An Inexact Fuzzy-robust Two-stage Programming Model for Managing Sulfur Dioxide Abatement Under Uncertainty

In this study, an inexact fuzzy-robust two-stage programming (IFRTSP) method is developed for tackling multiple forms of uncertainties that can be expressed as discrete intervals, probabilistic distributions and/or fuzzy membership functions. The model can reflect economic penalties of corrective measures against any infeasibilities arising due to a particular realization of system uncertainties. Moreover, the fuzzy decision space can be delimited into a more robust one with the uncertainties being specified through dimensional enlargement of the original fuzzy constraints. A management problem in terms of regional air pollution control has been studied to illustrate the applicability of the proposed approach. Results indicate that useful solutions for planning the air quality management practices have been generated. They can help decision makers identify desired pollution-abatement strategy with minimized system cost and maximized environmental efficiency.     

绿灯间隔时间对交叉口交通安全的影响研究

在对世界其他国家黄灯的界定进行回顾的基础上,将国内道路交通安全法对黄灯的界定与其进行了对比,指出我国道路交通安全法中对黄灯的作用与定义的界定存在一定偏差;并运用汽车动力学原理及交通冲突理论,对驾驶员在绿灯间隔期间的驾驶行为以及车辆的行驶轨迹进行分析;确定了影响黄灯时长及全红时间计算的相关因素,提出了黄灯时长以及全红时间的计算公式。研究结果指出:科学合理的绿灯间隔设置是交叉口交通安全的保证;禁止车辆黄灯期间越过停车线以及取消黄灯都是不利于交通安全的做法。     

煤层瓦斯流动数值解算时空步长的选取

对应用有限差分法解算煤层瓦斯流动时,如何选取合适的时间步长和空间步长、如何根据煤层瓦斯压力分布计算煤壁瓦斯涌出量等问题进行了分析和探讨。用煤壁处节点与煤层内相邻节点间的瓦斯压力梯度来求煤壁瓦斯涌出量的方法误差较大。根据煤层内各节点的瓦斯压力值对瓦斯压力进行拟合,用拟合曲线在煤壁处的斜率作为煤壁瓦斯压力梯度计算瓦斯涌出量,能得到可靠精确的结果。通过考察选取不同时间步长和空间步长时煤壁瓦斯压力梯度的变化,提出了选取合适的时间步长和空间步长的方法。     

大气扩散参数的取样时间订正

就大气环境影响评价浓度预测中 ,对大气扩散参数取样时间订正问题进行了说明和讨论。     

Evaluation of risk and cost using an age-dependent unavailability modelling of test and maintenance for standby components

The improvement of safety in the process industries is related to assessment and reduction of risk in a cost-effective manner. This paper addresses the trade-off between risk and cost related to standby safety systems. An age-dependent unavailability model that integrates the effects of the test and maintenance (T&M) activities as well as component ageing is developed and represents the basis for calculating risk. The repair “same-as-new” process is considered regarding the T&M activities. Costs are expressed as a function of the selected risk measure. The time-averaged function of the selected risk measure is obtained from probabilistic safety assessment, i.e. the fault tree analysis. This function is further extended with inclusion of additional parameters related to T&M activities as well as ageing parameters related to component ageing. In that sense, a new model of system unavailability, incorporating component ageing and T&M costs, is presented. The testing strategy is also addressed. Sequential and staggered testings are compared. The developed approach is applied on a standard safety system in nuclear power plant although the method is applicable to standby safety systems that are tested and maintained in other industries as well. The results show that the risk-informed surveillance requirements differ from existing ones in technical specifications, which are deterministically based. Moreover, the presented approach achieves a significant reduction in system unavailability over a relatively small increase of total T&M costs.     

黄磷储罐火灾临界安全距离理论分析与数值模拟

基于建筑防火隔离带的设计理念,研究了黄磷储罐临界安全距离的计算方法,将黄磷储罐火灾简化为罐内池火模型,通过理论计算和数值模拟黄磷储罐火灾周边热辐射分布,根据目标可燃物接受到的临界辐射通量是否大于或等于10 kW/m2来确定临界安全距离。研究表明：临界安全距离可通过火焰对目标可燃物接受到的临界辐射通量求得,且理论计算和数值模拟计算获得的临界安全距离基本一致。对于黄磷储罐火灾的防治具有一定的参考价值。     

安全仪表系统的性能维护及指标值计算

安全仪表系统（SIS）作为保障工业生产安全的重要措施,需要在危险发生时正确地执行其安全功能,采取有效措施维持安全仪表系统在运行阶段的性能是保障系统功能安全的关键。详细阐明了SIS在运行阶段应遵循风险评估分析、安全功能分配文件、安全要求规范、安全分析报告、安全完整性等级符合性等重要文档中的要求,给出了维持SIS安全完整性的主要活动,并在加强旁路、禁止和超驰控制管理,对SIS失效的响应、记录和分析,进行定期检查、维护和功能测试以及安全仪表系统的变更管理等方面提出了要求。提出了SIS的安全性能指标及目标值的简易计算方法,给出失效率更新流程、计算方法和功能安全测试间隔调整技术。所提的技术方法为如何保证安全仪表系统运行阶段的安全性能提供了有力指导,其可操作性强,便于在实际工程中进行应用。     

瓦斯浓度区间预测的灰色聚类与高斯过程模型

为有效分析矿井瓦斯监测数据,以实现准确、可靠的瓦斯浓度预测,基于灰色关联聚类分析与高斯过程回归模型,研究瓦斯浓度时间序列分析与预测的方法。以预测有效度为预测精度的评估指标来动态确定重构瓦斯浓度时间序列样本空间的维数;应用灰色关联分析方法将瓦斯浓度时间序列划分成若干样本集,将其中具有关联特征的样本作为虚拟变量进行预测以消除因随机、不确定因素干扰而引起的预测误差;应用高斯过程回归模型实现瓦斯浓度区间预测,将预测结果表示成一个具有较高可信度的取值区间,以此表达对未来一段时间内瓦斯浓度动态变化情况的预测。实例分析表明:预测结果准确、可靠,能够较好地反映瓦斯浓度的实际变化状况。     

基于区间层次分析法的石油库防火防爆安全评价

为准确反应石油库防火防爆安全状态,给石油库安全管理工作提供科学依据,应用区间层次分析法(IAHP)对石油库进行防火防爆安全评价。通过分析石油库防火防爆安全影响因素,构建3级安全评价层次结构体系。针对专家构造判断矩阵时决策的不确定性,采用区间数来描述因素之间的两两比较,应用区间特征根法(IEM)求出12项评判指标的区间权重向量及权重总排序。研究表明:影响石油库防火防爆安全状态最大的4个因素依次为:消防灭火设备状态、技术设备状态、防静电设备状态和工艺设备状态。评价结果与石油库的实际安全状况相符。     

Multiple paternity and individual variation in sperm precedence in the simultaneously hermaphroditic land snail Arianta arbustorum

Intraspecific variation in the proportion of offspring sired by the second mate with a female (P₂) is an aspect of sperm competition that has received little attention. I examined the effects of delay between copulations (range 9–380 days) and size of sperm donor on sperm precedence in double-mated individuals of the simultaneously hermaphroditic land snail Arianta arbustorum. Using shell colour as a genetic marker, paternity was analysed in 132 broods produced by 35 snails that had mated with two partners of different genotype. Sperm precedence (P₂) was influenced by the time between the two matings when the mating delay exceeded 70 days (one reproductive season). P2 averaged 0.34 in the first brood of snails that mated twice within 70 days indicating first mate sperm precedence. In contrast, P₂ averaged 0.76 in broods of snails that remated in the following season, indicating a decreased viability of sperm from the first mate. The size of sperm-donating individuals had no effect on the fertilization success of their sperm in the first brood produced after the second copulation. Analysis of long-term sperm utilization in 23 snails that laid three to nine egg batches over 2 years revealed striking differences among individuals. Five snails (21.7%) exhibited first-mate sperm precedence throughout, eight snails (34.8%) showed second-mate sperm precedence throughout, whereas ten snails (43.5%) exhibited sperm mixing in successive batches. It is suggested that the individual variation in sperm precedence in A. arbustorum may partly be due to differences in the amount of sperm transferred. Paternity analysis in 34 batches laid by 19 wild-caught individuals of A. arbustorum indicated that at least 12 snails (63.2%) used sperm from two or more mates for the fertilization of their eggs. This suggests a high incidence of multiple paternity in broods of A. arbustorum under field conditions.