基于GAMs模型分析成都市气象因子交互作用对O3浓度变化的影响

为探究成都市大气环境中气象因子交互作用对臭氧（8h浓度平均最大值,统一用O₃表示）浓度变化的影响特征,利用成都市2014~2019年逐日大气污染物资料以及同期的气象资料,采用广义相加模型（generalized additive models,GAMs）分析气象因子对O₃浓度变化的影响效应.结果表明,单影响因素的GAMs模型中,O₃浓度与最高气温、日照时数、相对湿度、风速、降水量、最大混合层厚度（maximum mixed depth,MMD）和通风系数（ventilation coefficient,VC）间均呈非线性关系,无论全年还是夏季,最高气温、日照时数、MMD和相对湿度对O₃浓度影响均较大,值得注意的是,夏季相对湿度和降水量对O₃浓度变化的影响较全年更加显著.在构建O₃浓度变化的多气象因子GAMs模型中,除平均风速以外的其他气象因子共同作用对O₃浓度变化有显著影响,就全年而言,构建的GAMs模型判定系数（R²）为0.849,方差解释率为85.1%,最高气温是全年O₃浓度变化的主导影响因素;夏季GAMs模型的R²为0.811,方差解释率为81.3%,而夏季最高气温和MMD同为重要影响因素.GAMs交互效应模型中,就全年而言,最高气温与日照时数、相对湿度、降水量间交互作用,以及日照时数和MMD间交互作用对O₃浓度变化影响显著,结合三维可视化图形直观分析气象因子交互作用对O₃浓度变化的影响特征,发现强高温+强日照+MMD （2000 m左右）+无降水条件协同作用下有利于O₃的生成;就夏季而言,仅最高气温分别与日照时数和VC交互作用对O₃浓度的影响显著,夏季强高温+强日照+水平方向小风速有利于近地层O₃浓度的生成.运用GAMs模型能够对O₃污染的主导气象因子进行识别,并定量化分析气象因子单效应及其交互作用对O₃浓度变化的影响特征,对O₃浓度污染防控研究具有重要指示意义.     

基于网络城市理念的城市群布局 ——以苏锡常城市群为例

在经济全球化和知识经济迅猛发展的背景下，基于快速交通、信息通讯网络及范围经济的新型城市集合形态--网络城市开始形成。网络城市指的是两个或更多的原先彼此独立、存在潜在功能互补的城市，借助快速高效的交通走廊和通讯设施连接起来、彼此合作形成的富有创造力的城市集合体。苏锡常城市群是长江三角洲地区重要的城市群，存在建设网络城市的诉求和可能性。首先对网络城市的理论进行综述；然后阐述了建设苏锡常网络城市的战略意义，从城市功能整合、支撑体系建设、功能空间组织和协调规则构建4个方面对苏锡常网络城市布局进行了探讨；最后指出建设苏锡常网络城市是提升苏锡常城市群国际竞争力，实现经济、社会和环境可持续发展的重要战略。     

COMPUTER-AIDED PLANNING FOR MULTIPLE-PURPOSE RESERVOIR OPERATING POLICIES1

ABSTRACT: Computer-aided planning (CAP) for multiple-purpose reservoir operations involves use of state-of-the-art simulation and optimization methods, color graphic displays, and interactive computing interfaces. These technologies were integrated into a coherent system that has user-friendly interfaces to help the process of communicating reservoir system operations, solicit planning participant preferences and valuation judgments, and provide understandable feedback of system performance. The CAP system was imbedded in a comprehensive public involvement program that paralleled the reservoir operating policy modeling process, as part of multipurpose reservoir operations planning on the Great Plains Reservoirs in Colorado. Experience with the approach indicates the involved publics can quickly learn of reservoir system limitations and opportunities, and can indeed participate in the operations planning process.     

火灾保险与消防管理互动模式研究

在对国内外该领域研究现状进行分析的基础上,提出了我国目前需要研究的主要问题、研究的基本思路和方法以及研究的重点和难点。将国外先进的理论和方法与我国消防监督管理的实践相结合,探索一条适合中国国情的消防管理模式。为完善我国消防与保险方面的相关技术与法规提供了建议,对完善我国消防监督管理的体制、充分发挥火灾保险的重要作用以及调动全社会参与消防的积极性等方面提供了重要的决策依据。     

突发事件应急会商与预案交互生成系统设计与实现

随着近些年不断发生的各类突发事件以及相关应急主管单位的重视,以应急准备与应急预案为核心的应急管理体系快速发展,但如何能够将应急管理理论与方法应用于应急实践,尤其是各类突发事件的应急处置中,是亟待解决的难点之一。从实际突发事件应急响应与处置的业务需求与流程分析入手,提出1套具有“应急会商”与“预案交互生成”功能的信息化系统设计方案与实现思路,从业务分析、功能框架、系统架构与数据结构、系统实现等4个方面进行针对性讨论,研究结果表明:提出的系统平台不但从业务层面上具有良好的功能符合性与可操作性,而且从技术层面上具有合理的系统架构与适当的系统扩展性,可为相关的应急管理系统平台的工程建设与系统集成提供参考。     

DEVELOPING AND IMPLEMENTING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS: A CRITIQUE AND A CHALLENGE1

ABSTRACT: Computer-based models together with their interactive interfaces are typically called decision support systems. DSSs are interactive computer-based information providers. The common objective of all DSSs, regardless of the frameworks, methodologies, or techniques used, is to provide timely information that supports human decision makers - at whatever level of decision making. The informational needs of the decision making process are the key considerations that motivate the development of DSSs. The growth of DSS development and use has been substantial. In spite of this impressive growth, computer-aided decision support systems can still be improved and made more useful to those they are intended to support. Researchers and practitioners, and indeed the computer industry, continue to identify ways of doing this. This paper reviews some of these needs and opportunities by focusing on the process of successful DDS development and implementation. The paper outlines an approach and some guidelines for developing DSSs. The approach emphasizes and requires considerable interaction between the DSS developers (analysts) and the DSS users (decision makers). This interaction and feedback is required throughout the entire DSS building, testing and evaluation (debugging), and implementation processes. The paper concludes by identifying some research needs and opportunities affecting DSS development and effective use.     

EFFICIENTLY REDUCING NONPOINT PHOSPHORUS LOADS TO LAKES AND RESERVOIRS1

ABSTRACT: Several problems that make it difficult to deal with water pollution from cropland are identified. The most immediate need is for a rational framework for determining where conservation programs can make an impact on eutrophication problems in reservoirs draining rural watersheds. This includes estimating the level of control that would be required for each local farm situation and the economic impacts for the planning area. A modeling approach is suggested for a planning area in Southeastern Pennsylvania.     

纸类和塑料类生活垃圾共热解交互作用的热重研究

采用热重实验方法对纸张和不同塑料共热解的协同作用进行了研究。实验结果表明:纸巾和不同种类塑料共热解时,会产生不同程度的交互作用,与线性加权实验结果相比,偏离程度由大到小依次为PVC>PP>PS>HDPE>LDPE>塑胶。其中,纸巾/PVC的偏离高达58.4%;纸巾和LDPE、HDPE,以及塑胶的交互作用则可以忽略不计。纸巾/PVC、纸巾/PP、纸巾/PS共热解的交互作用分别发生在纸巾、PP、PS的热解阶段,这3种组分相应的热解特征参数及动力学参数发生了变化,需要修正。     

华北平原农田管理措施对冬小麦-夏玉米轮作系统N2O和CH4排放的影响

华北平原是我国重要的粮食生产基地,其农业生产对N_2O和CH_4也具有重要影响.本研究设置包括3类不同农田管理措施的田间试验,即免耕(No-tillage,N)/旋耕(Rotary,T)、秸秆清茬(Cleaning,S0)/还田(Straw,S1)以及不同氮肥水平(常规氮肥(F2),优化氮肥(F1)和空白处理(F0)),分析对产量、N_2O和CH_4排放的影响以及与土壤性状的关系.结果表明,优化氮肥能保持和当地常规氮肥水平相同的粮食产量,同时可以有效降低温室气体CO2-eq(45.4%).秸秆还田可以显著降低N_2O的排放,其中在夏玉米季效果尤为明显.施用氮肥能够抑制土壤对CH_4的吸收.夏玉米季是N_2O排放的主要时期(N_2O累积排放占全年的59%~78%).土壤NO-3含量、WFPS和土壤温度都对N_2O有显著影响.主效应和交互作用分析证明,氮肥水平对两季作物产量、秸秆还田对冬小麦的产量有显著影响;耕作方式与氮肥水平、秸秆还田分别对两季作物产量和CH_4有极显著的交互作用,秸秆处理和氮肥水平对CH_4排放和冬小麦产量有显著的交互作用;三因素的交互作用体现在对冬小麦产量和两季作物的总产量有显著影响.在华北平原当前氮肥水平上降低30%仍能维持和当地常规农业管理措施相同的作物产量,降低N_2O和CH_4排放45%以上,秸秆还田体现出降低N_2O排放以及长期提高土壤有机碳水平的效益.     

A framework for assessing the accountability of local governance arrangements for adaptation to climate change

Accountability has hardly been studied in the governance of climate change adaptation. This paper develops a framework for assessing the accountability of interactive governance arrangements for local adaptation. This framework is based on five important accountability mechanisms: Clear responsibilities and mandates, Transparency, Political oversight, Citizen control and Checks and sanctions. For illustration purposes, the proposed framework is applied to the case of a Dutch local adaptation governance arrangement. The application shows that the five proposed mechanisms and their operationalizations offer a valid assessment of the accountability of such arrangements. It also raises some challenges, such as the tensions between accountability and flexibility, legitimacy and effectiveness; the potentially important roles of trust and of the political skills of central actor(s) in the arrangement in raising accountability, and the potential need to distinguish between arrangements for policy planning and for service delivery.