我国灾害现代管理模式的构想

分析了世界多个国家的灾害应急管理模式、特点,讨论了我国灾害管理模式的现状及存在的问题,从立法、机构设置、应急机制和体系建设等方面提出了建设我国灾害现代应急管理模式的构想.     

广西东南部高温灾害气候特征分析

利用1953至2002年广西玉林市气温资料,统计分析了桂东南高温灾害天气气候特征,并概括出造成桂东南高温灾害天气的主要环流形势类型,总结出各种高温灾害天气环流形势的中短期预报方法和指标.     

3S技术在灾害监测预测中的应用及展望

本文分析了现代灾害的特点及3S技术的发展,总结了国内外利用3S技术在灾害监测预警中应用的现状,探讨了未来3S技术在这一领域应用的趋势及重点研究问题.     

消防侦察机器人的系统集成原则

消防侦察机器人可以代替消防队员从事危险的灾情侦察任务.从灾害现场的实际要求出发,提出了消防侦察机器人需要面对的具体侦察任务和应该具备的基本功能,以及在系统的集成过程中需要遵循的原则.     

中国救灾物资代储点优化布局研究

优化国家救灾物资代储点布局的目标是要提高我国的自然灾害应急响应能力和救灾时效性.构建了自然灾害发生过程中交通应急响应能力的评价指标和模型,包括陆地综合通行能力指数、空运通达时间和陆地交通通达时间,编制了相应的数字地图.结果表明:全国陆地交通综合通行能力在地域上是不平衡的,东南地区远远大于西北地区,其中以环渤海、长三角、珠三角地区最大;从通达时间来看,要以现有的10个代储点为中心来覆盖全国,空运至少需要7h,陆地交通运输至少需要48h,这使得许多地区的交通应急响应能力因运输时间过长而降低.最后,提出了国家救灾物资代储点的优化布局方案,建议新增6个代储点,以此实现灾中空运3h,全国各地均可送达救灾物资;陆运6h,全国近90%的地区可送达救灾物资.     

大庆地区地面沉降问题初探

地面沉降是目前国内外常见的典型地质灾害之一.简要介绍了大庆地区的地质环境及地下水开采历史和现状,利用已有的资料对大庆地区由于地下水开采而引起的地面沉降量进行了预测,对其地面沉降问题进行了初步探讨.研究结果对进一步开展大庆地区地面沉降研究、国土资源整治和地质灾害防治等工作有一定的参考价值.     

多层砖房震害预测方法评述

多层砖房震害预测是城市防震减灾的基础工作之一.经过几十年的探索和研究,已经形成了多种预测其震害的方法,其中常用的主要方法有易损性概率分析法即半经验半理论法、强度判别法、延性系数判别法、模糊类比法、人工神经网络法和结构理论计算法等.着重对部分方法进行了总结评述,并进一步探讨了它们的特点与适用性.     

Lessons in logistics from Somalia

By February 1981 the refugee relief operation in Somalia was close to breakdown. The Governor of Somalia and the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) contracted the agency CARE to manage the logistics of the operation. By August 1981 over 99 % of food received at Mogadishu was reaching the camps. Here we describe this apparent success, and attempt to diagnose the contributing factors. Chief among these are dynamic leadership, 'systems' management, adaptability of personnel, the use of professional Indian food monitors in the camps, and the support given by the Government. The chief qualification on the success of the operation has been the continued dependency on expatriate expertise.
General conclusions are offered relating to the management of logistics in relief operations. The most important conclusion is that there is a prime need for logistics to be centralized in a single organization at the start of major emergencies. We point to the current inadequacy in an international relief system which fails to ensure this, and suggest that a new or existing part of the United Nations family be given a 'brief for in-country logistics' to become a UN Emergency Logistics Office.     

The long-term impact of a man-made disaster: An examination of a small town in the aftermath of the Three Mile Island Nuclear Reactor Accident

This paper explores the long-term effects of a nuclear accident on residents' perceptions of their physical and mental health, their trust of public officials, and their attitudes toward the future risks of nuclear power generation In their community. We find that in the period after the accident at Three Mile Island that there are constant or Increasing levels of distress reported by community residents. We conclude that the effects of a technological disaster may often be more enduring than those natural disaster and that greater research efforts should be made to Investigate the long-term consequences of man-made catastrophies of all types.     

火灾情况下不同楼层对大学生疏散心理和行为反应影响的研究

火灾情况下不同楼层对大学生疏散心理和行为反应有重要影响.选择住宿的高职学生1141人作被试,采用统计分析法对不同楼层的学生进行问卷后统计分析结果显示:在火灾情景下,学生居住的楼层越高,从众心理越强,从众心理有随着楼层的增高而增强的趋势;楼层较高的学生比楼层较低的学生适应性行为多,会采取灭火行为,能做到就近逃生等;楼层最低的学生比楼层最高的学生能很快的表现出帮助他人脱离火场的能力和行为,但是楼层最高的学生比楼层居中的学生相互救助的意识强;楼层居中的学生比楼层较高的学生存在较强的惊慌心理.