我国堰塞湖致因分析及灾害链构建研究*

为揭示我国堰塞湖形成机理,基于堰塞湖实际案例,依据灾害链式演变规律,构建我国堰塞湖灾害链模型;以灾害链模型中各因素为节点,各因素间作用关系为边,构建我国堰塞湖灾害链演化网络模型,利用Gephi软件实现灾害链演化网络可视化和拓扑参数计算,最终确定堰塞湖防治关键因素。结果表明:持续降雨作用于山地地貌,导致山体滑坡,该类堰塞湖致因在我国较为普遍,通过加大特定地区雨量与地质环境监测力度,可有效提高我国自然灾害防治水平。     

信息整合在城市综合防灾减灾中的应用

城市防灾减灾信息化建设中,"信息孤岛"问题造成信息资源的浪费,严重影响了灾害管理的效率和效果。笔者提出信息整合的思路——以信息共享和满足个性化需求为整合目标,按照标准化、相关性、价值性、动态性的整合原则,打破区域、部门间的界限,从横向、纵向、防灾减灾全过程进行信息整合,形成一套较完善的信息整合体系。为进一步明确整合主体(人)及整合对象(防灾减灾信息)之间相互联系和作用的方式,还介绍信息整合的3种模式:对象关联模式、逻辑模式、综合模式。在实践中,可以根据资源、技术、需求等方面的具体情况,单独地或综合地利用该3种模式进行信息内容的整合。通过信息整合能提升防灾减灾信息利用的整体效能,有效地发挥信息资源在防灾减灾中的作用。     

一种应用于大型储罐的雷击电流监测分析方法

介绍了剩磁法原理和剩磁检测依据标准,使用雷电流发生器和高斯计对磁钢棒的剩磁状况进行了初步的试验研究。     

Of timelines and timeliness: lessons from Typhoon Haiyan in early disaster response

Typhoon Haiyan struck the Philippines on 8 November 2013 with maximum sustained winds of 235 kilometres per hour, adversely affecting at least 11 million people and displacing some 673,000 in the central regions of the country. The disaster clearly overwhelmed the Philippine government despite its seemingly well‐crafted disaster management plan. Using timelines of different organisations, this paper identifies gaps in the government's response, mainly due to its failure in coordinating and managing relief operations, which adversely affected its effectiveness and efficiency in the delivery of critical goods and services following the disaster. The paper also demonstrates how non‐governmental organisations (NGOs), the United Nations, foreign governments and other organisations provided assistance, mainly through aid niching, to cover the government's shortcomings. The paper recommends a paradigm shift in the government's disaster response by integrating collaborative arrangements between government agencies and NGOs, and giving local governments the lead role, with the national government as support, in disaster planning and response.     

Barriers to the long‐term recovery of individuals with disabilities following a disaster

This study examines how pre‐existing disabling conditions influenced the recovery process of survivors of Hurricane Katrina. It focuses specifically on the barriers that hindered the recovery process in these individuals. Focus groups were convened in four Gulf Coast states with 31 individuals with disabilities who lived in or around New Orleans, Louisiana, prior to Hurricane Katrina in August 2005. Qualitative data were analysed using grounded theory methodology. Five themes emerged as the most significant barriers to recovery: housing; transportation; employment; physical and mental health; and accessing recovery services. While these barriers to recovery were probably common to most survivors of the disaster, the research results suggest that disability status enhanced the challenges that participants experienced in negotiating the recovery process and in acquiring resources that accommodated their disabilities. The findings indicate that, when disaster recovery services and resources did not accommodate the needs of individuals with disabilities, recovery was hindered. Recovery efforts should include building accessible infrastructure and services that will allow for participation by all.     

Towards a natural disaster intervention and recovery framework

Contemporary responses to facilitate long‐term recovery from large‐scale natural disasters juxtapose between those of humanitarian agencies and governments and those of the affected community. The extent to which these mechanisms articulate is crucial to the recovery propensity of the affected communities. This research examines such action by exploring the relationship between the scale of post‐disaster response interventions, the extent of community participation in them, and their impact on community recovery, using a community wealth capital framework. The investigation was applied to a study of the longer‐term community recovery of the island of Vilufushi, Republic of Maldives, which was almost completely destroyed by the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004. Data were analysed through the employment of a pattern match technique and a holistic recovery network analysis. The research framework, informed by the case‐study results, other long‐term recovery evaluations, and existing resilience theory, is reconfigured as a testable roadmap for future post‐disaster interventions.     

The nuclear disaster management system in Taiwan: a case study of the third (Maanshan) nuclear power plant

This paper explores the effectiveness of the nuclear disaster management system in Taiwan via a review of the third (Maanshan) nuclear power plant. In doing so, the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in Japan on 11 March 2011 is reviewed and compared with the situation in Taiwan. The latter's nuclear disaster management system is examined with respect to three key variables: information; mobilisation; and inter‐organisational cooperation. In‐depth interviews with 10 policy stakeholders with different backgrounds serve as the research method. The results point up the need for improvement in all dimensions. In addition, they highlight three principal problems with the nuclear disaster management system: (i) it might not be possible to provide first‐hand nuclear disaster information immediately to the communities surrounding the Maanshan facility in Pingtung County, southern Taiwan; (ii) the availability of medical resources for treating radiation in Hengchun Township is limited; and (iii) the inter‐organisational relationships for addressing nuclear disasters need to be strengthened. Hence, cooperation among related organisations is necessary.     

基于GDEM-PDyna的尾矿库溃坝三维数值模拟分析研究*

为进一步探究尾矿坝溃决后特有泥石流运移规律,掌握坝体破坏前至溃坝结束全流程发展状态,依托广东省某案例尾矿库为研究对象,采用基于有限元与离散元耦合方法的GDEM-PDyna软件构建泥石流类流体下泄演化数值模型,开展尾矿坝溃决演化分析,动态模拟尾矿库溃决过程中泥砂运动规律及淹没范围,并与MIKE 21软件计算结果进行对比。研究结果表明:尾矿坝溃决后,泥石流类流体流速升高、持续时间较短且尾砂流量发展迅速,2种模拟方法对比结果表明溃坝后坝基位置下泄流量变化与下游敏感点溃坝淹没深度变化情况一致。研究结果可为实现尾矿库下游重点区域灾害评估提供量化支撑,可有效提高尾矿坝溃决后灾害影响评估的精准性。     

基于置信规则的村镇应急避难场所暴雨灾害链风险诊断*

为解决村镇应急避难场所面临暴雨灾害时的风险问题,基于故障树和置信规则库推理方法,提出暴雨灾害链和村镇应急避难场所功能破坏链相结合的场所避难功能失效风险诊断模型。根据事故致因理论推理灾害节点变量,通过故障树描述灾害链,运用关联规则从历史灾害数据中挖掘规则,建立置信规则库系统,构建村镇应急避难场所功能失效风险诊断模型,并以四川省某寄宿制学校为例进行模型验证。研究结果表明:该模型可实现不同证据组合下村镇应急避难场所功能失效风险的诊断推理;实例的模型诊断结果与实际情况吻合,证实该模型能够科学地诊断村镇应急避难场所面临暴雨等恶劣自然条件时存在的风险,可为村镇应急避难场所规划设计和应急管理提供理论支撑。