Statistical Models to Predict and Assess Spatial and Temporal Low‐Flow Variability in New England Rivers and Streams

In the northern hemisphere, summer low flows are a key attribute defining both quantity and quality of aquatic habitat. I developed one set of models for New England streams/rivers predicting July/August median flows averaged across 1985–2015 as a function of weather, slope, % imperviousness, watershed storage, glacial geology, and soils. These models performed better than most United States Geological Survey models for summer flows developed at a statewide scale. I developed a second set of models predicting interannual differences in summer flows as a function of differences in air temperature, precipitation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and lagged NAO. Use of difference equations eliminated the need for transformations and accounted for serial autocorrelations at lag 1. The models were used in sequence to estimate time series for monthly low flows and for two derived flow metrics (tenth percentile [Q10] and minimum 3‐in‐5 year average flows). The first metric is commonly used in assessing risk to low‐flow conditions over time, while the second has been correlated with increased probability of localized extinctions for brook trout. The flow metrics showed increasing trends across most of New England for 1985–2015. However, application of summer flow models with average and extreme climate projections to the Taunton River, Massachusetts, a sensitive watershed undergoing rapid development, projected that low‐flow metrics will decrease over the next 50 years.     

Implications of Upstream Flow Availability for Watershed Surface Water Supply across the Conterminous United States

Although it is well established that the availability of upstream flow (AUF) affects downstream water supply, its significance has not been rigorously categorized and quantified at fine resolutions. This study aims to fill this gap by providing a nationwide inventory of AUF and local water resource, and assessing their roles in securing water supply across the 2,099 8‐digit hydrologic unit code watersheds in the conterminous United States (CONUS). We investigated the effects of river hydraulic connectivity, climate variability, and water withdrawal, and consumption on water availability and water stress (ratio of demand to supply) in the past three decades (i.e., 1981–2010). The results show that 12% of the CONUS land relied on AUF for adequate freshwater supply, while local water alone was sufficient to meet the demand in another 74% of the area. The remaining 14% highly stressed area was mostly found in headwater areas or watersheds that were isolated from other basins, where stress levels were more sensitive to climate variability. Although the constantly changing water demand was the primary cause of escalating/diminishing stress, AUF variation could be an important driver in the arid south and southwest. This research contributes to better understanding of the significance of upstream–downstream water nexus in regional water availability, and this becomes more crucial under a changing climate and with intensified human activities.     

Activity of Beavers as an Ecological Factor Affecting the Zooplankton of Small Rivers

The role of beavers in the transformation of small rivers is elucidated by analyzing the taxonomic and trophic structure of zooplankton in ponds differing in age, water flow rate, and the degree of overgrowing with higher aquatic plants. The building activity of beavers in the river system promotes the formation of biotopes of the ecotone type, in which the planktonic invertebrate community develops some features similar to or different from those of zooplanktonic communities from lakes and rivers undergoing anthropogenic eutrophication. The main distinctive feature of response to this activity in zooplankton is that its development reaches a plateau at the early and middle stages of succession, compared to that under conditions of anthropogenic eutrophication. For small rivers, the concept of zoogenic eutrophication (in addition to anthropogenic) is proposed.     

Analysis of Daily Peaking and Run‐of‐River Operations with Flow Variability Metrics,Considering Subdaily to Seasonal Time Scales

Environmental flows are an important consideration in licensing hydropower projects as operational flow releases can result in adverse conditions for downstream ecological communities. Flow variability assessments have typically focused on pre‐ and post‐dam conditions using metrics based on daily averaged flow values. This study used subdaily and daily flow data to assess environmental flow response to changes in hydropower operations from daily peaking to run‐of‐river. An analysis tool was developed to quantify flow variability metrics and was applied to four hydropower projects. Significant differences were observed between operations at the 99% confidence level in the median flow values using hourly averaged flow datasets. Median daily rise and fall rates decreased on average 34.5 and 27.9%, respectively, whereas median hourly rise and fall rates decreased on average 50.1 and 50.6%, respectively. Differences in operational flow regimes were more pronounced in the hourly averaged flow datasets and less pronounced or nonexistent in the daily averaged flow datasets. These outcomes have implications for the development of ecology‐flow relationships that quantify effects of flow on processes such as fish stranding and displacement, along with habitat stability. Results indicate that flow variability statistics should be quantified using subdaily datasets to accurately represent the nature of hydropower operations, especially for daily peaking facilities.     

Linking Landscape Characteristics and High Stream Nitrogen in the Oregon Coast Range: Red Alder Complicates Use of Nutrient Criteria

Red alder (Alnus rubra), a nitrogen(N)‐fixing deciduous broadleaf tree, can strongly influence N concentrations in western Oregon and Washington. We compiled a database of stream N and GIS‐derived landscape characteristics in order to examine geographic variation in N across the Oregon Coast Range. Basal area of alder, expressed as a percent of watershed area, accounted for 37% and 38% of the variation in summer nitrate and total N (TN) concentrations, respectively. Relationships between alder and nitrate were strongest in winter when streamflow and landscape connections are highest. Distance to the coast and latitude, potential surrogates for sea salt inputs, and watershed area were also related to nitrate concentrations in an all‐subsets regression analysis, which accounted for 46% of the variation in summer nitrate concentrations. The model with the lowest Akaike's Information Criterion did not include developed or agricultural land cover, probably because few watersheds in our database had substantial levels of these land cover classes. Our results provide evidence, at a regional scale, that background sources and processes cause many Coast Range streams to exceed proposed nutrient criteria, and that the prevalence of a single tree species (N‐fixing red alder) exerts a dominant control over stream N concentrations across this region.     

Streamside Forest Buffer Width Needed to Protect Stream Water Quality,Habitat, and Organisms: A Literature Review

This literature review addresses how wide a streamside forest buffer needs to be to protect water quality, habitat, and biota for small streams (≤~100 km² or ~5th order watershed) with a focus on eight functions: (1) subsurface nitrate removal varied inversely with subsurface water flux and for sites with water flux >50 l/m/day (~40% avg base flow to Chesapeake Bay) median removal efficiency was 55% (26‐64%) for buffers <40 m wide and 89% (27‐99%) for buffers >40 m wide; (2) sediment trapping was ~65 and ~85% for a 10‐ and 30‐m buffer, respectively, based on streamside field or experimentally loaded sites; (3) stream channel width was significantly wider when bordered by ~25‐m buffer (relative to no forest) with no additional widening for buffers ≥25 m; (4) channel meandering and bank erosion were lower in forest but more studies are needed to determine the effect of buffer width; (5) temperature remained within 2°C of levels in a fully forested watershed with a buffer ≥20 m but full protection against thermal change requires buffers ≥30 m; (6) large woody debris (LWD) has been poorly studied but we infer a buffer width equal to the height of mature streamside trees (~30 m) can provide natural input levels; (7, 8) macroinvertebrate and fish communities, and their instream habitat, remain near a natural or semi‐natural state when buffered by ≥30 m of forest. Overall, buffers ≥30 m wide are needed to protect the physical, chemical, and biological integrity of small streams.     

Use of Hydrologic Landscape Classification to Diagnose Streamflow Predictability in Oregon

We implement a spatially lumped hydrologic model to predict daily streamflow at 88 catchments within the state of Oregon and analyze its performance using the Oregon Hydrologic Landscape (OHL) classification. OHL is used to identify the physio‐climatic conditions that favor high (or low) streamflow predictability. High prediction catchments (Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency of (NS) > 0.75) are mainly classified as rain dominated with very wet climate, low aquifer permeability, and low to medium soil permeability. Most of them are located west of the Cascade Mountain Range. Conversely, most low prediction catchments (NS < 0.6) are classified as snow‐dominated with high aquifer permeability and medium to high soil permeability. They are mainly located in the volcano‐influenced High Cascades region. Using a subset of 36 catchments, we further test if class‐specific model parameters can be developed to predict at ungauged catchments. In most catchments, OHL class‐specific parameters provide predictions that are on par with individually calibrated parameters (NS decline < 10%). However, large NS declines are observed in OHL classes where predictability is not high enough. Results suggest higher uncertainty in rain‐to‐snow transition of precipitation phase and external gains/losses of deep groundwater are major factors for low prediction in Oregon. Moreover, regionalized estimation of model parameters is more useful in regions where conditions favor good streamflow predictability.     

Improvement in HSPF's Low‐Flow Predictions by Implementation of a Power Law Groundwater Storage‐Discharge Relationship

We have enhanced the ability of a widely used watershed model, Hydrologic Simulation Program — FORTRAN (HSPF), to predict low flows by reconfiguring the algorithm that simulates groundwater discharge. During dry weather periods, flow in most streams consists primarily of base flow, that is, groundwater discharged from underlying aquifers. In this study, HSPF's groundwater storage‐discharge relationship is changed from a linear to a more general nonlinear relationship which takes the form of a power law. The nonlinear algorithm is capable of simulating streamflow recession curves that have been found in some studies to better match observed dry weather hydrographs. The altered version of HSPF is implemented in the Chesapeake Bay Program's Phase 5 Model, an HSPF‐based model that simulates nutrient and sediment loads to the Chesapeake Bay, and is tested in the upper Potomac River basin, a 29,950 km² drainage area that is part of the Bay watershed. The nonlinear relationship improved median Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiencies for log daily flows at the model's 45 calibration points. Mean absolute percent error on low‐flow days dropped in five major Potomac River tributaries by up to 12 percentage points, and in the Potomac River itself by four percentage points, where low‐flow days were defined as days when observed flows were in the lowest 5th percentile range. Percent bias on low‐flow days improved by eight percentage points in the Potomac River, from ?11 to ?3%.     

Spatial variability in characteristics and trace metal levels in sediments from watercourses

Assessing sediment quality requires sampling designs which address variability. Often however, only one sample or composited sample is collected at a sample site. Existing studies on sediment variability or sampling strategies primarily concern lake or marine sediments. Two rivers and one canal were sampled to assess sediment variability. Further, it was determined if sediment contamination in running water could be predicted by using visual criteria and/or knowledge of the presence of depositional and erosion areas. Metal concentrations and sediment characteristics were measured in different visually distinct areas of the river. At all sample sites the coefficient of variance was relatively high for most sediment characteristics (1.4‐ > 100%) and metal levels (15.3–63.6%). In one river the majority of sediment characteristics variation was between two sediment types and detected by visually distinct differences. Significant differences in cadmium and zinc concentrations were also detected. Contrary to what was expected, cadmium, and zinc levels were highest in the coarse fraction. No differences were found in the second river. In the canal a greater concentration of fine grained sediments and metals were found in the deep areas. It was not possible to predict sediment areas with the highest levels of metal contamination using visual criteria or knowledge of the erosion and sedimentation pattern of the river.     

城市污水管道入流入渗监测技术研究与应用进展

入流和入渗(inflow and infiltration)会导致管道中水量超过设计水量,是导致污水管道溢流的主要原因。由于管道埋藏于地下,入流和入渗时间和位置随机性强,难于及时发现入流和入渗的位置和原因。目前国外的排水研究和管理人员利用在线监测技术获取了大量的监测数据,分析水量变化规律,并利用烟道测试等检测手段寻找入流入渗源。对排水管道入流入渗的监测和数据分析技术及在实际管理中的应用手段进行了综述,并以国内某城市实际监测数据为例进行入流入渗的分析,可为国内排水管网监控管理提供借鉴。