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691.
基于未确知数学理论,考虑河流环境系统信息的未确知性,定义二维水质模型主要参数为未确知参数,建立未确知二维水质模型,递推计算出保护区划分的合理长度及对应的污染物浓度取值区间及可信度分布,并对未确知二维水质模型中各参数的影响做了比较分析。结果表明,利用未确知二维水质模型,以COD为污染物计算的晋江干流水源二级保护区水域长度为6 220m,该长度能在0.934 0的主观可信度上保证水质安全,而基于确定性水质模型,利用各参数均值计算的保护区长度5 350 m存在95.22%的水质超标风险率。未确知二维水质模型各参数影响分析表明,模型应用的未确知参数及各参数变异性对模型计算结果有较大关系,未确知参数考虑越多,保护区划分长度越长;参数变异系数越小,其对计算结果影响越小。 相似文献
692.
JAMES N. SANCHIRICO MICHAEL R. SPRINGBORN MARK W. SCHWARTZ ANGELA N. DOERR 《Conservation biology》2014,28(2):361-371
Despite decades of discussion and implementation, conservation monitoring remains a challenge. Many current solutions in the literature focus on improving the science or making more structured decisions. These insights are important but incomplete in accounting for the politics and economics of the conservation decisions informed by monitoring. Our novel depiction of the monitoring enterprise unifies insights from multiple disciplines (conservation, operations research, economics, and policy) and highlights many underappreciated factors that affect the expected benefits of monitoring. For example, there must be a strong link between the specific needs of decision makers and information gathering. Furthermore, the involvement of stakeholders other than scientists and research managers means that new information may not be interpreted and acted upon as expected. While answering calls for sharply delineated objectives will clearly add focus to monitoring efforts, for practical reasons, high‐level goals may purposefully be left vague, to facilitate other necessary steps in the policy process. We use the expanded depiction of the monitoring process to highlight problems of cooperation and conflict. We critique calls to invest in monitoring for the greater good by arguing that incentives are typically lacking. Although the benefits of learning accrued within a project (e.g., improving management) provide incentives for investing in some monitoring, it is unrealistic, in general, to expect managers to add potentially costly measures to generate shared benefits. In the traditional linear model of the role of science in policy decisions, monitoring reduces uncertainty and decision makers are rational, unbiased consumers of the science. However, conservation actions increasingly involve social conflict. Drawing insights from political science, we argue that in high‐conflict situations, it is necessary to address the conflict prior to monitoring. Las Inversiones y el Proceso de Políticas en el Monitoreo de la Conservación Sanchirico et al. 相似文献
693.
Facing tight resource constraints, conservation organizations must allocate funds available for habitat protection as effectively as possible. Often, they combine spatially referenced economic and biodiversity data to prioritize land for protection. We tested how sensitive these prioritizations could be to differences in the spatial grain of these data by demonstrating how the conclusion of a classic debate in conservation planning between cost and benefit targeting was altered based on the available information. As a case study, we determined parcel‐level acquisition costs and biodiversity benefits of land transactions recently undertaken by a nonprofit conservation organization that seeks to protect forests in the eastern United States. Then, we used hypothetical conservation plans to simulate the types of ex ante priorities that an organization could use to prioritize areas for protection. We found the apparent effectiveness of cost and benefit targeting depended on the spatial grain of the data used when prioritizing parcels based on local species richness. However, when accounting for complementarity, benefit targeting consistently was more efficient than a cost targeting strategy regardless of the spatial grain of the data involved. More pertinently for other studies, we found that combining data collected over different spatial grains inflated the apparent effectiveness of a cost targeting strategy and led to overestimation of the efficiency gain offered by adopting a more integrative return‐on‐investment approach. 相似文献
694.
Irati Legorburu José Germán Rodríguez Victoriano Valencia Oihana Solaun Ángel Borja Esmeralda Millán 《Chemistry and Ecology》2014,30(8):701-718
This contribution characterises the sources and distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in sediments of the Basque coast (Bay of Biscay). Different source characterisation approaches (i.e. GIS assisted-chemometrics, PAH diagnostic ratios and analyses of composition profiles) were used in combination to successfully identify the factors determining the origin and distribution of PAHs. Urban/industrial combustion processes were identified as the main PAH source. However, the analysis of PAH composition patterns and diagnostic ratios identified secondary natural and petrogenic PAH sources on small spatial scales. The median ∑18PAH concentration ranged from 66 μg kg?1 (d.w.) to 7021 μg kg?1 (d.w.). The Ibaizabal estuary, which supports most of the anthropogenic pressure in the region (i.e. urban development, industrialisation, commercial and recreational harbours), also showed the highest PAH concentrations. On the shelf, human activities, hydrodynamic conditions and geomorphological features led to spatial differences in the PAH concentrations among sectors: the offshore and west sectors were characterised by higher concentrations, while the lowest values were found in the mid and east sectors. The results enhance the knowledge on PAH-related contamination processes and could be used to support the environmental assessment process required under current European marine legislation. 相似文献
695.
我国现已收集整理了覆盖全国的各类生物多样性数据和信息,但生物多样性数据管理的技术水平和质量较低,信息交流的技术手段和机制尚不理想,数据管理和信息交流的整体能力建设还相当薄弱。在评述目前我国生物多样性数据管理和信息交流现状的基础上,提出加强我国生物多样性数据管理和信息交流的具体行动措施,即建立新型的国家生物多样性信息系统组织机构体系,建立电子网络化的生物多样性信息系统,建立信息共享机制,优先协调、完善和开发一批数据库,制定基础数据管理标准。 相似文献
696.
复杂地形城市SO2扩散特征的模拟研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用中尺度气象模式RAMS和大气扩散模式HYPACT,结合甘肃省-中科院科技合作项目"兰州市大气污染及对策研究"于2000年12月在兰州市城区进行的大气污染物监测资料,通过资料分析与模拟计算,研究了兰州市冬季SO2的扩散特点。研究结果表明:大气扩散模式较好地模拟出了SO2时空分布特征,与同期监测资料的分析结果比较一致,模式模拟的SO2浓度分布的日变化与环流场的日变化紧密相关;模拟的SO2浓度的空间分布与污染源的排放方式有关,污染源的排放高度不同,造成污染的高度也不同,高架源对地面的影响比较小,而中、低架源对地面的影响比较大。 相似文献
697.
GIS与环境模拟在环境地学研究中的作用和意义 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
21世纪全球环境问题将更加突出,环境地学应为研究、解决环境问题做出更多的贡献。但是,环境地学研究所采用的方法和手段还不能满足客观的需要。文章着重讨论了环境模拟系统(EnvironmentalImitationSystem,EIS)的建立及EIS与地理信息系统(GeographicalInformationSystem,GIS)的耦合等问题。作者通过研究,认为上述问题已基本得到解决．从而可以弥补GIS中环境模拟功能的不足,可使EIS纳入GIS的信息空间管理系统,进行信息空间管理、应用分析和信息叠加,并使信息可视化。文章最后指出．目前,可建立GIS-EIS联合系统,以实现信息互换和信息资源的二次开发、利用。 相似文献
698.
Polona Kalan Katarina Košmelj Charles Taillie Anton Cedilnik John H. Carson 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2003,10(4):469-482
The objective of this paper is to quantify and compare the loss functions of the standard two-stage design and its composite sample alternative in the context of multivariate soil sampling. The loss function is defined (conceptually) as the ratio of cost over information and measures design inefficiency. The efficiency of the design is the reciprocal of the loss function. The focus of this paper is twofold: (a) we define a measure of multivariate information using the Kullback–Leibler distance, and (b) we derive the variance-covariance structure for two soil sampling designs: a standard two-stage design and its composite sample counterpart. Randomness in the mass of soil samples is taken into account in both designs. A pilot study in Slovenia is used to demonstrate the calculations of the loss function and to compare the efficiency of the two designs. The results show that the composite sample design is more efficient than the two-stage design. The efficiency ratio is 1.3 for pH, 2.0 for C, 2.1 for N, and 2.5 for CEC. The multivariate efficiency ratio is 2.3. These ratios primarily reflect cost ratios; influence of the information is small. 相似文献
699.
It is frequently argued that, at the parcel level, 1 stakeholders are capable of and well supported in managing their land‐related risks. Yet, evidence from the contemporary Australian context suggests otherwise: numerous large‐scale disaster events have revealed that citizens are ill‐prepared to respond and recover adequately. This paper begins with the premise that information, specifically land information, could better support parcel‐level risk preparation, mitigation, response, and recovery. State land administration organisations in Australia primarily maintain this information and make it accessible. Land information is used regularly across all levels of government to support risk management activities; however, such application has not always occurred at the parcel and citizen level. Via a case study approach, this paper initially explores the land information available in Australia to stakeholders interested in parcel‐level detail, and then goes on to propose how the utilisation of parcel‐level land information could serve to enhance risk management practices. 相似文献
700.
《Environmetrics》2017,28(6)
Calculating posterior means and variances of the state vectors in dynamic spatiotemporal models can be computationally burdensome. The challenge of calculating the posterior parameters while avoiding inverting any dense matrices is addressed. Nearest neighbor Gaussian processes and a number of dynamic modeling tricks will be used. To employ these techniques in both linear and nonlinear settings, a nontraditional discretization of an advection–diffusion stochastic partial differential equation is presented. The combination of these methods allows a nonlinear dynamic spatiotemporal model to be fit quickly. The methods are employed in a simulation comparing the proposed model and a reduced‐rank model in terms of model fits and run times and then by analyzing a data set of Pacific sea surface temperature. 相似文献