种粮大户扩大农地规模意愿存在盲目性吗?

种粮大户扩大农地经营规模出于什么样的动机?是否存在盲目性?这一问题的答案不仅关系到粮食安全问题,也关乎到农村土地流转和农业适度规模经营政策等重大问题。本文基于2015年1月和8月对安徽省种粮大户的两次实地调研数据,建立heckman两阶段模型和解释结构模型(ISM),检验种粮大户扩大农地规模意愿是否存在盲目性并探寻导致规模扩张意愿的因素及其作用机制。研究发现:种粮大户扩大规模意愿强烈,且在不同农户间扩张意愿差异显著;影响其扩大规模意愿及意愿强度的浅层次因素为农户借贷能力,其中,民间借贷途径、正规金融贷款经验对扩大规模意愿的正向影响作用显著;中层次因素为家庭资源禀赋,其中家庭资本禀赋不足对农户扩大规模意愿及强度产生显著正向的影响,家庭劳动力数量对农户扩大规模意愿强度有显著负向影响;深层次因素为同行态度、家人态度、政策激励等外部环境因素,其中,同行态度、家人态度、获得荣誉称号、获得物质奖励等因素对扩大规模意愿的正向影响作用显著。研究结果表明,种粮大户规模扩展意愿存在一定的盲目性,究其原因:一是种粮大户强烈的逐利动机和较强的风险偏好,农户几乎完全褪去生计生产者的身份,家庭资源不足使得农户依赖于借贷满足扩大生产意愿,表现出对债务风险的偏好;二是粮食生产规模化进程中同行、家人的主观规范及一味求快贪大的行业政策激励导向。鉴于此,应加强现代企业管理知识培训,提升种粮大户科学管理和科学决策水平;建立粮食生产适度规模风险监测预警机制;调整政策导向、行业导向和舆论导向以抑制种粮大户的盲目扩张行为。     

面向驾驶员辅助系统的换道意图辨识方法研究

为提高先进驾驶员辅助系统工作效能,通过差异性分析选取了人-车-路特征参数,建立了支持向量机换道意图辨识模型.基于驾驶模拟器采集的数据,运用ROC曲线对比分析了不同参数组合、时窗、数据表达形式下模型的分类效果,结果表明以方向盘转角、加速度、车辆距车道线距离和驾驶人头动信息为特征参数,时窗为1.5s,以时窗内信息均值和方差表述特征参量可获得最优辨识效果.研究表明,模型在保证1 s前瞻性的同时辨识率可达93％.     

“If I know when you will arrive,I will let you walk to school:” The role of information technology

Introduction: Providing a sense of supervision for parents may facilitate their children’s involvement in physical outdoor activities, such as walking to school. Information technology (IT) solutions could bring more parental supervision, which in turn has the potential to enhance the proportion of walking trips to school. This study aimed to examine the role of a proposed hypothetical IT solution that gives parents real-time information about children’s entrance to and exit from the school, for the intention of parents letting their children walk to school. Method: A total of 820 questionnaires were distributed among pupils aged 7–9-years across 28 elementary schools to be completed by their parents (82% return rate). Results: Compared to the group of walking pupils, increased parental intention to let their children walk to school under the proposed solution could be explained by considerably more variables in the group of pupils who did not walk to school. The findings revealed that increased parental intention was higher among the walking pupils compared to the non-walking pupils. For the non-walking pupils, enhancement of walking facilities across the school area could potentiate the use of the proposed solution by the parents, which in turn may increase the proportion of walking on school trips. In addition, boy pupils, the pupils whose parents evaluated walking more favorable, those from lower socioeconomic backgrounds, and those living in close proximity to the school could more likely benefit by shifting from non-walking to walking modes of travel, after implementation of the solution.     

员工不安全行为意向的影响因子研究

为探究员工不安全行为意向的主要前因变量,基于计划行为理论(TPB),结合矿山企业安全管理实际,编制了包含21个项目的不安全行为意向量表。通过对240名煤矿一线作业人员进行调查和探索性因子分析(EFA),形成不安全行为意向的正式量表和探索性因子结构模型;再对7个煤矿735名一线作业人员进行调查并进行验证性因子研究(CFA)。结果表明:编制修订的不安全行为意向量表信度、效度较高;员工不安全行为意向受不安全行为态度、班组安全氛围、行为风险认知偏差等3个因子的影响;企业应从行为态度改变、班组安全氛围构建、行为风险认知偏差校正等方面,干预员工不安全行为意向,控制不安全行为的发生。     

Mobile phone use while driving: Predicting drivers’ answering intentions and compensatory decisions

The current study considered, for the first time, compensatory decisions within the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) to explain why people use mobile phones while driving. The effects of age, gender, and mobile phone mode on respondents’ answering intentions and compensatory decisions were mainly examined. A series of questions were administered to 333 drivers (ages 25-59), which included (1) demographic measures, (2) scales that measured prior mobile use activities in both driving and ordinary contexts, (3) a question to measure drivers’ perceptions of the safety of hands-free phones, and (4) TPB measures, which measured answer intention and two compensatory behavioural decisions (i.e., reminding the caller that he/she is driving, limiting the length of a conversations (including perceived its limits)), along with predictive variables. Drivers reported a moderate likelihood of answering intention and a strong tendency to engage in the two compensatory behaviours. Answering intention and compensatory decisions, perceived behavioural control, perceived risk, and usage frequency were more dependent on mobile phone mode and age group than gender. The regression models explained 64% and 67% of the variance in answering intention in the handheld and hands-free scenario separately. Attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioural risk and control (PBRC), and prior answering behaviour emerged as common predictors. The predictive models explained 31% and 37% of the variance for perceived limits of a conversation length in handheld and hands-free scenarios, respectively. Answering intention and PBRC consistently predicted most of the variance (handheld: 28%; hands-free: 32%) for this compensatory perception limits. The theoretical and practical implications of these results are discussed.     

Cross‐cultural comparisons between the earthquake preparedness models of Taiwan and New Zealand

Taiwan and New Zealand are both located in the Pacific Rim where 81 per cent of the world's largest earthquakes occur. Effective programmes for increasing people's preparedness for these hazards are essential. This paper tests the applicability of the community engagement theory of hazard preparedness in two distinct cultural contexts. Structural equation modelling analysis provides support for this theory. The paper suggests that the close fit between theory and data that is achieved by excluding trust supports the theoretical prediction that familiarity with a hazard negates the need to trust external sources. The results demonstrate that the hazard preparedness theory is applicable to communities that have previously experienced earthquakes and are therefore familiar with the associated hazards and the need for earthquake preparedness. The paper also argues that cross‐cultural comparisons provide opportunities for collaborative research and learning as well as access to a wider range of potential earthquake risk management strategies.     

Are “job hoppers” trapped in hedonic treadmills? Effects of career orientations on newcomers' attitude trajectories

Joining a new organization to change jobs is an influential event in an employee's career. Thus, inter-organizational job changes have sparked growing scholarly interest, especially in the temporal dynamics involved in detaching from organizations and adapting to new ones. While it is widely accepted that employees adapt differently to job changes, the influence of employees' career orientations on changes in job attitudes has not yet been considered. This is surprising given that a key difference between self-centered and organization-centered career orientations is a positive attitude toward job changes. Building on hedonic adaptation, we examined how career orientations influence changes in job satisfaction and turnover intention throughout a job change. We compared self-centered and organization-centered employees using random coefficient modeling on two longitudinal data sets with voluntary job changers. Our results illustrate that self-centered career orientations foster a stronger decline in job satisfaction with the new employer, as well as a larger increase in turnover intention, than organization-centered career orientations. In contrast, employees with organization-centered career orientations experienced an upward trend in job satisfaction toward the end of the first year. Our findings offer important implications for research on the determinants of job attitude trajectories when individuals join a new organization.     

基于环境匹配的人才流动研究

人才所在地区的经济环境、生活环境和工作环境等对人才与环境的相容性有着特殊的影响.人才基于对自身与环境匹配情况的内在判断做出地域选择.因此.人才流动被看成是人才改善自身福利的手段之一,它实现人才与环境的"匹配".以人--环境匹配理论为基础,本文探讨了环境与人才的一致性匹配和补偿性匹配对人才流动的影响,提出了研究假设,并对412名来自企业、政府和事业单位的人员进行问卷调查和实证分析.结果表明,在目前经济环境下,环境的文化、气氛、价值观、目标、规范等基本特征与人才的人格、价值观、目标、态度等方面的一致性匹配对人才的流动倾向不具有显著影响,而环境的社会生活供给、财政、职业发展空间、工作任务、人际关系与人才需求的补偿性匹配则对人才流动具有显著的负向影响.因此,组织应从有竞争力的薪酬管理、多向的职业发展通道、科学的职位体系设计和融洽的人际环境等方面入手留住人才.     

区域分异视角下乡村企业入城意愿分析——基于浙、豫、川三省193家企业的实证研究

乡村企业入城是实现我国城镇化发展的基本路径。利用浙江、河南、四川三省193家乡村企业的实地调查数据,运用多元有序Logistic回归模型进行相关验证,实证分析我国东中西部三个省份的乡村企业入城意愿及其影响因素。通过对调研数据的描述统计发现:有58.55%的乡村企业主有入城意愿,仅有21.24%的乡村企业主不愿意或非常不愿意搬迁,集群环境、土地价格、运输成本等是企业愿意搬迁的主要原因,土地价格政策、当地经济发展水平、产品产销信息、集群环境是影响企业搬迁方向的重要因素,当地的土地、税收和融资等政府政策对于企业是否入城产生重要影响。通过多元有序Logistic回归模型估计结果表明:企业总资产、土地价格、运输成本、集群环境、与政府关系对入城意愿有显著负向影响,税收政策有显著正向影响,这些影响因素主要是通过影响企业的显性成本(土地价格、运输成本),以及企业的交易成本、寻租成本等隐性成本(集群环境、与政府关系和税收政策),进而影响企业的迁移意愿,且浙江、河南与四川三地计量结果差异显著。在上述研究的基础上,本文提出相应的政策建议。     

废旧手机回收意愿影响因素的实证研究 ——基于兰州市居民的调查

随着手机的不断更新升级,消费者更换手机的频率越来越高,废旧手机的回收引起了社会关注.基于兰州市居民的调查,通过问卷数据,探讨了废旧手机回收意愿的影响因素.结果表明:环保知识、经济动机、回收渠道对废旧手机回收意愿有显著正向影响,且影响程度依次递减,但主观规范对废旧手机的回收意愿并没有显著影响.最后提出促进兰州市居民废旧手...