Consistent assessments of pathways toward sustainable development and climate stabilization

Many of the numerous difficult issues facing the world today involve relationships entailing trade‐offs and synergies. This study quantitatively assesses some alternative scenarios using integrated assessment models, and provides several indicators relating to sustainable development and climate change, such as indicators of income (per capita GDP), poverty, water stress, food access, sustainable energy use, energy security, and ocean acidification, with high consistencies among the indicators within a scenario. According to the analyses, economic growth helps improve many of the indicators for sustainable development. On the other hand, climate change will induce some severe impacts such as ocean acidification under a non‐climate intervention scenario (baseline scenario). Deep emission reductions, such as to 2°C above the pre‐industrial level, could cause some sustainable development indicators to worsen. There are complex trade‐offs between climate change mitigation levels and several sustainable development indicators. A delicately balanced approach to economic growth will be necessary for sustainable development and responses to climate change.     

生物质热电厂大气影响评价的研究

为确定生物质能发电环境方面的可行性,分析了生物质能发电的工艺流程,相比于火电的优缺点,并进行了生物质能热电联厂的大气环境影响评价研究。结果表明：预测评价的烟尘、SO2和NO2排放浓度分别为11,63mg／m^3、200．3mg／m^3和378．7mg／m^3,均远低于火力发电的排放值;在不同条件下、不同地点SO2和NO2的1小时、日均浓度也均远低于火力发电的浓度值。说明了生物质能发电在环境友好性方面具有明显的优势。     

Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management

A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a hypothesis exists that IWRM cannot be realised unless current management regimes undergo a transition toward adaptive management (AM). This includes a structured process of learning, dealing with complexity, uncertainty etc. We assume that it is no longer enough for managers and tool researchers to understand the complexity and uncertainty of the outer natural system-the environment. It is just as important, to understand what goes on in the complex and uncertain participatory processes between the water managers, different stakeholders, authorities and researchers when a specific tool and process is used for environmental management. The paper revisits a case study carried out 2001-2004 where the tool Bayesian networks (BNs) was tested for groundwater management with full stakeholder involvement. With the participation of two researchers (the authors) and two water managers previously involved in the case study, a qualitative interview was prepared and carried out in June 2006. The aim of this ex-post evaluation was to capture and explore the water managers' experience with Bayesian belief networks when used for integrated and adaptive water management and provide a narrative approach for tool enhancement.     

环境监测信息网络建设思路的探讨

介绍了环境监测信息网络的组成、作用于流通范围,提出了环境监测信息的构架、环境数据库的设计原则、环境监测应用软件的开发思路,以及环境监测信息网络的管理与维护措施。     

基于社会科学统计程序(SPSS)回归性分析的尾矿库事故预测模型

基于社会科学统计程序(SPSS)软件的分析功能,对调查研究中获取的尾矿库案例进行数据提炼和分类编码,找出相关因子并进行回归性分析。最终目的是找出尾矿库各个因素的内在联系,建立简单的尾矿库事故模型,从而可以初步预测尾矿库事故发生的可能性。该预测模型为尾矿库事故的研究提出了新方法,对于防灾减灾以及保护人民生命财产安全起到了积极作用。     

基于临水区域化工园区的整体安全研究

针对临水区域化工园区的生产特点及在整体安全方面存在的普遍问题,提出在临水区域化工园区内要进行合理布局,做到功能分区明确;同时需建立园区安全生产管理、监测预警及应急处置系统,主要是由固定危险源和移动危险源动态安全管理子系统、安全生产监测预警系统、突发事故应急处置平台等所组成;坚持安全监控信息化与标准化,对化工园区的整体安全性的提高将发挥巨大的作用,为建设"平安园区"打下坚实的基础。     

地震学综合定量预报方法在华东地区地震预测中的应用研究

本文应用地震学综合定量预报方法,结合区域地震活动特点,在华东地区进行了分区实际预报效能检验.结果表明该方法在华东地区有5个区域通过R值检验,效果较好,有4个区域未能通过R值检验;并对通过检验的区域地震活动趋势进行了分析.     

基于轮廓似然函数的PM_(10)极值浓度分析

以R软件为分析工具,选择GEV(generalized extreme value distribution)模型拟合四川省泸州市2003～2007年期间PM10每月最高日平均浓度数据,采用极大似然法估计模型的3个参数即位置参数、尺度参数、形状参数,利用所得的参数估计值计算得出某一标准值(如GB3095—1996)的重现期;进一步利用参数估计值计算轮廓似然函数,估计某一段固定时间间隔的PM10浓度的重现值以及其置信区间。结果表明,GEV模型能很好地拟合泸州市PM10数据,利用轮廓似然函数估计的不同时间间隔的重现值准确度高,统计结果可以为环境主管部门发布污染状况预警信息提供参考。     

山区土壤重金属空间插值性能的改进

山区土壤重金属监测中,密集均匀的布点采样困难大,成本高。根据稀疏非均匀样本数据准确预测山区土壤重金属空间分布,对可视化描述检测元素的分布及趋势具有重要意义。基于云南省楚雄市南部山区表层土壤中重金属锰、钒的采样数据,对集成径向基函数神经网络(IRBFANNs)和传统插值方法:反距离(IDW)、普通克里格(OK)、径向基函数神经网络(RBFANNs),进行了不同等级采样密度下的插值性能比较。结果表明,样本点数量减少时,传统预测方法的插值精度都有所下降,而IRBFANNs算法在样本点较少情况下能够保持最好的插值精确度和稳定性,有效改进了空间插值性能。     

Application of fuzzy sets and cognitive maps to incorporate social science scenarios in integrated assessment modelsA case study of urbanization in Ujung Pandang, Indonesia

Decision–support systems in the field of integrated water management could benefit considerably from social science knowledge, as many environmental changes are human-induced. Unfortunately the adequate incorporation of qualitative social science concepts in a quantitative modeling framework is not straightforward. The applicability of fuzzy set theory and fuzzy cognitive maps for the integration of qualitative scenarios in a decision–support system was examined for the urbanization of the coastal city of Ujung Pandang, Indonesia. The results indicate that both techniques are useful tools for the design of integrated models based on a combination of concepts from the natural and social sciences. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.