A probabilistic methodology to assess the risk of groundwater quality degradation

An approach to assess the risk of groundwater quality degradation with regard to fixed standards, based on DisjunctiveKriging (DK) is presented. The DK allows one to evaluate the Conditional Probability (CP) of overriding a given threshold of concentration of a pollutant at a given time, and at a generic point in a consideredgroundwater system. The result of such investigation over the considered area can be plotted in form of maps of spatial risk. By repeating this analysis at different times, severalspatial riskmaps will be produced, one for each consideredtime. By means of non-parametric statistics, the temporal trendof the CPs can be evaluated at every point of the considered area. The trend index, assessed by means of a sort of classification of the trend values obtained as described above,can be superimposed on the most recent values of the spatialrisk (i.e.: the most recent values of probability). Consequentlya classification of the risk of groundwater quality degradationresults with which to weigh both the spatial distribution and thetemporal behaviour of the probability to exceed a given standardthreshold. The methodology has been applied to values of nitrateconcentration sampled in the monitoring well network of theModena plain, northern Italy. This area is characterised by intensive agricultural exploitation and hog breeding along withindustrial and civil developments. The influence of agriculture on groundwater results in a high nitrate pollution that limitsits use for potable purposes.     

Multiple-point variance analysis for optimal adjustment of a monitoring network

The selection of sampling sites is one of the major tasks in thedesign of a monitoring network. Many environmental networkssuffer from either insufficient information or redundantinformation. This study presents a new, effective algorithm thataddresses the issues of insufficient and reduction information.The new algorithm is denoted as Multiple-Point Variance Analysis(MPV). MPV includes both Multiple-Point Variance ReductionAnalysis (MPVR) for adding information-effectives sites, andMultiple-Point Variance Increase Analysis (MPVI) for deletinginformation-redundant sites. The MPVR and MPVI equations areverified under two hypothetical cases. The optimal procedures ofthis new algorithm include determination of simultaneousadditions or deletions of groups of sampling points. Theseproposed optimization procedures eliminate the need for anyspatial discretizations or sequential selections. The efficiencyof these optimal procedures is tested under actual fieldconditions. The results show that the optimal MPV is aneffective tool for adjustment of existing sampling networks.     

Comparison of ordinary and lognormal kriging on skewed data of total cadmium in forest soils of Sweden

Spatial statistical analysis of georeferenced data of total cadmium (TCd) in forest soils of Sweden was assumed to providemore advantageous maps than traditional interpolated maps. However, 264 measurements of TCd in O-horizon of forest soils displayed skewed frequency distribution. Since atypicalobservations affect badly the variogram, outliers wereidentified, different data transformations were tested andordinary (OK) and lognormal kriging (LK) scenarios werecompared based on cross-validation. Results were comparedusing overall measures of predictors, e.g. traditionalmean squared prediction error (MSPE), mean of krigingvariances, variance ratio, median of internallystandardised residuals, and assessments of classificationaccuracy, such as percentage of correctly predictedsamples and within-class MSPE.One outlier was identified based on the absolute value of skewness of value differences less or equal to one in data pairs separated at certain lag classes. Mapping categories characterised by percentage of correct classification and within-class MSPE were found to be essential in comparison of kriging results additionally to the overall measures. In comparison of kriging methods, OK predicted high values moreaccurately and LK was more effective to predict low and mediumvalues. Thus, OK was suggested for mapping high concentration of TCd and other pollutants. Percentage of correctly predictedsamples and within-class MSPE were found to be dependent on kriging method, as well as on the number and limits of categories.     

Spatial methods for plot-based sampling of wildlife populations

Classical sampling methods can be used to estimate the mean of a finite or infinite population. Block kriging also estimates the mean, but of an infinite population in a continuous spatial domain. In this paper, I consider a finite population version of block kriging (FPBK) for plot-based sampling. The data are assumed to come from a spatial stochastic process. Minimizing mean-squared-prediction errors yields best linear unbiased predictions that are a finite population version of block kriging. FPBK has versions comparable to simple random sampling and stratified sampling, and includes the general linear model. This method has been tested for several years for moose surveys in Alaska, and an example is given where results are compared to stratified random sampling. In general, assuming a spatial model gives three main advantages over classical sampling: (1) FPBK is usually more precise than simple or stratified random sampling, (2) FPBK allows small area estimation, and (3) FPBK allows nonrandom sampling designs.     

COMPARATIVE STUDY OF DROUGHT PREDICTION TECHNIQUES FOR RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: Predicting the likelihood of a drought markedly enhances the efficiency of reservoir operations. This study applies the kriging method and time series analysis to predict inflows to Shihmen Reservoir in northern Taiwan. A subsequent reservoir operation simulation is employed to determine the drought lead time (DLT), the time before the onset of a drought. A more efficient reservoir operational strategy can be established with the aid of DLT and the probability of successful drought prediction (P s). Simulation results of reservoir operation over a period of three decades demonstrate that, at one month DLT, the kriging approach achieves 0.86 of P s for moderate droughts and 0.94 of P s for severe droughts. The kriging approach generally outperformed the time series approach in terms of DLT, P s of drought prediction, and the number of correctly predicted drought events.     

Spatial interpolation of air temperature using environmental context: Application to a crop model

The air temperature is one of the main input data in models for water balance monitoring or crop models for yield prediction. The different phenological stages of plant growth are generally defined according to cumulated air temperature from the sowing date. When these crop models are used at the regional scale, the meteorological stations providing input climatic data are not spatially dense enough or in a similar environment to reflect the crop local climate. Hence spatial interpolation methods must be used. Climatic data, particularly air temperature, are influenced by local environment. Measurements show that the air above dry surfaces is warmer than above wet areas. We propose a method taking into account the environment of the meteorological stations in order to improve spatial interpolation of air temperature. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of these corrected climatic data in crop models. The proposed method is an external drift kriging where the Kriging system is modified to correct local environment effects. The environment of the meteorological stations was characterized using a land use map summarized in a small number of classes considered as a factor influencing local temperature. This method was applied to a region in south-east France (150×250 km) where daily temperatures were measured on 150 weather stations for two years. Environment classes were extracted from the CORINE Landcover map obtained from remote sensing data. Categorical external drift kriging was compared to ordinary kriging by a cross validation study. The gain in precision was assessed for different environment classes and for summer days. We then performed a sensitivity study of air temperature with the crop model STICS. The influence of interpolation corrections on the main outputs as yield or harvest date is discussed. We showed that the method works well for air temperature in summer and can lead to significant correction for yield prediction. For example, we observed by cross validation a bias reduction of 0.5 to 1.0°C (exceptionally 2.5°C for some class), which corresponds to differences in yield prediction from 0.6 to 1.5 t/ha.     

基于贝叶斯公式的地下水污染源及含水层参数同步反演

针对非均质地下含水层污染源识别及含水层参数反演过程中监测方案优化问题,提出一种基于贝叶斯公式及信息熵最小的累进加井的多井监测方案优化方法.首先,构建假想案例下的二维非均质各向同性潜水含水层水流及溶质运移模型,运用GMS软件进行数值模拟求解.采用最优拉丁超立方抽样方法和Kriging法建立数值模拟模型的替代模型.然后以参数后验分布的信息熵最小为目标函数,采用累进加井的方式进行多井监测方案优化设计.最后根据优化后的监测方案,采用差分进化自适应Metropolis算法进行污染源及含水层参数的同步反演.算例研究表明：在兼顾反演精度及监测成本,并保证每个参数分区内至少有1眼监测井的条件下,5眼井组合监测方案（6,5,1,2,8）为最优监测方案.与信息熵最小的10眼井组合监测方案（1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10）的参数反演结果相比,5眼井组合监测方案对11个参数α=（X_S,Y_S,T₁,T₂,Q_s,K₁,K₂,K₃,DL₁,DL₂,DL₃）的后验均值偏离率的平均值虽增大1.2%,但监测成本却是10眼井组合监测方案的50%.     

中国1961-2000年月平均气温空间插值方法与空间分布

利用地理信息系统软件ARC/INFO,在考虑海拔高度对气温影响和没有考虑海拔高度对气温影响的两种情况下,分别运用样条插值法、普通克立格法和逆距离权重法对中国623个气象站1961—2000年40 a的逐月平均气温进行了空间插值,并利用交叉检验方法对插值精度进行了评估,结果表明:考虑了海拔高度影响的3种插值方法的精度都有比较明显的提高,对于普通克立格法,平均绝对误差(MAE)从1.44℃降到0.82℃,均方根误差(RMSE)从2.31℃降到1.28℃;对于逆距离权重法,MAE从1.52℃降到0.88℃,RMSE从2.38℃降到1.34℃;对于样条插值法,MAE从1.54℃降到0.87℃,RMSE从2.49℃降到1.35℃。在6种插值方法中,考虑了海拔高度影响的普通克立格法是最优空间插值方法。     

天津地区土壤多环芳烃的克里格插值与污染评价

应用克里格法研究了天津地区表层土壤中多环芳烃的含量水平及其空间分布规律.在此基础上,参照国外环境标准,对区域表层土壤中10种多环芳烃的污染现状进行了评价.结果显示,区域土壤已经受到一定程度的多环芳烃污染.萘超标倍数最大,强致癌物苯并(a)芘的超标情况也较为严重,需引起进一步的关注.西青区和市区是土壤多环芳烃含量超标最严重的区域.     

太湖西南部沉积物重金属的空间分布特征和污染评价

基于GIS地统计模块,对太湖西南部沉积物6种重金属的空间分布特征和污染状况进行了探讨. 结果表明,太湖西南部沉积物重金属含量显著高于太湖沉积物背景值,w(Cd),w(Cu),w(Zn),w(Pb),w(Ni)和w(As)分别超标4.67,1.27,2.89,2.29,1.94和1.80倍,具有明显的累积效应. 地统计分析表明,太湖西南部沉积物重金属的空间自相关性较弱,说明随机性因素和结构因素对重金属的空间分布有较大的影响. 重金属含量的克里格插值图反映了重金属污染的空间格局,太湖西南区域沉积物已明显受到了重金属Zn,Pb和Cd的污染,西南岸区污染最严重,其次是南岸区,污染最轻的是湖心区.