Enhanced water resource base for sustainable integrated water resource management

The article states the case for greatly enhanced reliance on desalination in the provision of freshwater. It argues that the concept of integrated water resource management (IWRM), should be expanded to routinely include desalination, and that sea water and brackish water should be listed among available sources of freshwater. In recent years, the price per m3 of freshwater obtained from desalination has steadily declined, and is now within competitive range of conventional sources, especially as extracting water from surface sources (rivers, lakes) is becoming increasingly expensive as well as ecologically harmful, and groundwater in many locations is saline or depleted. With the expectation that by 2020, five billion people will reside in megacities, today's conventional water resources are likely to become insufficient. As many of these megacities are located near ocean coasts, sea water seems a logical solution.     

NITRATE CONCENTRATIONS IN ILLINOIS RIVERS 1967 TO 1974: COMPARISON AMONG REPORTING AGENCIES1

ABSTRACT: Long term data on surface water quality can sometimes be assembled by combining data collected by different agencies at different times and assuming that between agency differences in data quality are insignificant. The objective of this paper was to assess the quality of riverine nitrate (NO₃) concentrations in Illinois measured and reported by four agencies from 1967 to 1974 by comparing median values for similar sampling locations and periods. A total of 17 river reaches were identified for which two agencies reported NO₃ concentrations during similar periods. Nonparametric comparison of median values and analysis of covariance with discharge as a covariant produced similar results. Nitrate concentrations reported by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) from 1967 to 1971 were not statistically (P > 0.05) different from values reported by the Illinois State Water Survey (ISWS) for two of three river reaches. Additionally, NO₃ concentrations reported by USGS from 1972 to 1974 were not statistically different than concentrations reported by the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency (IEPA) for four of five river reaches. From 1969 to 1971, NO₃ concentrations reported by the Illinois Department of Public Heath and the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency (IDPH/IEPA) were less than one‐fourth the magnitude of values reported by ISWS. The median NO₃ concentrations measured by the Central Illinois Public Service (CIPS) were significantly greater than those measured by USGS and IDPH/IEPA in the three comparable sampling locations. The use of NO₃ concentrations measured by CIPS and IDPH/IEPA prior to 1972 is not recommended.     

TRANSIENT RESPONSE FUNCTIONS FOR CONJUNCTIVE WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN,IDAHO1

ABSTRACT: Increasing demands on western water are causing a mounting need for the conjunctive management of surface water and ground water resources. Under western water law, the senior water rights holder has priority over the junior water rights holder in times of water shortage. Water managers have been reluctant to conjunctively manage surface water and ground water resources because of the difficulty of quantification of the impacts to surface water resources from ground water stresses. Impacts from ground water use can take years to propagate through an aquifer system. Prediction of the degree of impact to surface water resources over time and the spatial distribution of impacts is very difficult. Response functions mathematically describe the relationship between a unit ground water stress applied at a specific location and stream depletion or aquifer water level change elsewhere in the system. Response functions can be used to help quantify the spatial and temporal impacts to surface water resources caused by ground water pumping. This paper describes the theory of response functions and presents an application of transient response functions in the Snake River Plain, Idaho. Transient response functions can be used to facilitate the conjunctive management of surface and ground water not only in the eastern Snake River Plain basin, but also in similar basins throughout the western United States.     

MODELING THE IMPACTS OF WATER LEVEL CHANGES ON A GREAT LAKES COMMUNITY1

ABSTRACT: Recent research that couples climate change scenarios based on general circulation models (GCM) with Great Lakes hydrologic models has indicated that average water levels are projected to decline in the future. This paper outlines a methodology to assess the potential impact of declining water levels on Great Lakes waterfront communities, using the Lake Huron shoreline at Goderich, Ontario, as an example. The methodology utilizes a geographic information system (GIS) to combine topographic and bathymetric datasets. A digital elevation surface is used to model projected shoreline change for 2050 using water level scenarios. An arbitrary scenario, based on a 1 m decline from February 2001 lake levels, is also modeled. By creating a series of shoreline scenarios, a range of impact and cost scenarios are generated for the Goderich Harbor and adjacent marinas. Additional harbor and marina dredging could cost as much as CDN $7.6 million. Lake freighters may experience a 30 percent loss in vessel capacity. The methodology is used to provide initial estimates of the potential impacts of climate change that can be readily updated as more robust climate change scenarios become available and is adaptable for use in other Great Lakes coastal communities.     

利用信息扩散模式对安徽及华东地区地震的风险分析

本文利用信息扩散模式,分别从年地震频次和年最大震级两个方面对安徽及华东地区的地震风险进行评估.结果显示:安徽地区ML≥3.0地震,年频次4次以上,约两年一遇;年发生ML≥3.9地震,则3年可能遇一次.而华东地区ML≥4.0地震,年频次4次以上,大约3年一遇;年发生ML≥4.9的地震,则可能2年遇一次.     

自然灾害风险区划图的一个潜在发展方向

由于自然灾害系统的复杂性及数据资料的不完备性,人们不可能精确估计任何自然灾害发生的概率,"概率值估不准"是现有超越概率风险区划图的致命弱点.简要回顾了针对这一问题已进行的提高估计精度和进行模糊风险计算的有关研究,并将模糊风险研究引入风险区划图的编制,给出了自然灾害软风险区划图的定义和一个初步的样式.讨论了这种风险图在体现风险值估不准方面,以及在为用户提供更多风险信息,为决策者提供调整余地等方面的优点.研究结果表明,软风险区划图是自然灾害风险区划图的一个潜在发展方向.为推进这一研究领域的发展,对今后的工作提出了一些建议.     

信息不对称下的金融风险机理研究

利用信息不对称理论对市场交易中的道德风险和逆向选择进行了解释。对国家同商业银行及中介机构的信息不对称,商业银行同工商企业的信息不对称,国家金融机构信息获取方面存在的困难的原因进行了分析。研究了由于信息不对称利率、汇率、管理及决策在金融行业的风险,以及操作过程中,贷款对象选择,对中小企业贷款的风险。只要充分重视金融风险,采取得当的防范对策,风险是可以防范的。     

铅锌矿产资源开发重金属污染风险评价

在论述环境风险评价的概念、理论和方法的基础上,通过对某典型铅锌矿山重金属污染程度、重金属毒性响应系数和生态危害系数的计算与探讨,建立了铅锌矿山重金属生态风险评价指标体系.根据所建立的指标体系,计算了每个样点的生态风险指数,结果认为该矿山总体环境质量很差,重金属污染极其严重.     

数字消防--消防信息化的开放模式

针对当前消防信息化建设中存在的开放性不足的问题,提出了一种开放的建设模式--数字消防.在探讨数字消防的性质和特点的基础上,对我国数字消防的功能需求进行了系统分析,并对实践中出现的"由总队主导的数字消防模式"和"由民防主导的数字消防模式"进行了探讨分析.最后,针对需要进一步解决的问题提出了相应的建议.     

基于GIS技术的海塘防洪减灾信息系统

海塘工程的规划、设计、建设、维护和管理,对沿海省份经济发展和人民生命财产的安全十分重要,历来受到政府和沿海居民的高度重视.介绍了基于GIS技术的海塘防洪减灾信息系统的主要功能及逻辑结构,分析了海塘数据库的特点,详细讨论了海塘属性和空间数据库的建库内容及方法.最后通过应用实例,验证了系统技术路线的合理性、正确性和实用性.