Welch谱估计的随机误差与置信度

目的分析Welch谱估计的随机误差及置信度。方法首先导出Welch谱估计量随机误差的表达式,然后采用正态标准化处理方法,将Welch谱估计分量转化为χ2变量。结果获得了Welch谱估计的置信度分析方法。结论以128自由度的Welch谱估计结果的随机误差(12.5%)作为相对置信区间,则其置信概率为68.4%,若要达到95.5%以上置信概率,则Welch谱估计的自由度不能小于512,相应的随机误差为6.25%。     

Risk-based inspection for large-scale crude oil tanks

Periodic Internal Inspection Method often results in under-inspection or over-inspection for large-scale crude oil tank. Therefore, how to determine reasonable internal inspection interval (INTII) has great significance on balancing the safe operation requirement and inspection cost for crude oil tanks. Here, RBI (risk-based inspection) technology is used to quantitatively assess the risk of crude oil tanks in an oil depot in China. The risk comparison between tank shell and bottom shows that the risk of tank depends on the risk of tank bottom. The prediction procedure of INTII for crude oil tanks is also presented. The INTII predicted by RBI method is gradually extended with the increasing of the acceptable risk level. The method to determine the acceptable risk of crude oil tanks is proposed, by which 3.54E+04 are taken as the acceptable risk of the oil depot. The safety factor of 0.8 is proposed to determine the final INTIIs for 18 crude oil tanks. The INTII requirement in China code SY/T 5921, 5-7 years, is very conservative and lower than predicted service life of tanks. The INTIIs predicted by Gumbel method are smaller than by RBI method for tanks with short INTII. Therefore, this paper recommends RBI method to predict the INTII for crude oil tanks.     

华东地区地震危险性的定量分析

本文利用概率统计方法对华东地区2001至2005年发生不同震级的地震概率进行了预测,结果表明,该地区仍处于地震活跃时段,发生5级地震的概率不断增加。     

基于区间数排序法的农田土壤重金属生态风险分析

将土壤中重金属浓度以区间形式表示,运用土壤重金属生态风险分析模型得出风险区间。为区分风险等级并引入区间数排序法,建立了一种基于不确定性的区间数排序法的土壤重金属污染风险评价模型。运用该模型对不同研究区域土壤重金属生态风险和同一研究区域土壤中不同重金属生态风险进行分析。结果表明,A采样区的风险最大,其区间排序向量为0.275 5,区间向量排序为ABDEC,与内梅罗综合污染指数排序结果一致。区间数排序法考虑到评价过程中的不确定性,避免主观因素的影响。因此,土壤重金属生态风险量化结果更加客观直观,为风险管理提供较为精确的理论依据。     

An Interval-Parameter Fuzzy-Stochastic Programming Approach for Municipal Solid Waste Management and Planning

In this study, an integrated fuzzy-stochastic linear programming model is developed and applied to municipal solid waste management. Methods of chance-constrained programming and fuzzy linear programming are incorporated within a general interval-parameter mixed-integer linear programming framework. It improves upon the existing optimization methods with advantages in uncertainty reflection, data availability, and computational requirement. The model can be used for answering questions related to types, times and sites of solid waste management practices, with the objective of minimizing system costs over the planning horizon. The model can effectively reflect dynamic, interactive, and uncertain characteristics of municipal waste management systems. In its solution process, the model is transformed into two deterministic submodels, corresponding to upper and lower bounds of the desired objective function values under a given significance level, based on an interactive algorithm. Results of the method's application to a hypothetical case indicate that reasonable outputs have been obtained. It demonstrates the practical applicability of the proposed methodology.     

Heavy metals and couple fecundity, the LIFE Study

The effect of heavy metals at environmentally relevant concentrations on couple fecundity has received limited study despite ubiquitous exposure. In 2005-2009, couples (n = 501) desiring pregnancy and discontinuing contraception were recruited and asked to complete interviews and to provide blood specimens for the quantification of cadmium (μg L⁻¹), lead (μg dL⁻¹) and mercury (μg L⁻¹) using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. Couples completed daily journals on lifestyle and intercourse along with menstruation and pregnancy testing for women. Couples were followed for 12 months or until pregnant. Fecundability odds ratios (FORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated adjusting for age, body mass index, cotinine, and serum lipids in relation to female then male exposures. FORs <1 denote a longer time to pregnancy. In adjusted models, reduced FORs were observed for both female cadmium (0.78; 95% CI 0.63-0.97) and male lead (0.85; 95% CI 0.73-0.98) concentrations. When jointly modeling couples’ exposures, only male lead concentration significantly reduced the FOR (0.82; 95% CI 0.68, 0.97), though the FOR remained <1 for female cadmium (0.80; 95% CI 0.64, 1.00). This prospective couple based cohort with longitudinal capture of time to pregnancy is suggestive of cadmium and lead’s reproductive toxicity at environmentally relevant concentrations.     

影响旁路净化含油循环水达标时间的主要因素

基于循环冷却水旁路净化含油水的模拟装置,研究了旁路流速、各次料水比、旁路吸附塔填料换料时间间隔、吸附塔填料填装形式、系统温度对系统含油水浓度达标时间的影响.结果表明:净化达标时间随旁路流速的增加呈先减少后增加趋势,旁路流速为1.68 ×10-3 m/s时,净化达标时间最短;选择适当的各次料水比1/2 400,保证较短的净化达标时间和较低的经济成本;换料时间间隔为△tn+1=1.2nh时,较其他方式更有效合理;吸油填料的填装形式为混合式,系统运行温度为35℃时,净化达标时间最短.     

考虑指标协调性的湖泊富营养化评价模型

湖泊富营养化程度评价标准中同一评价指标的分级界点值差异很大,近似地呈现指数变化.基于该认识,提出了1个基于指标协调性的湖泊富营养化综合评价模型.对评价标准及待评湖泊监测值进行对数变换,改善了评价指标值的协调性,降低了评价系统的非线性化程度;在定义待评湖泊各监测指标与富营养化标准各级别之间距离测度的基础上,按评价指标协调性要求构造评价函数;鉴于评价标准为区问教的实际情况,采用区间数计算待评湖泊与各级标准的相对距离测度,并按距离测度值的大小进行湖泊富营养化状态分类.该模型建模思路清晰,物理意义明确,计算过程简捷,一组由5个湖泊组成的富营养化综合评价案例计算结果表明,评价结果符合实际.     

一种连接器振动故障分析

目的 分析得出轴向弹性触碰式连接器内导体失效的主要原因。方法 以某机载电子模块的连接器在功能振动试验后出现的故障为研究对象,对其进行目测检查、随机振动仿真分析和受力分析,定位故障原因,随后结合应力应变关系公式、高斯区间法和Miner累积损伤定律,推导内导体的疲劳寿命计算公式。结果计算得到内导体自身的振动响应应力仅为0.26 MPa,不足以产生疲劳破坏,但在振动激励下,连接器随模块的振动位移较大,超出了连接器的间隙容差范围,致使受压的内导体端面出现较大的往复动摩擦力,而摩擦力引起内导体根部的应力（250.13 MPa）超过了材料的疲劳极限,内导体有疲劳断裂的风险。进一步计算出内导体的振动疲劳寿命为0.67 h,小于功能振动试验时间,证实是振动位移引起的摩擦导致了内导体的疲劳断裂。结论 轴向弹性触碰式连接器必须要重视摩擦力的危害,提高模块的安装刚度,可以有效地提高连接器的可靠性。     

基于改进云模型-IAHP的涉爆粉尘企业安全风险评估

为了评估涉爆粉尘企业安全风险,克服传统评估过程中数据随机性和模糊性的缺陷,建立了基于云理论和区间层次分析法(IAHP)的涉爆粉尘企业安全风险评估模型。针对粉尘爆炸事故的特点构建涉爆粉尘企业安全风险指标体系,使用云理论为主客观指标赋值,采用IAHP确定各指标权重并引入可能度修正权重结果,基于改进的云合并算法整合计算结果,以综合评估企业粉尘爆炸风险,并将该模型应用于某金属加工企业。研究结果表明:该企业的粉尘爆炸风险处于一般水平,其工人安全意识薄弱、防尘及防爆措施不完善、生产布局和管理不规范等原因导致了该企业的风险,该模型评估结果与实际情况相符,为提高企业安全管理水平提供依据。