洪水泥石流等自然灾害对旅游景区的破坏作用研究

通过泥石流灾害模拟模型与灾害损失率计算方法了解旅游景区的损失状况,研究自然灾害对旅游景区的破坏作用。旅游景区洪灾模拟模型由分流模型与汇流模型构成,根据泥石流多相流成分中固液两相分离原则构建泥石流分流模型;引用DEM数据得到泥石流流域栅格的汇流方向,根据经验模型计算汇流用时,采用八方向方法获取河道信息,基于这些数据构建泥石流模拟的汇流模型,采用ArcGis软件实时呈现该模型的泥石流灾害模拟效果;结合ArcGis软件显示的灾情数据,采用洪灾损失率计算方法获取旅游景区自然灾害损失率。实验结果表明,该模型计算旅游景区建筑损失率误差均小于5%,在有效模拟泥石流灾害的同时,可准确描述自然灾害对旅游景区的破坏作用。     

Effectiveness of lowering the blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limit for driving from 0.10 to 0.08 grams per deciliter in the United States

Objective: The current study evaluates of the effects of lowering the blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limit from 0.10 to 0.08?g/dL across all 50 states in the United States. Our objectives were to (1) estimate the effects of the 0.08?g/dL BAC limit on drinking driver fatal crash rates; (2) compare the effects from early-adopting states to the effects of late-adopting states; (3) determine the effects on drivers with low BACs (0.01–0.07?g/dL) and high BACs (0.08+ g/dL); and (4) estimate the lives saved since 1983 due to the adoption of 0.08?g/dL BAC laws.

Methods: Our study examined annual data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) for each jurisdiction from 1982 through 2014. Our basic outcome measure was the ratio of drinking drivers (BAC ≥0.01?g/dL) to nondrinking drivers (BAC?=?0.00?g/dL). Covariates included 0.10 BAC laws, administrative license revocation (ALR) laws, seat belt laws, minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) laws, and unemployment rates. We utilized autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for each state, where the implementation date of the law was modeled as a zero-order transfer function in the series, in addition to any extant trends that may have been occurring simultaneously. Before determining the specific impact of the implementation of 0.08?g/dL BAC laws, we conducted a time series analysis for each state. We tested for between-state mediating factors relating to our covariates.

Results: A total of 38 of the 51 jurisdictions showed that lowering the BAC limit was associated with reduced drinking driver fatal crash ratios, with 20 of those reductions being significant. The total effects showed a 10.4% reduction in annual drinking driver fatal crash rates, which is estimated to have saved an average of 1,736 lives each year between 1983 and 2014 and 24,868 lives in total. Implementing a BAC limit of 0.08?g/dL had significant impacts on both high- and low-BAC fatal crash ratios. Though early-adopting jurisdictions (1983–1999) demonstrated a larger decrease in fatal drinking driver crash ratios than did late-adopting jurisdictions (2000–2005), the results were not statistically significant (P?>?.05).

Conclusions: Our study of the effects of lowering the BAC from 0.10 to 0.08?g/dL in the United States from 1982 to 2014 showed an overall effect of 10.4% on annual drinking driver fatal crash rates, in line with other multistate studies. This research provides strong evidence of the relationship between lowering the BAC limit for driving and the general deterrent effect on impaired-driving fatal crash rates.     

基于SPA-VFRM的城市要害系统综合应急能力研究

为反映城市要害系统综合应急能力的发展现状及过程,在分析城市要害设施系统构成与面临的主要灾害类型基础上,提出从充分性、精确性、抵御性和及时性4个维度评价应急能力的思路,建立城市要害系统综合应急能力评估指标体系,并应用层次分析法与变异系数法确定指标综合权重,结合集对分析（SPA）与可变模糊识别模型（VFRM）构建城市要害系统综合应急能力的评价模型;运用该模型实证分析某市要害系统综合应急能力发展现状。实证表明:该市要害系统综合应急能力呈现“波浪式升高”的动态发展趋势,灾害抵御能力是构成综合应急能力的主要方面;3种方法的评价结果排序基本一致,表明该模型的评估结果稳健、可靠,能够有效反映城市要害系统综合应急能力发展情况。     

湖南省高效生态农业模式与综合技术研究总结

文章总结了湖南省10年来推行高效生态农业模式和推广综合农业技术的理论和实践,以及取得的效益。经过10年的努力,5个试点县的生态环境质量得到了显著改善,农业与农村经济得到了巨大发展;累计推广应用面积3.2663106 hm2,新增产值50.90亿元。     

复合垂直流构建湿地净化酞酸酯的初步研究

为考察湿地对特殊污染物酞酸酯的净化作用，在温室中建造了专门用于酞酸酯研究的2套下行流-上行流湿地小试系统，1号系统邻苯二甲酸二丁酯（DBP）和邻苯二甲酸二（2-乙基已基）酯（DEHP）污染负荷分别为19.86mgL^-1和3.16mgL^-1,2号系统DBP和DEHP污染负荷分别为9.84mgL^-1和1.58mgL^-1，试验时间为45d。水力负荷为420Ld^-1。结果表明：构建湿地对人工配置污水中的酞酸酯有很好的净化效果。平均去除率达到99.95%以上，出水酞酸酯质量浓度为10^-9级，均低于国家排放标准（GB8978-1996）.     

论流域水质与水量集成规划

“水量”与“水质”是流域大系统的两个特征,水环境研究偏重于水质,而水资源研究则更偏重水量,但是“质”与“量”是不能截然分开的,它们之间既相互关联,又互影响,相互制约,构成矛盾的统一体,基于这一出发点,本文从规划方法学的历史发展与流域水环境大系统的结构分析入手,系统阐述了提出流域水质与水量集成规划基本概念,目标及其策略与技术路线。     

南京地区农业资源的综合评价研究

客观、准确地评价地区农业资源,对于农业资源的开发和利用具有重要意义。本文从系统论观点出发,将地区农业资源分成自然资源和社会资源,在能够较好地反映系统结构特征、不同样点差异及满足易于收集、便于数量表示和定量处理等基本要求的基础上,选择了若干评价指标。利用综合指数法、区位商法等评价方法,对南京地区的主要农业资源（土地资源、气候资源与社会资源）进行了定量分析,并在此基础上,利用资源优势度分析法进行了综合评价。结果表明,南部小区的农业资源具有整体优势,南部和中部的资源利用较为合理,北部小区则具有较为丰富的后备资源。最后,根据各地资源要素的不同组合,简要给出了较适宜的开发途径,为该地农业资源的进一步开发与利用提供了依据。     

复合型人工湿地对抚仙湖入湖河道污水中氮的去除

在抚仙湖北岸构建复合型人工湿地污水处理系统,对窑泥沟入湖河道污水中氮的去除效果进行了试验研究,结果表明,系统水力负荷年平均为37mm/d,氮负荷年平均为3.315g/m2·d,对污水中NOx、NH+4、TON和TN去除率年平均分别为62.7%、53.8%、62.4%和57.5%.     

冲压模CAE技术及软件选型方法

综述了国内外常用冲压模具CAE分析软件的内容和种类 ,从实用角度讨论了CAE系统应用中诸如规划、软件选型、人员培训、应用推广等问题 ,对其选型和实施方法作了重点介绍