PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGIONAL ASSESSMENT: THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WATER RESOURCES OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Pacific Northwest (PNW) regional assessment is an integrated examination of the consequences of natural climate variability and projected future climate change for the natural and human systems of the region. The assessment currently focuses on four sectors: hydrology/water resources, forests and forestry, aquatic ecosystems, and coastal activities. The assessment begins by identifying and elucidating the natural patterns of climate vanability in the PNW on interannual to decadal timescales. The pathways through which these climate variations are manifested and the resultant impacts on the natural and human systems of the region are investigated. Knowledge of these pathways allows an analysis of the potential impacts of future climate change, as defined by IPCC climate change scenarios. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of hydrology and water resources to climate variability and change. We focus on the Columbia River Basin, which covers approximately 75 percent of the PNW and is the basis for the dominant water resources system of the PNW. The water resources system of the Columbia River is sensitive to climate variability, especially with respect to drought. Management inertia and the lack of a centralized authority coordinating all uses of the resource impede adaptability to drought and optimization of water distribution. Climate change projections suggest exacerbated conditions of conflict between users as a result of low summertime streamfiow conditions. An understanding of the patterns and consequences of regional climate variability is crucial to developing an adequate response to future changes in climate.     

Misuse of booster cushions among children and adults in Shanghai—an observational and attitude study during buckling up

Objective: Traffic crashes are one of the leading causes of fatalities among Chinese children. Booster cushion usage in China is low, and there are no studies showing how a population with limited experience handles booster cushions during buckling up. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the handling of and explore the attitudes toward booster cushions among children, parents, and grandparents in Shanghai.

Methods: An observational study including a convenience sample of 254 children aged 4–12 years was conducted in 2 passenger cars at a shopping center in Shanghai. Parents, grandparents, or the children themselves buckled up the child on 2 types of booster cushions, a 2-stage integrated booster cushion (IBC) and an aftermarket booster cushion (BC). The test participants were observed during buckling up, first without and then with instructions. The test leaders conducted structured interviews.

Results: Ninety-eight percent of the uninstructed participants failed to buckle up without identified misuse on the aftermarket booster cushion and 31% of those uninstructed on the integrated booster cushion. The majority of misuse was severe, including placing the belt behind the arm and the lap belt routing above the guiding loops. Instruction reduced misuse to 58% (BC) and 12% (IBC), respectively, and, in particular, severe misuse. Some misuse was related to limited knowledge of how to buckle up on the booster cushion, and some misuse was intentional in order to reduce discomfort.

The participants, both children and adults, reported that they preferred the IBC due to good comfort and convenience. Safety was reported as the main reason for adults using booster cushions in general, whereas children reported comfort as the most important motivation.

Conclusions: Education is needed to ensure frequent and correct use of booster cushions in China and to raise safety awareness among children and adults. Furthermore, it is important that the booster cushions offer intuitively correct usage to a population with limited experience of booster cushions.

This is the first study published on the handling of and attitude toward booster cushions after child restraints laws were introduced in Shanghai 2014.     

新型一体化装置处理村镇污水试验研究

依据我国村镇污水处理的技术要求及村镇污水水质、水量特点,提出了一种新型一体化装置。该装置采用活性污泥法与厌氧/缺氧相结合,并运用一体化的设计理念,集好氧、缺氧、厌氧于同一反应池。通过模拟村镇污水的运行,研究了新型一体化装置曝气/搅拌交替运行的最佳条件。结果表明:在水力停留时间为6 h,当曝气/搅拌交替运行的循环周期和时间比例分别为120 min和40∶80条件下,装置能同时实现对COD、TN、TP的去除,COD、TN、TP的平均去除率分别为86.1%、84.3%、77.4%,且出水水质保持稳定,出水COD、TN达到GB 18918—2002《城镇污水处理厂污染物排放标准》一级A标准,出水TP达到一级B标准。     

复合垂直流人工湿地微生物特征对典型污水的响应差异

污水性质是影响人工湿地微生物特征的重要因子,而微生物对人工湿地污染物净化功能的发挥至关重要. 运用两组IVCW(复合垂直流人工湿地)分别处理模拟生活污水和污水处理厂尾水,比较研究两组系统下行流、上行流池的基质酶活性及硝化反硝化强度,并通过脂肪酸甲酯图谱分析系统中的微生物群落结构,以解析人工湿地微生物特征对两种污水的响应差异. 结果表明:处理生活污水的IVCW下行流池中脱氢酶、过氧化氢酶、脲酶及硝酸盐还原酶活性均显著高于其他单元,四者平均值分别为其他单元的2.8~4.6、7.9~10.3、19.3~41.7和4.5~10.8倍. 处理生活污水IVCW基质的硝化强度是尾水处理系统对应单元的1.4~5.3倍(下行流)和1.3~3.9倍(上行流),而两组IVCW对应单元基质的反硝化强度之间无显著差异. IVCW下行流池中特征脂肪酸比值及微生物群落结构受污水类型的影响较小,均以厌氧细菌和革兰氏阳性菌为优势菌;上行流池微生物群落结构则受到污水类型的一定影响,真菌的相对丰度较高. 两种污水对IVCW基质酶活性和硝化强度的影响高于对反硝化强度和微生物群落结构的影响.      

Fast Calculating Surrogate Models for Leg and Head Impact in Vehicle–Pedestrian Collision Simulations

Objective: In previous research, a tool chain to simulate vehicle–pedestrian accidents from ordinary driving state to in-crash has been developed. This tool chain allows for injury criteria-based, vehicle-specific (geometry, stiffness, active safety systems, etc.) assessments. Due to the complex nature of the included finite element analysis (FEA) models, calculation times are very high. This is a major drawback for using FEA models in large-scale effectiveness assessment studies. Therefore, fast calculating surrogate models to approximate the relevant injury criteria as a function of pedestrian vehicle collision constellations have to be developed.

Method: The development of surrogate models for head and leg injury criteria to overcome the problem of long calculation times while preserving high detail level of results for effectiveness analysis is shown in this article. These surrogate models are then used in the tool chain as time-efficient replacements for the FEA model to approximate the injury criteria values. The method consists of the following steps: Selection of suitable training data sets out of a large number of given collision constellations, detailed FEA calculations with the training data sets as input, and training of the surrogate models with the FEA model's input and output values.

Results: A separate surrogate model was created for each injury criterion, consisting of a response surface that maps the input parameters (i.e., leg impactor position and velocity) to the output value. In addition, a performance test comparing surrogate model predictions of additional collision constellations to the results of respective FEA calculations was carried out. The developed method allows for prediction of injury criteria based on impact constellation for a given vehicle. Because the surrogate models are specific to a certain vehicle, training has to be redone for a new vehicle. Still, there is a large benefit regarding calculation time when doing large-scale studies.

Conclusion: The method can be used in prospective effectiveness assessment studies of new vehicle safety features and takes into account specific local features of a vehicle (geometry, stiffness, etc.) as well as external parameters (location and velocity of pedestrian impact). Furthermore, it can be easily extended to other injury criteria or accident scenarios; for example, cyclist accidents.     

Sustaining local values through river basin governance: community-based initiatives in Australia's Murray–Darling basin

Australia's Murray–Darling basin (MDB) water plan is an ambitious attempt to balance ecological, social and economic benefits, where a key aspect of the reform process has been recovery of water for environmental use. This paper focuses on a set of initiatives established by a local non-governmental organisation and an Indigenous community designed to engage with local values and priorities and incorporate them into this complex river basin governance system. Contrary to expectations that local and basin-scale interests and outcomes will diverge, the case studies reveal the ability for local groups to collaboratively manage both land and water resources to achieve locally important outcomes, and contribute to basin-scale outcomes. The analysis also highlights a progressive style of community-based environmental management for water management that utilises multiple institutional arrangements and planning pathways to protect the values that are important to local communities, and to nest those values within the broader effort to sustainably manage the basin's water resources.     

Kibale Forest Wild Coffee: Challenges to Market‐Based Conservation in Africa

Abstract: Declining rural security and pressures to reduce public‐sector expenditures in the late 1990s spurred efforts to develop alternative funding models for Uganda's Kibale National Park (KNP). The Wild Coffee Project, established in 1999 with support from the U.S. Agency for International Development, the World Bank, and the Ford Foundation, sought to develop a market for wild coffee that had been harvested traditionally from areas within today's KNP. The Kibale Forest Foundation, a U.S.‐based nonprofit organization, was created to legalize harvests, obtain third‐party wild and organic certification, and coordinate management between KNP, the coffee industry, and local communities. Although the project was successful in legalizing, harvesting, and processing the world's first certified wild and organic coffee, efforts to gain entry into the international marketplace failed. Chief among the lessons learned from this project is that for many wild‐grown products, the value of “the story”—in both human and conservation terms—is likely to far exceed actual product values. This value differential should be captured through high‐value niche markets to avoid low commodity pricing and subsequent pressures to improve financial returns through over harvesting. In addition, local producers should hold significant assets in whatever brands are developed, creating a shared‐equity approach that serves social responsibility goals, fosters project sustainability, and ensures a steady stream of positive stories for use in marketing to build brand value. Shared equity—in this case ownership interest in the intellectual property embodied in the brand—provides a second incentive beyond transactional profits that can only be realized if resource conservation is maintained.     

西南地区公路洪灾孕灾环境分区

以西南地区公路洪灾为研究对象，在孕灾因子分析基础上构建由6个因子组成的孕灾环境分区指标体系，利用层次分析和专家效度相耦合方法确定各指标权重，采用综合指数法建立孕灾环境综合指数评价模型。在ArcGIS软件平台支持下获取各评价指标数据，并计算得到各网格孕灾环境综合指数值，以县级行政区为单位进行公路洪灾孕灾等级区的划分。研究表明：西南地区孕育公路洪灾发生的环境条件较充分，孕灾环境综合指数值在3313~7746，孕灾分区主要集中在中易发区和高易发区，其中高易发区占整个研究区面积的5718%，中易发区占4039%，低易发区占243%，公路管理部门在汛期防治洪灾的任务较繁重     

Pragmatic Approaches for Water Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty1

Stakhiv, Eugene Z., 2011. Pragmatic Approaches for Water Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1183–1196. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00589.x Abstract: Water resources management is in a difficult transition phase, trying to accommodate large uncertainties associated with climate change while struggling to implement a difficult set of principles and institutional changes associated with integrated water resources management. Water management is the principal medium through which projected impacts of global warming will be felt and ameliorated. Many standard hydrological practices, based on assumptions of a stationary climate, can be extended to accommodate numerous aspects of climate uncertainty. Classical engineering risk and reliability strategies developed by the water management profession to cope with contemporary climate uncertainties can also be effectively employed during this transition period, while a new family of hydrological tools and better climate change models are developed. An expansion of the concept of “robust decision making,” coupled with existing analytical tools and techniques, is the basis for a new approach advocated for planning and designing water resources infrastructure under climate uncertainty. Ultimately, it is not the tools and methods that need to be revamped as much as the suite of decision rules and evaluation principles used for project justification. They need to be aligned to be more compatible with the implications of a highly uncertain future climate trajectory, so that the hydrologic effects of that uncertainty are correctly reflected in the design of water infrastructure.     

复合垂直流与潜流人工湿地沿程脱氮除磷对比研究

针对复合垂直流和潜流人工湿地对COD、TP、NH_4~+-N、NO~3~--N和TN的沿程去除规律进行了对比研究.结果表明,夏季复合垂直流人工湿地的去除效果均好于潜流人工湿地.对于复合垂直流人工湿地,污染物的去除主要集中在下行流池,且在进水端0～20 cm对COD、TP、NH_4~+-N和TN都有快速降解的过程.对于潜流人工湿地,进水端0～40 cm主要是COD和TP的快速降解沉淀,之后硝化作用逐渐加强,潜流人工湿地沿程均会发生反硝化作用,TN浓度基本呈均匀下降趋势.