Maternal investment in mountain baboons and the hypothesis of reduced care

It has been argued that female mammals should terminate expensive forms of infant care earlier as habitat quality declines. More recently it has been shown that among a variety of mammalian species, early termination of care is also associated with highly favourable conditions. In this paper we present data on maternal investment decisions among baboons (Papio cynocephalus ursinus) inhabiting the Drakensberg Mountains of South Africa, and compare these with data from East African baboon studies. Mothers in the mountain habitat face a set of environmental conditions where the problem of resource allocation to offspring is expected to be particularly acute. We begin by using the model of Altmann (1980) of maternal time budgets to demonstrate that mountain baboon mothers experience greater perturbations to their activity budgets while suckling than do mothers in other populations. They also provide consistently greater levels of care to their infants and do so in the absence of any form of overt conflict over access to the nipple. Although this investment results in a relative lengthening of the interbirth interval (IBI), it is accompanied by relatively higher infant survival. We argue that factors that influence the maternal strategy adopted by mountain baboons include slow infant growth rates and a lack of predation in the habitat which influences probability of offspring survival beyond the immediate postnatal period. We suggest that both “care-dependent” sources of mortality (e.g. female reproductive condition, the amount of milk transferred to offspring) as well as “care independent” sources of mortality (e.g. predation, infectious disease) should be considered in studies of parental investment. Received: 26 May 1997 / Accepted after revision: 9 August 1997     

Bioefficacy,dissipation kinetics and safety evaluation of selected insecticides in Allium cepa L

This paper reports the bioefficacy of selected insecticides against thrips and their pre-harvest intervals (PHI) in onion pertaining to their recommended application rates and maximum residue limits. Profenophos, methomyl and imidacloprid showed comparatively higher bioefficacy against thrips. GC-MS and LC-MS/MS-based residue analysis methods in onion bulbs and composite matrix of bulbs+leaves were thoroughly validated. The residue data for bulb+leaves was assessed with reference to the EU-MRLs applicable for spring onion. Dimethoate was the most stable chemical with PHI of 52.5 days, followed by monocrotophos (24 days) and carbofuran (20.5 days). The PHIs of profenophos, chlorpyrifos, methomyl and cypermethrin were similar and within the range of 10–13 days. Imidacloprid and λ-cyhalothrin had similar PHI of 4.5 days. Spinosad was the fastest-degrading chemical with PHI of 2 days. The combined bioefficacy and residue dynamics information will support label-claim of these insecticides for the management of thrips in onion, help in scheduling their applications in pest management program as per relative PHIs and minimize the residue accumulations at harvest. The dietary exposure was less than the maximum permissible intake for most of the insecticides on all sampling days except for dimethoate and monocrotophos.     

基于纳污能力控制的省区初始排污权ITSP配置模型

省区初始排污权配置具有多阶段性、复杂性及不确定性特征。面向水功能区限制纳污红线约束,根据省区初始排污权配置的基本假设,引入区间数和随机数来描述不确定性信息,以因省区初始排污权配置产生的经济效益为第1个阶段,以因承担减排责任而可能产生的治污损失为第2个阶段,设计实现流域经济效益最优的目标函数,并以配置结果能够体现社会效益、生态环境效益和社会经济发展连续性为约束条件,构建基于纳污能力控制的省区初始排污权区间两阶段随机规划(ITSP)配置模型,分水污染物类别确定不同减排情形下的省区初始排污权配置方案。在三种减排情形下,2020年太湖流域各省区的初始排污权配置结果表明:1江苏省、浙江省和上海市的COD初始排污权配置区间量没有明显变化,其NH3-N和TP初始排污权配置区间量总体呈上升或递增趋势;2太湖流域各省区因初始排污权的配置产生的总体经济效益最优区间数分别为[335.35,399.75]亿元、[336.63,401.11]亿元和[339.08,402.74]亿元,最优区间数的下限值、上限值及期望值总体呈上升或递增趋势。分类确定不同减排情形下的配置方案,并提出方案实施的政策建议,为排污权配置决策提供更为准确的决策空间。     

空气污染健康损失中统计生命价值评估研究

采用权变评价法(CVM)评估了我国空气污染健康损失中的统计生命价值,并分析了其影响因素.结果表明,我国空气污染健康损失中的统计生命价值约为100万元/a.区间值线性回归模型分析显示,年龄、受教育程度、人均年收入、健康和家庭规模等因素对统计生命价值均有显著影响,但是城市的不同对统计生命价值并没有显著影响.     

基于区间数的河流水环境健康风险模糊综合评价模型

利用区间数表示水环境中污染物浓度的不确定性,构建了基于区间数的河流水环境健康风险评价模型.同时,采用专家咨询法建立模糊化的风险评价标准体系,将风险评价标准分为低、低.中、中、中.高、高和极高6个风险等级,并运用一级综合评判法得出健康风险评价的等级.最后,选取cd、As、Hg、Pb、CN、NH3和挥发酚为评价因子,将基于区间数和模糊理论的河流水环境健康风险模糊综合评价模型应用于2005～2007年湘江长株潭段的水环境健康风险评价中.评价结果表明,2005～2007年湘江长株潭段的水环境健康风险水平较高;株洲和湘潭段的个人年风险值较大.其中,五星断面的个人年风险最高,儿童的个人年风险明显高于成人的个人年风险;2006年朱亭镇、霞湾、三汊矶和樟树港4个断面上个人年风险略有增高,2007年各断面的健康风险水平有所降低.     

基于区间数多目标规划的河北省水资源与产业结构优化

河北省日益尖锐的水资源供需矛盾已经成为影响社会经济持续发展和生态建设的主要制约因素。论文在河北省宏观经济水资源和水环境投入产出表基础上,建立了产业结构的区间数多目标优化模型,确立了3个目标函数以及相应的约束条件,并对产业结构的优化调整进行了模型计算,结合相关政策分析设计了产业结构调整方案,即适当扩大农林牧渔业、食品加工业、木材加工业、非金属制品业、服务业、建筑业以及商业饮食业所占比重;对于开采洗选业、金属加工业、纺织服装业、造纸印刷业以及能源供应业等行业可适当减少产值规模,其他行业基本不变。执行调整方案后,预计产业增加值最高可达55 181.708亿元,最低为51 191.163亿元,平均值为53 186.436亿元;用水总量可控制在151.67×10⁸~176.02×10⁸ t范围内,COD排放量则可控制在117.31×10⁴~136.80×10⁴ t之间。调整后的产业机构更能适应河北省可持续发展的需要。     

时段长取值变化下的径流年内分配特征研究

利用东江流域控制站博罗站1954—2009年日平均流量资料,选取集中度、集中期、不均匀系数和极值比4项指标,研究了河川径流年内分配特征,在不同时段长取值下的变化规律及年际变化特征。结果表明：东江径流年内分配的集中程度及时间,基本上不会受到时段长取值大小变化的影响。集中度多年均值为0.35,集中期多年均值出现在7月上旬。径流年内分配不均匀性和变化幅度,随时段长取值缩短而增大,并与时段长的对数线性负相关。不均匀系数多年均值由基于月平均流量分配的0.62上升到基于1 d平均流量分配的0.89,极值比多年均值由基于月平均流量分配的8.63上升到基于1 d平均流量分配的39.55。径流年内分配特征在不同时段长取值下的逐年变化规律基本相似,但由于流域水资源开发等人类活动的显著影响,1973年之后的集中度、不均匀系数和极值比均明显减小,且径流年内分配的集中程度和不均匀性均要小于珠江流域的另外两大水系西江和北江。     

飞机流宏观与微观同高度纵向间隔研究

航空安全一直以来备受社会各界关注,其中安全间隔对于航路运行有非常重要的意义。为了合理分配航路间隔,减少航路拥堵,基于实际运行情况,将连续的飞机流作为研究目标,从宏观和微观角度建立了纵向间隔的计算模型,根据飞机流的跟驰效应,得出航路运行间隔的动态变化范围。在此基础上,提出了快速地对航空器进行间隔调整的方案。最后,以西安管制区的运行数据为例进行仿真,验证了模型的合理性,并分析了各因素对飞行流间隔的影响,调整方案可以较快地完成航路间隔的重新分配,为运行提供更准确的引导。     

改进的RBI技术在海上平台压力容器中的应用

海上平台压力容器检验周期的计算方法通常会产生过少或过度检验的问题,确定合理的检验周期对平衡压力容器的安全操作和检验成本具有重大意义。采用改进的RBI技术,对2种泄漏类型的压力容器系统分别设定不同的可接受风险,并将渐变模型引入压力容器检验周期计算方法中,计算了某海上生产平台上的51台压力容器的检验周期。结果表明,共有22个压力容器部位的检验周期得到调整,验证了改进的方法可以使检验周期数值更真实合理地反映设备风险,但对腐蚀率较小的损伤机理,采用渐变模型改进容器部位的检验周期效果不明显。     

Stationarity of Streamflow Records and Their Influence on Bankfull Regional Curves1

Haucke, Jessica and Katherine A. Clancy, 2011. Stationarity of Streamflow Records and Their Influence on Bankfull Regional Curves. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1338–1347. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00590.x Abstract: Bankfull regional curves, which are curves that establish relationships among channel morphology, discharge, drainage area, are used extensively for stream restoration. These curves are developed upon the assumption that streamflows maintain stationarity over the entire record. We examined this assumption in the Driftless Area of southwestern Wisconsin where agricultural soil retention practices have changed, and precipitation has increased since the 1970s. We developed a bankfull regional curve for this area using field surveys of bankfull channel performed during 2008‐2009 and annual series of peak streamflows for 10 rivers with streamflow records ranging from the 1930s to 2009. We found bankfull flows to correlate to a 1.1 return period. To evaluate gage data statistics, we used the sign test to compare our channel morphology to historic 1.5 return period discharge (Q_1.5) for five time periods: 1959‐1972, 1973‐1992, 1993‐2008, 1999‐2008, and the 1959‐2008 period of record. Analysis of the historic gage data indicated that there has been a more than 30% decline in Q_1.5 since 1959. Our research suggests that land conservation practices may have a larger impact on gaging station stationarity than annual precipitation changes do. Additionally, historic peak flow data from gages, which have records that span land conservation changes, may need to be truncated to represent current flow regimes.