河口岛屿农村地区原位与分散生活污水处理模式的环境与经济对比分析

农村污水排放所导致的环境问题日益突出,各地均大力推动污水处理模式的建立与优化.但农村污水处理模式综合效能评价体系匮乏,且多以处理工艺为主,少量考虑了管网收集系统的环境经济影响.另外,河口岛屿因其独特的自然区位,生态更加脆弱敏感,研究其污水处理问题更具有价值与意义.因此,本研究选取河口岛屿为研究对象,以崇明为例,运用生命周期评价和经济性分析理论,对比分析了分散与原位两种生活污水处理模式,包含收集和处理系统两个子系统,以及建设和运行两个阶段的环境影响与经济性.结果表明：原位和分散模式环境影响总值分别为1.75×10^-11和0.66,分散模式更具环境优势;户均成本分别为1.80万元和1.66万元,相比原位模式而言,在相同去除效果条件下,分散模式处理更有利于节约单位投资费用;处理系统为污水处理模式主要环境影响贡献子系统,其运行阶段为主要贡献阶段,且收集系统更有环境无害化和经济优势;海洋生态毒性潜值和人体毒性潜值为主要环境影响类型.     

我国东部沿海三大城市群热岛变化及其与城市群发展的关系

随着城市化进程的快速推进,城市群已经成为区域空间的重要组织形式.为揭示我国东部沿海京津唐、长三角和珠三角三大城市群热岛变化与城市群发展的关系,利用MODIS地表温度产品数据和DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据,对2001-2013年这3个城市群的热岛效应与区域发展二者之间的关系进行研究.结果表明:2001-2013年,3个城市群的热岛斑块面积均有较大幅度的增加,并且在空间上逐渐相连接,形成热岛城市带;RHⅡ（区域热岛指数）不断升高,京津唐城市群、长三角城市群、珠三角城市群分别升高0.051、0.070、0.101,其热岛状况不断加剧.随着城市群的发展,城区对周边区域的辐射作用不断加强,建成区边缘的城郊过渡带是地表温度增加最为显著的区域.总体而言,城市群的扩展是其区域热岛效应的主要成因,表征城市扩展变化的夜间灯光亮度平均值差值与表征热岛变化的地表温度平均值差值之间存在对数关系,表现出先快后慢的趋势.      

Using Population Viability Criteria to Assess Strategies to Minimize Disease Threats for an Endangered Carnivore

Outbreaks of infectious disease represent serious threats to the viability of many vertebrate populations, but few studies have included quantitative evaluations of alternative approaches to the management of disease. The most prevalent management approach is monitoring for and rapid response to an epizootic. An alternative is vaccination of a subset of the free‐living population (i.e., a “vaccinated core”) such that some individuals are partially or fully immune in the event of an epizootic. We developed a simulation model describing epizootic dynamics, which we then embedded in a demographic simulation to assess these alternative approaches to managing rabies epizootics in the island fox (Urocyon littoralis), a species composed of only 6 small populations on the California Channel Islands. Although the monitor and respond approach was superior to the vaccinated‐core approach for some transmission models and parameter values, this type of reactive management did not protect the population from rabies under many disease‐transmission assumptions. In contrast, a logistically feasible program of prophylactic vaccination for part of the wild population yielded low extinction probabilities across all likely disease‐transmission scenarios, even with recurrent disease introductions. Our use of a single metric of successful management—probability of extreme endangerment (i.e., quasi extinction)—to compare very different management approaches allowed an objective assessment of alternative strategies for controlling the threats posed by infectious disease outbreaks. Utilización de Criterios de Viabilidad Poblacional para Evaluar Estrategias para Minimizar Amenazas de Enfermedades para un Carnívoro en Peligro     

The Silent Mass Extinction of Insect Herbivores in Biodiversity Hotspots

Abstract: Habitat loss is silently leading numerous insects to extinction. Conservation efforts, however, have not been designed specifically to protect these organisms, despite their ecological and evolutionary significance. On the basis of species–host area equations, parameterized with data from the literature and interviews with botanical experts, I estimated the number of specialized plant‐feeding insects (i.e., monophages) that live in 34 biodiversity hotspots and the number committed to extinction because of habitat loss. I estimated that 795,971–1,602,423 monophagous insect species live in biodiversity hotspots on 150,371 endemic plant species, which is 5.3–10.6 monophages per plant species. I calculated that 213,830–547,500 monophagous species are committed to extinction in biodiversity hotspots because of reduction of the geographic range size of their endemic hosts. I provided rankings of biodiversity hotspots on the basis of estimated richness of monophagous insects and on estimated number of extinctions of monophagous species. Extinction rates were predicted to be higher in biodiversity hotspots located along strong environmental gradients and on archipelagos, where high spatial turnover of monophagous species along the geographic distribution of their endemic plants is likely. The results strongly support the overall strategy of selecting priority conservation areas worldwide primarily on the basis of richness of endemic plants. To face the global decline of insect herbivores, one must expand the coverage of the network of protected areas and improve the richness of native plants on private lands.     

济南城市热岛动态变化遥感定量监测及其驱动因素分析研究

城市热岛是城市发展过程中遇到的难题,对人居环境造成较大影响.定量分析研究城市时空演变特征,探究热岛驱动因素,有助于为城市热岛动态变化分析提供技术支撑.论文以济南市为研究对象,采用2000年-2009年间7-8月份MODIS LST数据,分析10年间热岛变化特征.结果表明,10年间,济南城区温度明显高于郊区,热岛效应显著,并且,热核区、特高温区等区域呈现周期性扩张与收缩规律;通过提取2000年及2009年济南市人工表面与植被面积,发现2009年比2000年人工表面面积扩张33.33％,植被减少6.76％,且人工表面扩张与植被减少的区域大部分重合,这对城市热岛形成产生了一定促进作用.另一方面,通过统计分析2000年与2009年人口数量、机动车保有量、烟尘排放量数据,分析济南城市热岛驱动因素,结合城市规划建设,为缓解济南城市热岛提出参考性建议.     

长江三角洲城市群人为热排放特征研究

基于常规可获取的能源、交通、人口等统计资料,利用“自上而下”的能源清单法,研究了2010年长江三角洲(以下简称“长三角”)城市群地区各类人为热排放量及其时空分布特征.结果表明:该地区人为热排放总量为1.4′1019J/a,其中工业、交通、建筑、新陈代谢分别占75.1%、12.5%、9.9%和2.5%.上海、苏州、无锡、杭州和南京五个城市的人为热排放总量约占研究区域总量的71%.长三角城市群的人为热年平均排放通量为5.3W/m2,大部分地区介于5~30W/m2,城市高值区一般介于20~70W/m2,上海明显高于其他城市.为方便有关环境气候模式的输入,本文提供了人为热排放的网格化空间分布和简单的时间变化廓线.     

The social and spatial distribution of temperature-related health impacts from urban heat island reduction policies

Cities are developing innovative strategies to combat climate change but there remains little knowledge of the winners and losers from climate-adaptive land use planning and design. We examine the distribution of health benefits associated with land use policies designed to increase vegetation and surface reflectivity in three US metropolitan areas: Atlanta, GA, Philadelphia, PA, and Phoenix, AZ. Projections of population and land cover at the census tract scale were combined with climate models for the year 2050 at 4 km × 4 km resolution to produce future summer temperatures which were input into a comparative risk assessment framework for the temperature-mortality relationship. The findings suggest disparities in the effectiveness of urban heat management strategies by age, income, and race. We conclude that, to be most protective of human health, urban heat management must prioritize areas of greatest population vulnerability.     

浙江省海岛旅游资源开发与可持续利用

浙江省拥有3061个岛屿,约占中国海岛总数的2/5,海岛旅游产品正由观光型向观光度假型提升.分析了浙江省海岛旅游资源的区域比较优势和开发的制约因素,探讨了海岛旅游资源开发与可持续利用的途径.     

烧麦秆与大气污染

本文就近３年来成都市周围烧麦杆，油菜秆所引起的大气环境污染的原因，危害加以分析，并提出对策及建议，由于成都市经济的高速发展，周围农村中不再用麦秆和油菜秆作为燃料而全部焚烧作肥料还田，同时由于３月多发生不利于大气污染物扩散的逆温现象及城市热岛效应，造成我市环境空气的严重污染，建议从立法、宣传及爱护资源等方面来改善人们的刑法陋习和加强对成都市大气环境的保护。     

济南市局地环流数值预报试验研究

利用多尺度气象耦合模式对济南市城市热岛和山谷风局地环流进行了数值预报试验,其预报和实测日均风速比值总体平均为1.18±0.39,风向差值总体平均为45±30°,温度差值总体平均为0.32±0.25(°C)。