Spatial evaluation of the risk of groundwater quality degradation. A comparison between disjunctive kriging and geostatistical simulation

In some previous papers a probabilistic methodology was introduced to estimate a spatial index of risk of groundwater quality degradation, defined as the conditional probability of exceeding assigned thresholds of concentration of a generic chemical sampled in the studied water system. A crucial stage of this methodology was the use of geostatistical techniques to provide an estimation of the above-mentioned probability in a number of selected points by crossing spatial and temporal information. In this work, spatial risk values were obtained using alternatively stochastic conditional simulation and disjunctive kriging. A comparison between the resulting two sets of spatial risks, based on global and local statistical tests, showed that they do not come from the same statistical population and, consequently, they cannot be viewed as equivalent in a statistical sense. At a first glance, geostatistical conditional simulation may appear to represent the spatial variability of the phenomenon more effectively, as the latter tends to be smoothed by DK. However, a close examination of real case study results suggests that disjunctive kriging is more effective than simulation in estimating the spatial risk of groundwater quality degradation. In the study case, the potentially ‘harmful event’ considered, threatening a natural ‘vulnerable groundwater system,’ is fertilizer and manure application.     

Space-time estimation of grid-cell hourly ozone levels for assessment of a deterministic model

We present an approach to estimate hourly grid-cell surface ozone concentrations based on observations from point monitoring sites in space, for comparison with grid-based results from the SARMAP photochemical air-quality model for a region of northern California. Statistical estimation is carried out on a transformed (square root) scale, followed by back-transforming to the original scale of ozone in parts per billion, adjusting for bias and variance. We estimate a spatially-varying diurnal mean structure and a non-separable space-time correlation structure on the transformed scale. Temporal pre-whitening is followed by modelling of a spatially non-stationary, diurnally-varying spatial correlation structure using a spatial deformation approach. Comparisons of SARMAP model results with the estimated grid-cell ozone levels are presented.     

芜湖市区春季地表灰尘中汞和砷的空间及粒径分布规律

以芜湖市高新技术开发区、中心城区和经济技术开发区为研究区域,于2008年春季对其地表灰尘中汞和砷含量、空间分布特征及其在粒径中的分布规律进行了研究.结果表明:芜湖市区地表灰尘中汞、砷含量范围分别为0.011～1.477mg·kg-1、3.533～169.368mg·kg-1,平均值分别为0.230、15.371mg·kg-1,分别是土壤背景值的1.9和1.5倍,存在一定程度的污染;;灰尘中汞含量在经济技术开发区较高,而砷则在高新技术开发区出现高值区;;汞属于空间中相关,说明其变异主要受随机或人为因素的影响;;砷属于空间强相关,说明其变异主要受土壤母质、土地利用方式等因素影响;;研究区地表灰尘汞和砷含量大体上呈随粒径减小而增加的趋势;;不同粒径上汞和砷含量的富集比例随粒径减小呈增加的趋势,汞和砷在>200目粒径上的平均富集比例分别为63.5%和55.8%,说明汞更容易富集在细小颗粒上.     

普通克里格法在乌梁素海水体富营养化研究中的应用

以位于我国北方半干旱地区的河套灌区中草型浅水湖泊乌梁素海为研究对象,将实测数据与空间数据应用普通克里格法的理论与方法,尝试研究乌梁素海水质参数空间分布特性。结果显示,乌梁素海水质参数的空间结构变异性是客观存在的,各水质参数都具有决金效应;井对乌采素海水质参数进行克立格插值,为进行水体富营养化评价可以提供更为直观的水环境信息。研究表明乌梁素海水体富营养化程度十分严重,属于中、重度富营养化,研究结果对乌梁素海的湖泊水环境管理具有一定的参考价值。     

山东省典型工业城市土壤重金属来源、空间分布及潜在生态风险评价

选取山东省典型工业城市——莱芜市钢城区为研究区域,系统采集了106个表层土壤样品,测定了As、Cd、Co、Cr、Cu、Hg、Ni、Pb和Zn等9种重金属的含量,分别利用多元统计和地统计方法分析了重金属的来源和空间分布特征,最后对土壤重金属的潜在生态风险进行了评价.结果表明:1研究区9种重金属元素的平均含量均超过了山东省土壤背景值,其中Cd、Hg、Pb和Zn的平均值分别是背景值的2.42、4.69、1.74和1.54倍,在表层土壤中存在明显的富集.2Cd、Pb和Zn主要来源于工业"三废"、交通排放以及农药化肥的施用;Co、Cr和Ni为自然源因子,受到成土母质的控制;As和Hg来源于煤炭燃烧和钢铁冶炼,Cu受自然与人为因素共同影响.3研究区总体上处于中等与高生态风险的临界水平,其中Hg为高生态风险水平,Cd为中等生态风险水平,其他元素则均为低生态风险.     

Spatial distribution of soil heavy metal pollution estimated by different interpolation methods: accuracy and uncertainty analysis

Mapping the spatial distribution of contaminants in soils is the basis of pollution evaluation and risk control. Interpolation methods are extensively applied in the mapping processes to estimate the heavy metal concentrations at unsampled sites. The performances of interpolation methods (inverse distance weighting, local polynomial, ordinary kriging and radial basis functions) were assessed and compared using the root mean square error for cross validation. The results indicated that all interpolation methods provided a high prediction accuracy of the mean concentration of soil heavy metals. However, the classic method based on percentages of polluted samples, gave a pollution area 23.54-41.92% larger than that estimated by interpolation methods. The difference in contaminated area estimation among the four methods reached 6.14%. According to the interpolation results, the spatial uncertainty of polluted areas was mainly located in three types of region: (a) the local maxima concentration region surrounded by low concentration (clean) sites, (b) the local minima concentration region surrounded with highly polluted samples; and (c) the boundaries of the contaminated areas.     

山东省典型金矿区土壤重金属空间特征分析与环境风险评估

以山东省典型金矿区——焦家式金矿带为研究区,系统采集了77个表层土壤样品并对Cu、Pb、Zn和Cr的含量进行了测定;采用空间统计分析方法对重金属的空间变异结构、分布规律及潜在污染风险进行了研究.Cu、Pb、Zn和Cr的平均含量分别为19.41、27.32、49.81和39.27 mg·kg-1.半方差函数拟合表明Cu和Pb属于中等空间自相关,空间分布呈岛状;而Zn和Cr为结构性空间变异,受自然因素的控制,空间分布呈带状和岛状.热点分析与指示克里金插值结果表明,金城镇、辛庄镇与蚕庄镇的交界地带重金属环境风险较高,南部则为安全区,其中Pb的超标概率最大且中高风险区分布范围广泛.研究结果可为研究区土壤重金属污染评价和调控提供参考和依据.     

A COMPARISON OF METHODS FOR CALCULATION OF RADAR-RAINFALL HOURLY ACCUMULATIONS1

ABSTRACT: We compared two interpolation schemes for calculation of hourly accumulation of radar-rainfall. The schemes are: (1) the Advection Method, and (2) the Space-Time Kriging Method. The performance of the methods is investigated using numerical simulation experiments. Space-time evolution of rainfall fields is generated from a stochastic model. The generated fields are sampled following typical radar scanning strategies, and the investigated schemes are applied to obtain accumulated rainfall patterns. The statistical results and a visual analysis of the graphical images suggest that it is advisable to use an interpolation scheme for radar observations even when storm velocity is not high. The Space-Time Kriging Method provides the best results for low wind velocity. The Advection Method has the smallest standard deviation and mean absolute error, and preserves well the true rainfall pattern for high wind velocity.     

中国土壤表层钙元素背景值的地域最佳估值研究

应用地统计学方法研究了中国土壤表层钙元素背景值的空间变异结构,并藉此进行了钙元素背景值的地域估值.结果表明,这种估值方法突出反映了钙元素在中国的宏观变化规律.与趋势面方法相比,具有明显优势.     

Spatial statistical models that use flow and stream distance

We develop spatial statistical models for stream networks that can estimate relationships between a response variable and other covariates, make predictions at unsampled locations, and predict an average or total for a stream or a stream segment. There have been very few attempts to develop valid spatial covariance models that incorporate flow, stream distance, or both. The application of typical spatial autocovariance functions based on Euclidean distance, such as the spherical covariance model, are not valid when using stream distance. In this paper we develop a large class of valid models that incorporate flow and stream distance by using spatial moving averages. These methods integrate a moving average function, or kernel, against a white noise process. By running the moving average function upstream from a location, we develop models that use flow, and by construction they are valid models based on stream distance. We show that with proper weighting, many of the usual spatial models based on Euclidean distance have a counterpart for stream networks. Using sulfate concentrations from an example data set, the Maryland Biological Stream Survey (MBSS), we show that models using flow may be more appropriate than models that only use stream distance. For the MBSS data set, we use restricted maximum likelihood to fit a valid covariance matrix that uses flow and stream distance, and then we use this covariance matrix to estimate fixed effects and make kriging and block kriging predictions. Received: July 2005 / Revised: March 2006