The Role of Abatement Costs in GHG Permit Allocations: A Global Stabilization Scenario Analysis

Our objective is to propose permit allocation schemes that lead to a fair distribution of the net abatement cost among regions in a global greenhouse gas (GHG) stabilization scenario. We use a detailed technology-based energy model, World-MARKAL, to determine efficient abatement decisions, and to calculate the regional gross abatement costs (before permit allocation and trading). The net abatement costs are then calculated and used for different permit allocation schemes.     

决策树模型在水环境监测网络中选取代表性样点的应用

地表水体中的硝酸盐污染已经成为全球关注的热点环境问题之一。现今,国内外均建立了相关的监测网络对地表水体的水质实施长期监测,但是却导致大量的监测数据累积,给后续的科学研究工作带来了不便,尤其是在庞大的监测网络中如何选取有代表性样点的研究点则成为急需解决的问题之一。以比利时弗拉芒地区地表水的长期监测物理化学指标为例,利用决策树模型评估地表水样点的硝酸盐污染来源专家分类的有效性,为点位优化提供理论依据。原有监测点位的污染源专家分类和模型输出的可匹配率为80%,优化后监测点位从原有47个点降低到30个点,提高了监测工作效率。     

街道峡谷内车辆流动对反应性污染物传播特性影响的模拟研究

采用CFD（计算流体力学）数值模拟的研究方法,使用动网格技术,分析简单光化学反应下车辆流动及不同来流风速对双车道三维街道峡谷内污染物传播特性的影响.结果表明,车辆移动改变了峡谷内气流结构,以及背风侧与迎风侧活性污染物浓度分布的相对大小,有利于污染物在峡谷中的传播扩散;来流风使机动车尾气向建筑背风侧汇聚,并随着风速增加而加强,对近迎风侧车道车辆尾气淹没射流的影响比近背风侧车道大.在车辆移动与来流风的综合作用下,污染物的扩散能力得到显著增强.     

基于3种时间序列模型的九龙江河流库区藻华预测

湖库富营养化和有害藻华是全球性生态环境问题,藻华预测与早期预警是保障湖库水源地供水安全的关键技术.如何基于高频水生态在线监测数据进行藻华的实时动态预测成为水生态管理领域的重大需求.本研究以福建省九龙江江东库区(水源地)为例,利用3年连续观测的逐时平均总叶绿素a浓度数据,对比研究了SARIMA、Prophet和LSTM(长短期记忆神经网络)3种时间序列模型在藻华(日平均叶绿素a大于15μg·L^-1)预测方面的效果.结果表明：(1)时间序列模型要求参数少,灵活性强,能清晰反映水质特征和未来变化趋势,可弥补传统藻类监测预警方法的局限性;(2)基于深度学习框架的LSTM模型,具有独特的迭代优化算法,对藻类非线性变化特征的识别和预测能力较强,其总叶绿素a逐日预测和7日预测效果均显著优于SARIMA模型和Prophet模型;(3)输入数据长度会在一定程度上影响模型预测效果,最优的输入数据时间长度为7 d;输入数据频率对预测效果也有影响,在预测非藻华日时,小时数据的预测效果优于日频率数据;在预测藻华日时,两种频率数据无显著差异,但日频率数据能更准确识别藻华日特征.总结起来,基于...     

深圳市纯电动泥头车减污降碳协同效益评价研究

新能源汽车替代传统燃油车是减缓能源与环境压力并如期实现“双碳”目标的重要途径,但在重型车辆、工程车等领域推广较为缓慢.深圳市自2019年开始推广使用纯电动泥头车,并计划到2025年新能源环卫、泥头车数量达到8000辆.为深入探究纯电动泥头车替代柴油泥头车所产生的减污降碳协同效益,本研究基于一手调研数据,采用生命周期评价方法并结合GREET模型,对比分析了两类泥头车在燃料周期、车辆周期和配套设施周期3个周期内的能耗、主要空气污染物及碳排放情况.结果表明,纯电动泥头车全生命周期内能耗较柴油泥头车可减少36.2%,主要污染物如NO_x、SO₂、VOC和PM_2.5降幅分别达81.3%、37.8%、29.0%和25.9%;温室气体(GHGs)排放强度减少14.4%,基准情境下2030年和2050年推广纯电动泥头车GHGs累计减排量分别为71.4万t和258.5万t.尽管节能减排效果显著,但其初始购置和售后维保成本过高是制约其推广的最主要因素,通过降低车辆及电池生产制造成本、提高充换电设施数量及售后维保能力等有望加快泥头车纯电动化.     

市级国土空间规划核心指标纵向传导研究——以湖南省常德市为例

核心指标纵向层级传导作为市级国土空间规划的关键内容,对市域国土空间格局优化及规划统筹具有重要意义。针对当前指标传导研究不充分、不精细等问题,遵循“核心传导指标选择→指标传导技术逻辑构建→情景模拟预测”的研究思路,以常德市为例研究其2035年国土空间规划“市→县（区）”的核心指标传导。结果表明：（1）基于“指标全域总量预测—指标空间布局模拟—指标分区分类传导”的传导技术逻辑,通过SD与GeoSOS-FLUS模型的耦合集成利用,可有效实现市级国土空间规划核心指标“自上而下”与“自下而上”相结合的科学传导。（2）构建“人—地—业”协调的常德市国土空间利用SD模型,预测获得2035年市域核心指标总量,相应国土利用综合效益达12994.25亿元,相比2018年提升207.75%。（3）从指标传导结果来看,2035年常德市各县（市、区）社会经济类指标除常住人口规模指标外均保持增长趋势,边界类指标实现“只增不减”,用地类指标变化各异,但总体契合常德市主体功能区建设方向,核心指标传导结果符合实际。     

Application of Agriculture‐Developed Demographic Analysis for the Conservation of the Hawaiian Alpine Wekiu Bug

Insects that should be considered for conservation attention are often overlooked because of a lack of data. The detailed information necessary to assess population growth, decline, and maximum range is particularly difficult to acquire for rare and cryptic species. Many of these difficulties can be overcome with the use of life table analyses and heat energy accumulation models common in agriculture. The wekiu bug (Nysius wekiuicola), endemic to the summit of one volcanic mountain in Hawaii, is a rare insect living in an environmentally sensitive alpine stone desert, where field‐based population assessments would be inefficient or potentially detrimental to natural and cultural resources. We conducted laboratory experiments with the insects by manipulating rearing temperatures of laboratory colonies and made detailed observations of habitat conditions to develop life tables representing population growth parameters and environmental models for wekiu bug phenology and demographic change. Wekiu bugs developed at temperatures only found in its environment on sunny days and required the thermal buffer found on cinder cones for growth and population increase. Wekiu bugs required approximately 3.5 months to complete one generation. The bug developed optimally from 26 to 30 °C, temperatures that are much higher than the air temperature attains in its elevational range. The developmental temperature range of the species confirmed a physiological reason why the wekiu bug is only found on cinder cones. This physiology information can help guide population monitoring and inform habitat restoration and conservation. The wekiu bug was a candidate for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, and the developmental parameters we quantified were used to determine the species would not be listed as endangered or threatened. The use of developmental threshold experiments, life table analyses, and degree day modeling can directly inform otherwise unobservable habitat needs and demographic characteristics of extremely rare insects. Aplicación de Análisis Demográfico de Desarrollo Agrícola para la Conservación del Insecto Weiku Alpino Hawaiano     

恐惧诉求对职业驾驶员安全驾驶态度和行为意向的影响

研究以EPPM模型作为理论框架,探讨恐惧诉求对危险驾驶行为(超速和不系安全带)态度和行为意向的作用。54名职业驾驶员在观看交通安全恐惧诉求录像后,完成安全驾驶行为问卷。回归分析表明恐惧诉求的交通事故录像能够改变驾驶员对超速及不系安全带驾驶的态度和行为意向,但作用不完全一致。恐惧情绪唤起通过恐惧情感所引发的威胁评估过程中介对不超速行为意向的影响。最后,对研究的局限和未来的研究进行讨论。     

Using the land transformation model to forecast vacant land

Growing or shrinking cities can experience increases in vacant land. As urban populations and boundaries fluctuate, holes can open in once tight urban areas. Many cities chase growth-oriented approaches to dealing with vacancies. It is critical to understand land-use alteration to accurately predict transformations of physical change in order to make better informed decisions about this phenomenon. This research utilizes the land transformation model (LTM), an artificial neural networking mechanism in Geographic Information Systems, to forecast vacant land. Variable influence on vacant land prediction and accuracy of the LTM is assessed by comparing input factors and patterns, using time-series data from 1990 to 2010 in Fort Worth, Texas, USA. Results indicate that the LTM can be useful in simulating vacant land-use changes but more precise mechanisms are necessary to increase accuracy. This will allow for more proactive decisions to better regulate the process of urban decline and regeneration.     

Numerical simulation of water curtain application for ammonia release dispersion

Using water curtain system to forced mitigate ammonia vapor cloud has been proven to be an effective measure. Currently, no engineering guidelines for designing an effective water curtain system are available, due to lack of understanding of complex interactions between ammonia vapor cloud and water droplets, especially the understanding of ammonia absorption into water droplets. This paper presents numerical calculations to reproduce the continuous ammonia release dispersion with and without the mitigating influence of a downwind water curtain using computational fluid dynamic (CFD) software ANSYS Fluent 14.0. The turbulence models k–ɛ and RNG were used to simulate the ammonia cloud dispersion without downwind water curtain. The simulated results were compared with literature using the statistical performance indicators. The RNG model represents better agreement with the experimental data and the k–ɛ model generates a slightly lesser result. The RNG model coupled with Lagrangian discrete phase model (DPM) was used to simulate the dilution effectiveness of the water curtain system. The ammonia absorption was taken into account by means of user-defined functions (UDF). The simulated effectiveness of water curtains has good agreements with the experimental results. The effectiveness of water mitigation system with and without the ammonia absorption was compared. The results display that the effectiveness mainly depends on the strong air entrainment enhanced by water droplets movement and the ammonia absorption also enhances the effectiveness of water curtain mitigation system. The study indicates that the CFD code can be satisfactorily applied in design criteria for an effective mitigation system.