood management. Quantitative estimates of area flooded were made in St. Charles County, Missouri and Arkansas. Flood hazard mapping was conducted in three study areas along the Mississippi River using pre-flood ERTS-1 imagery enlarged to 1:250,000 and 1:100,000 scale. The flood prone areas delineated on these maps correspond to areas that would be inundated by significant flooding (approximately the 100 year flood). The flood prone area boundaries were generally in agreement with flood hazard maps produced by the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers and U. S. Geological Survey although the latter are somewhat more detailed because of their larger scale. Initial results indicate that ERTS-1 digital mapping of flood prone areas can be performed at 1:62,500 which is comparable to some conventional flood hazard map scales.     

Development and Operational Testing of a Super‐Ensemble Artificial Intelligence Flood‐Forecast Model for a Pacific Northwest River

Coastal catchments in British Columbia, Canada, experience a complex mixture of rainfall‐ and snowmelt‐driven contributions to flood events. Few operational flood‐forecast models are available in the region. Here, we integrated a number of proven technologies in a novel way to produce a super‐ensemble forecast system for the Englishman River, a flood‐prone stream on Vancouver Island. This three‐day‐ahead modeling system utilizes up to 42 numerical weather prediction model outputs from the North American Ensemble Forecast System, combined with six artificial neural network‐based streamflow models representing various slightly different system conceptualizations, all of which were trained exclusively on historical high‐flow data. As such, the system combines relatively low model development times and costs with the generation of fully probabilistic forecasts reflecting uncertainty in the simulation of both atmospheric and terrestrial hydrologic dynamics. Results from operational testing by British Columbia's flood forecasting agency during the 2013‐2014 storm season suggest that the prediction system is operationally useful and robust.     

Exploring the spatial dimension of community-level flood risk perception: a cognitive mapping approach

Environmental perceptions are central to individuals’ behavioural interactions with the environment. Cognitive maps, portraying a spatial representation of an individual’s environmental perception, can be aggregated to gain insight into the collective environmental perception of groups and populations. This paper uses cognitive mapping techniques to examine one aspect of environmental perception, flood risk perception, within a residential population (n?=?305). Flood risk perception was examined for the whole sample and six subgroup pairs. Using subgroups allowed examination of how factors previously shown to influence flood risk perception influence the cognitive map production in this population. We use a novel technique (slope analysis) to examine how the population’s perception of flood risk compares with expert assessments of flood risk, and compare the results of this novel technique with a commonly used cognitive map analysis technique (majority threshold method). Both methods identify areas where there is consensus within the population as to which areas are at risk of flooding. However, slope analysis usefully identifies areas where the population’s perception of flood risk lacks consensus, and is at odds with expert assessments of flood risk, without the loss of information inherent in the majority threshold method. Thus, this technique provides a novel approach to studies of environmental perception that can be widely applied within many fields.     

Del(18p) syndrome with increased nuchal translucency in prenatal diagnosis

We report a de novo translocation between chromosome 15 and 18 resulting in monosomy 18p in prenatal diagnosis. The patient was referred for amniocentesis due to increased nuchal translucency (INT) (5 mm) at 13.6 weeks of gestation. Karyotype of the fetus revealed 45,XX,der(15;18)(q10;q10) in all metaphases. The targeted fetal ultrasound at 20 weeks of gestation did not show any special physical abnormalities other than 6.4 mm of nuchal fold thickness. Molecular cytogenetic findings using CGH and FISH confirmed the del(18p) with dicentromeres from both chromosome 15 and 18. The present study shows that the INT at first trimester was the only prenatal finding for the fetus with del(18p) syndrome and that molecular cytogenetic methods are useful for detecting chromosomal aberrations precisely. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

硅肥耦合水分管理对复合污染稻田土壤As-Cd生物有效性及稻米累积阻控

选取湖南某矿区重金属镉、砷复合污染稻田土,以泰优390号为材料,通过盆栽试验研究湿润灌溉(CK)、农艺措施淹水(WF)、速溶硅肥结合淹水措施(FYsi)、矿物硅肥结合淹水措施(FKsi)及2种硅肥结合淹水(FYK)对土壤中As、Cd生物有效性及水稻糙米中As、Cd累积效应的影响.结果表明,淹水处理土壤p H值上升幅度为0.12~0.72个单位,均呈现先升高再下降,最后趋于中性的规律.淹水后,土壤Eh显著降低,FYsi、FKsi、FYK这3种配合硅肥的淹水处理土壤Eh值显著高于WF处理,与对照相比,淹水处理糙米中Cd含量降低了38.83%~65.05%,其中,WF、FYK处理对糙米Cd累积抑制效果最佳,糙米中Cd含量为0.98 mg·kg~(-1)、0.72 mg·kg~(-1);除WF处理糙米中As含量增加了36.64%外,FYsi、FKsi、FYK处理糙米中As的含量与对照相比分别降低了23.80%、38.10%、47.62%.FYsi、FYK处理对糙米As累积抑制效果最佳,糙米中As含量为0.13 mg·kg~(-1)、0.11 mg·kg~(-1).Cd各提取态含量与其在水稻糙米中的含量均呈现出极显著的正相关关系(P0.01);可交换态、TCLP提取态As与水稻糙米中As含量无显著相关关系.因此,FYsi、FKsi、FYK这3种施硅耦合淹水处理均可有效阻控稻米镉砷复合污染,其中FYK效果最佳.     

[CO2]和温度增加的相互作用对植物生长的影响

ＣＯ2 和温度是影响植物生长、发育和功能的两个关键因子 .在过去一个世纪中 ,[ＣＯ2 ]从 2 80 μｍｏｌ/ｍｏｌ增加到 36 0μｍｏｌ/ｍｏｌ且每年增长速率为 1～ 5 μｍｏｌ/ｍｏｌ,到 2 0世纪末达到更高的浓度[1] .最近的模型预测表明 ,到 2 10 0年 ,全球表面温度可能会增加 1～ 4 .5℃ [2 \〗.ＣＯ2 是光合作用的底物 ,而且还是初级代谢过程 (气孔反应和光合作用 )、光合同化物分配和生长的调节者 .温度几乎影响植物所有的生物学过程 .因此 ,在全球气候变化要素中 ,大气 [ＣＯ2 ]和温度升高对植物的生理过程和生物量及产量具有极为重要的…