A General Model for Analyzing Data from Mark-recapture Experiments with an Application to the Pacific Halibut

A general model is developed to examine the patterns of the regional movement of tagged and released fish from mark-recapture experiments. It is a stochastic model that incorporates fishing mortality, natural mortality, fish movement, tag-shedding, and different rates of reporting. A likelihood function is constructed for estimating its parameters. We used this model to analyze data on the Pacific halibut from mark-recapture experiments conducted by the International Pacific Halibut Commission (IPHC), with a total of 36,058 releases from 1982 to 1986 and 5,826 recoveries from 1982 to 2000. We estimated their rates of movement among IPHC management areas, along with their instantaneous rates of natural and fishing mortalities. Our analysis revealed that fish movement was not significant among areas, with a resident probability of > 0.92. This lends support to the IPHC catch-at-age stock assessment model (which has no built-in movement components). The estimated instantaneous rate of natural mortality (0.198 year⁻¹) lies between that assumed in all IPHC stock assessments before 1998 (0.20 year⁻¹) and that from 1999 onwards (0.15 year⁻¹). The estimates of the instantaneous rates of fishing mortality were consistent with those from the IPHC stock assessment model. Received: April 2003 / Revised: May 2005     

Indigenous Uses, Population Density, and Conservation of Threatened Medicinal Plants in Protected Areas of the Indian Himalayas

Abstract:  For 10 years I monitored the population density of threatened medicinal plant species in seven protected areas in the Indian Himalayas. I also documented the indigenous uses of threatened medicinal plants through interviews with 138 herbal healers (83 Tibetan healers and 55 Ayurvedic healers) residing in the buffer zone villages of these protected areas. To assess the population status of threatened medicinal plant species, I sampled the 10 major habitat types in the protected areas. In all, I found 60 threatened medicinal plant species during the study period, of which 54 species occurred in the sampling plots. Twenty-two percent of threatened medicinal plant species were critically endangered, 16% were endangered, and 27% were vulnerable. Thirty-two threatened medicinal plant species were endemic to the Himalayan region. The density of threatened medicinal plant species varied with protected areas. The Valley of Flowers protected area had the highest number of threatened medicinal plant species. The "moist" habitat type was richest in these species among all 10 habitat types sampled. Arnebia euchroma (Royle ex Benth.) Johnston and Ephedra gerardiana Wall. ex Stapf. were the most common threatened medicinal plant species. The indigenous groups of healers used these threatened species in curing about 45 different ailments. Based on my findings, I believe that to ensure the long-term sustainability of threatened medicinal plants, medicinal-plant conservation areas should be established.     

Window Sensitivity Functions for Line Transect Sampling

L and width 2w, then by a selection of viewing window is meant a choice of w, with the intent being to search for optimal viewing windows, with the goal in mind of improving variances of estimators of population density, reducing sampling effort, while maintaining the property of unbiasedness. The notions of increasing window sensitivity (IWS) and decreasing window sensitivity (DWS) are introduced, and a method of deriving confidence intervals is discussed.     

ESTIMATING THE Q100 IN BRITISH COLUMBIA: A PRACTICAL PROBLEM IN FOREST HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT. Estimates of peak flows, with specified return periods, are needed in practice for the design of works that affect streams in forested areas. In the province of British Columbia (B.C.), Canada, the new Forest Practices Code specifies the 100-year instantaneous peak flow (Q100) for the design of bridges and culverts for stream crossings under forest roads; and many practitioners are engaged in making such estimates. The state of the art is still quite primitive, very similar to the state of urban hydrology 30 years ago, when popular estimating techniques were used with little consideration given to their applicability. Urban hydrology then evolved on a much more scientific basis, such that within about a 10-year period, standard approaches to design were developed. Forest hydrology should follow the same pattern, at least as far as estimating design flows is concerned. Popular present day design procedures include the rational method and other empirical approaches based on rainfall data, as use of the standard flood frequency approach is limited by the paucity of relevant flow data. Estimating procedures based on peak streamflow measurements and statistics are likely to evolve, and these will include distinctions for rain, snowmelt, and rain on snow floods. Guidelines will also be developed for selecting and applying appropriate procedures for particular areas.     

电絮凝-过滤法去除源水中微量有机物

利用电絮凝-过滤法进行了源水中有机物去除的实验研究,探讨了电流密度、电解时间和pH值等因素对源水中TOC去除效果的影响。结果表明,在电极间距1.0cm,电流密度47.2 A/m2,初始TOC浓度为12.4mg/L时,反应12min后,出水浓度为3.60mg/L,TOC去除率可达71%。表明电絮凝法可有效去除源水中微量有机物。其去除机理包括电絮凝、电化学氧化和还原以及电气浮等。     

Mark-recapture estimators for dual frame population size of prominent nesting structures: the effect of uncertain detection probability

The combined mark-recapture and line transect sampling methodology proposed by Alpizar-Jara and Pollock [Journal of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 3(4), 311–327, 1996; In Marine Mammal Survey and Assessment Methods Symposium. G.W. Garner, S.C. Amstrup, J.L. Laake, B.F.J. Manly, L.L. McDonald, and D.C. Robertson (Eds.), A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam, Netherlands, pp. 99–114, 1999] is used to illustrate the estimation of population size for populations with prominent nesting structures (i.e., bald eagle nests). In the context of a bald eagle population, the number of nests in a list frame corresponds to a pre-marked sample of nests, and an area frame corresponds to a set of transect strips that could be regularly monitored. Unlike previous methods based on dual frame methodology using the screening estimator [Haines and Pollock (Journal of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 5, 245–256, 1998a; Survey Methodology, 24(1), 79–88, 1998b)], we no longer need to assume that the area frame is complete (i.e., all the nests in the sampled sites do not need to be seen). One may use line transect sampling to estimate the probability of detection in a sampled area. Combining information from list and area frames provides more efficient estimators than those obtained by using data from only one frame. We derive an estimator for detection probability and generalize the screening estimator. A simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of the Chapman modification of the Lincoln–Petersen estimator to the screening estimator. Simulation results show that although the Chapman estimator is generally less precise than the screening estimator, the latter can be severely biased in presence of uncertain detection. The screening estimator outperforms the Chapman estimator in terms of mean squared error when detection probability is near 1 wheareas the Chapman estimator outperforms the screening estimator when detection probability is lower than a certain threshold value depending on particular scenarios.     

OTC－1型开顶式气室的结构和性能

本文详细论述了开放式气室的结构与性能，二氧化碳浓度数据采集系统、物理性能等。并重点介绍了作者自行研制的ＯＴＣ－Ｉ型开顶式气室。     

天津市区夏季碳气溶胶特征及改进的二次有机碳估算方法

为更加准确地估算环境受体PM_2.5中SOC（二次有机碳）的质量浓度,于2015年6-8月利用在线监测仪器同步采集小时分辨率的PM_2.5及OC（有机碳）和EC（元素碳）样品数据,分析碳气溶胶的变化特征,并尝试运用改进的EC示踪法估算ρ（SOC）.结果表明:天津市区夏季ρ（PM_2.5）为（70.9±46.0）μg/m3,ρ（OC）和ρ（EC）分别为（7.6±3.1）（2.2±1.5）μg/m3,占ρ（PM_2.5）的11.8%±4.6%和3.1%±1.4%,OC/EC（质量浓度之比,下同）的平均值为4.0±2.0.ρ（OC）与ρ（EC）之间的Pearson相关系数（R）仅为0.66,说明OC和EC的来源较为复杂,SOC的产生可能是重要影响因素.ρ（NO₂）与OC/EC呈显著负相关（R=-0.47,P < 0.01）,并且OC/EC（4.0）相对较低,说明天津市区机动车可能对碳气溶胶具有重要影响.ρ（SO₂）与ρ（OC）、ρ（EC）的相关性较低（R均为0.33,P均小于0.01）,说明天津市区碳气溶胶可能受燃煤源的影响较低.改进的EC示踪法主要是利用O₃和CO、EC作为光化学反应和一次源排放的指标,并结合ρ（OC）、ρ（EC）和OC/EC的变化特征,逐步筛选一次排放源主导的时间段的ρ（OC）和ρ（EC）数据,然后利用最小二乘法拟合获得ρ（OC）和ρ（EC）的线性方程,最后进行ρ（SOC）和ρ（POC）（POC为一次有机碳）的估算.天津市区夏季ρ（SOC）的平均值为（2.5±2.0）μg/m3,分别占ρ（OC）和ρ（PM_2.5）的28.8%±15.0%和3.7%±3.6%;ρ（POC）的平均值为（5.2±1.7）μg/m3,分别占ρ（OC）和ρ（PM_2.5）的71.2%±15.0%和8.1%±5.2%,说明天津市区夏季有机碳的主要来源是一次排放源.研究显示,相比于EC示踪法,改进的EC示踪法估算的ρ（SOC）明显降低,ρ（POC）明显升高.AT（大气温度）对ρ（SOC）的影响较为显著,而WS（风速）对ρ（POC）的影响较为显著.      

甘肃亚高山云杉人工林土壤特性及水源涵养功能对林分密度的响应特征

定量分析不同密度云杉（Picea asperata）人工林的土壤特性及水源涵养功能,为人工林可持续经营提供理论依据。以28块7种不同密度梯度的云杉人工幼龄林为研究对象,采用样地调查及取样分析方法,测定土壤理化性质、枯落物持水量以及林地贮水性能等。结果表明：1）林分密度对云杉人工林的土壤容重、孔隙度、有机质含量、土壤持水量、枯落物蓄积量和持水量都具有显著影响,随着林分密度的增加,土壤孔隙度、土壤养分、枯落物蓄积量、枯落物持水量、土壤持水量表现为先增加后减小,而土壤容重则表现为先减小后增加。密度为1 550 株/hm²时林分土壤容重最小（1.09 g/cm³）,总孔隙度较大（58.99%）,有机质含量最高（9.12%）,枯落物总蓄积量最多（44.41 t/hm²）,最大持水量较高（166.67 t/hm²）,是密度为3 000 株/hm²林分的4.49倍,土壤持水性能较好（3 898.93 t/hm²）。2）根据林地总贮水量评价的涵养水源功能依次为林分密度1 550 株/hm²（4 068.36 t/hm²）>密度1 750 株/hm²（3 945.32 t/hm²）>密度1 350株/hm²（3 698.39 t/hm²）>密度1 060 株/hm²（3 484.10 t/hm²）>密度2 300 株/hm²（3 157.60 t/hm²）>密度850 株/hm²（2 915.03 t/hm²）>密度3 000 株/hm²（2 820.81 t/hm²）。3）在该研究的林分密度范围内,密度为1 550 株/hm²时林分的土壤特性及水源涵养功能最佳。     

利用集合均方根卡尔曼滤波反演重庆地区SO2源排放

传统的"自下而上"清单方法估算的排放清单,其数据的准确性和时效性存在较大局限.基于集合均方根卡尔曼滤波的源清单反演方法,结合WRF-CMAQ（天气研究和预报模式-公共多尺度空气质量模型）被用于对以清华大学编制的2010年MEIC（中国多尺度排放清单模型）排放清单为基础制作的重庆地区SO₂排放源进行反演试验以解决准确性和时效性问题,试验时间段为2014年10月15-31日,重庆主城17个环境空气质量国控监测点ρ（SO₂）小时观测资料用于反演及检验.结果表明:该方法能够反演重庆地区SO₂源排放量,随着反演次数增加,基于反演排放源预报的ρ（SO₂）预报误差持续减小,反演4次后预报误差达到比较低的稳定的水平,其均方根误差均低于20 μg/m3. 5次反演后SO₂源排放量用于2014年10月24-29日每天起始预报,其预报的站点、时间平均的均方根误差从100~400 μg/m3降至30 μg/m3以下.反演中应用局地化尺度减少集合取样误差影响,54与81 km两个局地化尺度反演结果对预报改善效果相当,表明主要影响重庆主城ρ（SO₂）的源排放位于主城及周边地区,也说明内源排放对重庆主城ρ（SO₂）起主要影响.反演后面源排放量主城区降幅约为30 kg/（d·km2）,周边地区减少10~20 kg/（d·km2）,主城区部分SO₂点源排放量降幅约为25 kg/（d·km2）,说明2010年MEIC排放清单高估了试验时段重庆地区的SO₂排放.