Developing indicators for assessing land-use sustainability in a tropical agro-ecosystem: The case of Sakaekrang watershed,Thailand

While the concept of sustainable land management is now widely accepted, there remains considerable scope for developing location-specific land-use indicators for sustainability evaluation. A study was conducted to investigate the indicators of land-use sustainability in the context of tropical agro-ecosystems using the case of Sakaekrang watershed, Thailand. The biophysical data were generated from Geographic Information Systems (GIs) and the socioeconomic data were collected through a field survey. In the light of sustainable land management objectives, a total of 32 criteria were considered in the analysis to determine land-use sustainability and identify indicators that best explain the sustainability level. About one quarter of the agricultural area in the watershed meets the sustainability threshold, indicating a substantial unstable area in the watershed. Among 11 indicators that showed a significant relationship with the computed land-use sustainability, land quality, source of farm income, and evapo transpiration were the most important.     

Interactions between scientific uncertainty and flood management decisions: Two case studies in Colorado

Flood management policies in the United States rely on scientific information about the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation and runoff. Yet, the available information is inherently uncertain because of the complexity of meteorological and hydrological processes. In mountainous areas, flood risk can vary greatly even within short distances depending on local climate, topography, soil characteristics, and land use. This paper describes two Colorado cases in which policy makers were presented with conflicting scientific estimates: revision of the Fort Collins floodplain map and modification of the Cherry Creek Dam. The case studies demonstrate that uncertainty can have substantial impacts on regulatory processes, public safety, and costs. The analysis considers the differing perspectives of various participants in the flood management processes, illustrating the interplay between uncertainties attributable to scientific issues and values issues. It suggests that attempts to provide a single “best” estimate do not necessarily meet the decision needs of all stakeholders. Conclusions indicate a need to improve communication about uncertainty when scientific estimates areprovided to decision makers. Furthermore, in highly controversial decisions, it may be necessary to reframe the discussion to consider the values issues raised by scientific uncertainty.     

遥感与GIS在蝗虫生境研究中的应用进展

蝗虫生境是蝗虫赖以生活、生存的环境。利用遥感技术获取与蝗虫密切相关的各种生境因子,并结合GIS技术研究和阐明蝗虫的生境因子对东亚飞蝗的产卵、孵化、成虫、迁飞等生育周期的影响机理,是实现对蝗虫监测、预测预警的基础。文章首先分析了各种蝗虫生境因子对蝗虫发生的影响机理,认为这些生境因子对蝗灾发生的影响不是孤立地起作用的,仅靠单个生境因子进行蝗灾的预测是不全面的,而遥感和GIS技术方便的获取、管理和分析多种生境因子数据,在大尺度蝗灾发生监测和预警中起到不可替代的作用。通过对遥感与GIS在蝗虫的不同发育阶段（蝗卵发育阶段、蝗蝻发育阶段和成虫阶段）的应用及其进展的分析,认为对蝗虫不同生育阶段的遥感监测需采用不同的参数和技术才能达到更好的效果,最后提出了遥感与GIS在蝗虫生境监测方面的未来发展方向。     

Research on flood risk analysis and evaluation method based on variable fuzzy sets and information diffusion

Floods have become increasingly alarming worldwide. Flood risk management in terms of assessing disaster risk properly is a great challenge that society faces today. Natural disaster risk analysis is typically beset with issues such as imprecision, uncertainty, and partial truth. There are two basic forms of uncertainty related to natural disaster risk assessment, namely, randomness caused by inherent stochastic variability and fuzziness due to macroscopic grad and incomplete knowledge sample. However, the traditional probability statistical method ignores the fuzziness of risk assessment with incomplete data sets and requires a large sample size of data. The fuzzy set methodology is introduced in the area of disaster risk assessment to improve probability estimation. The purpose of the current study is to establish a fuzzy model to evaluate flood risk with incomplete data sets. The present paper puts forward a composite method based on variable fuzzy sets and information diffusion method for disaster risk assessment. The results indicate that the methodology is effective and practical; thus, it has the potential to forecast the flood risk in flood risk management. We hope that by conducting such risk analysis, the impact of flood disasters can be mitigated in the future.     

三峡库区典型排污口河段污染物扩散降解特性研究

为减轻三峡库区长寿—涪陵段水环境污染,改善区域水质,建立了以水动力-水质模型为基础的区域关键排污口的筛选分析方法。采用三维数值模型EFDC对研究区域内污染物的超标面积进行模拟计算,并对污染物扩散降解特性进行分析,利用单位污染物负荷超标面积分析不同排污口污染物迁移扩散的差异,进行流域重点排污口的分析筛选。从改善整体河流水质出发,分析了各排污口位置的合理性。结果表明,支流回水区内排污口的混合区面积比干流河段处排污口要大,顺直江段处的排污口的混合区面积较弯段内侧处排污口要小。排污口应选在流速和水深较大的顺直河段,避免选择支流回水区。     

基于ArcGIS Engine设计天然气管道泄漏事故后果评估系统

城市天然气管道是城市不可缺少的基础设施之一,为有效遏制天然气管道事故造成的重大灾害,需加强对应急救援系统的研究。选取高斯模型分析泄漏的天然气的扩散过程,并划分事故后果评估区域。利用ArcGIS Engine平台,设计并建立一个城市天然气管道泄漏事故的应急救援系统。利用该系统可模拟天然气管道泄漏后可能发生的气体扩散、火灾、爆炸等事故后果,通过天然气理化参数、天然气泄漏的初始状态和周围环境的气象条件,以可视化方式直观显示不同等级的事故后果评估缓冲区。     

驾驶行为模型的研究进展

驾驶员行为模型的研究对于预测和干预驾驶员的风险行为、设计相关的道路安全设施与车内设备,以及制定交通法律法规等具有重要的意义。为了解和掌握学术界关于驾驶行为模型的研究进展,搜集、筛选和归纳了1960—2010年被SCI数据库索引的相关文章,将驾驶行为模型分类为描述性模型、信息处理模型、动机模型、计划行为理论(TPB)和躯体标识假设,并对每种模型进行评述和总结,理清这些模型间的内在联系。研究发现,现有各模型只是从某个角度研究驾驶员行为的部分特征,而不能解释驾驶员的全部行为。今后应不断完善和整合各类模型,并借鉴心理学、生理学和行为科学等相关领域的理论、知识,使驾驶行为模型变得更为实用、有效。     

我国化学品安全技术说明书(SDS)的管理现状研究

从分析我国化学品安全技术说明书的监管现状出发,研究对比了我国和国外在SDS覆盖化学品的范围、审核监督制度以及信息保密机制等管理技术方面的不同做法;指出我国对化学品安全技术说明书的监管在这三方面存在缺陷和不足;提出加强和完善化学品安全技术说明书的监管是提高我国化学品安全监管水平的重要手段;认为借鉴欧盟、美国和加拿大等国家的先进做法拓宽需要编制SDS的化学品范围、建立化学品安全技术说明书第三方检测制度、加强监督、完善信息保密机制将对促进我国的化学品安全监管水平具有重要意义。     

煤矿安全生产中地质信息控制研究

经过2005年至2011年7年的煤矿资源整合,山西省煤炭行业呈现如下新的特点:矿井数目显著减少,矿井数量由原来3000多座已采煤矿减少为1000余座整合煤矿;机械化程度提高,75％以上实现机械化采煤;井型变大,升级改造基建矿井规模均达到90万吨/年以上,单独保留矿井则为30万吨/年以上;安全形势明显好转,死亡人数由400多人降为100多人;年产能由2005年6亿吨到2010年7.4亿吨;同时,由于资源整合煤矿地质技术人才短缺、安全管理低下、地质信息不清,煤矿生产事故时有发生,其中地质信息的有效性是其中重要的原因之一.采用管理学的理念加大对地质信息的动态控制是避免事故发生的有效措施.首先认真分析了有效地质信息的含义,提出了地质信息的控制原理,并从组织、动态角度指出了信息发布的重要性;然后通过分析指出了已采矿井瓦斯、水文等地质信息控制的重点.     

GIS技术在浙江地震速报中的应用

介绍了浙江省数字地震台网建设中GIS辅助地震速报的实现技术思路和实现方法。主要描述GIS技术的特点以及如何利用GIS实现地震速报,给出了详细的技术方案和主要的程序实现代码。对地震速报的精度和效率作了分析,并在实践工作中得以检验。最后对已开发程序的不足做了总结。