评价自然灾害健康效应及其需要的指标体系

介绍了评价自然灾害健康效应及其需要的指标体系。提出通过调查死亡、伤亡、患病等，分析其与灾区人口、特定年龄人群、职业、习惯、地理位置、时间分布等关系，来科学评价灾害的严重性，提出救灾技术措施和确定主要卫生服务内容，保护易感人群，为灾后进行建筑物结构或位置的易感性分析以及制定防灾减灾计划提供科学依据。     

神经网络及其在水库调洪演算中的应用

结合洪水灾害管理的特点建立了水库调洪演算的人工神经网络模型，阐述了其基本原理及算法，并结合某水库调洪演算实例说明了其应用。     

减缓贫水化过程的途径再议

根据贫水化的严重形势，应用水循环的原理，提出了减缓贫水化的几个主要途径，对解决城市淡水短缺有参考意义。     

NATURAL EROSION RATES AND THEIR PREDICTION IN THE IDAHO BATHOLITH1

ABSTRACT: Natural rates of surface erosion on forested granitic soils in central Idaho were measured in 40 m² bordered erosion plots over a period of four years. In addition, we measured a variety of site variables, soil properties, and summer rainstorm intensities in order to relate erosion rates to site attributes. Median winter erosion rates are approximately twice summer period rates, however mean summer rates are nearly twice winter rates because of infrequent high erosion caused by summer rainstorms. Regression equation models and regression tree models were constructed to explore relationships between erosion and factors that control erosion rates. Ground cover is the single factor that has the greatest influence on erosion rates during both summer and winter periods. Rainstorm intensity (erosivity index) strongly influences summer erosion rates, even on soils with high ground cover percentages. Few summer storms were of sufficient duration and intensity to cause rilling on the plots, and the data set was too small to elucidate differences in rill vs. interrill erosion. The regression tree models are relatively less biased than the regression equations developed, and explained 70 and 84 percent of the variability in summer and winter erosion rates, respectively.     

采掘诱发地震的成因及对策

根据煤或岩体的赋存特征及采动后的受力特点，将采矿及掘进等工程进行过程中诱发的地震灾害分为三类，即完整煤岩体受压应力作用的失稳、顶底板受拉应力型地震及断层走滑受剪型诱发地震。文章在分别分析其成因的基础上，研究了采矿诱发三种类型地震的发生条件，提出了防治发生诱发地震的对策。     

The community vs. the market and the state: Forest use inUttarakhand in the Indian Himalayas

Most writers on resource management presume that local populations, if they act in their self-interest, seldom conserve or protect natural resources without external intervention or privatization. Using the example of forest management by villagers in the Indian Himalayas, this paper argues that rural populations can often use resources sustainably and successfully, even under assumptions of self-interested rationality. Under a set of specified social and environmental conditions, conditions that prevail in large areas of the Himalayas and may also exist in other mountain regions, community institutions are more efficient in managing resources than either private individuals or the central government. In advancing this argument, the paper undermines the often dogmatic belief in the universal superiority of private forms of ownership and management.     

Adaptive management: Promises and pitfalls

Proponents of the scientific adaptive management approach argue that it increases knowledge acquisition rates, enhances information flow among policy actors, and provides opportunities for creating shared understandings. However, evidence from efforts to implement the approach in New Brunswick, British Columbia, Canada, and the Columbia River Basin indicates that these promises have not been met. The data show that scientific adaptive management relies excessively on the use of linear systems models, discounts nonscientific forms of knowledge, and pays inadequate attention to policy processes that promote the development of shared understandings among diverse stakeholders. To be effective, new adaptive management efforts will need to incorporate knowledge from multiple sources, make use of multiple systems models, and support new forms of cooperation among stakeholders.     

皖南山区中华猕猴桃的气候适宜性区划

本文在简要分析皖南山区气候特征的基础上，根据中华猕猴桃的生长习性，提出了发展只结猕猴桃的适宜栽培高度区划，为合理利用山区气候资源发展猕猴桃生产提供科学依据。     

旱涝灾害的一些基本问题初探

首先就旱涝灾害对人类的作用进行了分析，认为它影响范围最大，危害程度最深．其次．对旱涝灾害的成因、确定旱涝灾害的定量指标以及评估旱涝灾害的指标体系进行分析探讨；最后对国内防御旱涝灾害的能力做了总体评价，并对其所采取的预防，救抗灾措施等进行分析．     

淮河上游洪水灾害可公度信息系预测

可公度信息系是一种源于天文学的预测方法，其实质是寻求事物发生的经验关系。本文应用此法对淮河上游的洪水灾害进行了预测分析，结果表明淮河上游洪水灾害发生具有２ａ、４ａ、５ａ、７ａ、９ａ、１１ａ、１９ａ及７１ａ等多种周期，并在１９９７年、２０００年等年份的前后有可能发生大洪水。