湖南省高效生态农业模式与综合技术研究总结

文章总结了湖南省10年来推行高效生态农业模式和推广综合农业技术的理论和实践,以及取得的效益。经过10年的努力,5个试点县的生态环境质量得到了显著改善,农业与农村经济得到了巨大发展;累计推广应用面积3.2663106 hm2,新增产值50.90亿元。     

Spatial modeling and prediction under stationary non-geometric range anisotropy

For modeling spatial processes, we propose a rich parametric class of stationary range anisotropic covariance structures that, when applied in R², greatly increases the scope of variogram contors. Geometric anisotropy, which provides the most common generalization of isotropy within stationarity, is a special case. Our class is built from monotonic isotropic correlation functions and special cases include the Matérn and the general exponential functions. As a result, our range anisotropic correlation specification can be attached to a second order stationary spatial process model, unlike ad hoc approaches to range anisotropy in the literature. We adopt a Bayesian perspective to obtain full inference and demonstrate how to fit the resulting model using sampling-based methods. In the presence of measurement error/microscale effect, we can obtain both the usual predictive as well as the noiseless predictive distribution. We analyze a data set of scallop catches under the general exponential range anisotropic model, withholding ten sites to compare the accuracy and precision of the standard and noiseless predictive distributions.     

Modelling and analysis of recruitment distributions

Recruitment data for 18 marine fish stocks are smoothed using 10 parametric families of probability distributions. Comparative fit of the 10 families is assessed by means of the maximized log-likelihood. Results indicate that the gamma distribution provides an overall good fit in the right-hand tail of the data, but that some adjustment to the gamma distribution is called for in the left-hand tail. Weight functions and weighted distributions are suggested as one means of achieving the needed adjustment.     

单甲脒农药对模型池塘生态系统藻类群落结构的影响

在１．５－５０．０ｍｇ／Ｌ的浓度范围内，单甲脒农药对模型池塘生态系统中的浮游植物群落结构有明显影响。尤其在加药的头４ｄ内，藻类种类、数量、多样性指数、种类数比及增长率明显下降，优势比显著上升，敏感种及清洁种减少甚至消失，高浓度（５０．０ｍｇ／Ｌ）的单甲脒在２ｄ内可把藻类全部杀灭。随试验时间的延长，药物不断降解，６ｄ后藻类种类、数量、多样性指数又不断回升。随加药次数的增多，药物对藻类抑制作用明显减弱，藻类的种类、数量、多样性指数等指标不断上升，尤其是藻类数量增加明显，试验后期，藻类数量高低主要受Ｎ、Ｐ浓度大小的影响。     

工业废液纳滤膜分离模型研究

纳滤膜处理工业废液时，纳滤膜系统可以看做一个封闭体系。实验表明透过液通量Jw与压力差呈直线关系；透过液通量Jw与管过液溶质浓度CR都与浓缩时间呈较好的数学关系。但数学关系形式不同；透过液溶质浓度CR与进液溶质浓度Ci呈指数关系；透过液溶质浓度CR与膜压力差△p的关系为指数关系。     

A statistical evaluation of non-ergodic variogram estimators

Geostatistics is a set of statistical techniques that is increasingly used to characterize spatial dependence in spatially referenced ecological data. A common feature of geostatistics is predicting values at unsampled locations from nearby samples using the kriging algorithm. Modeling spatial dependence in sampled data is necessary before kriging and is usually accomplished with the variogram and its traditional estimator. Other types of estimators, known as non-ergodic estimators, have been used in ecological applications. Non-ergodic estimators were originally suggested as a method of choice when sampled data are preferentially located and exhibit a skewed frequency distribution. Preferentially located samples can occur, for example, when areas with high values are sampled more intensely than other areas. In earlier studies the visual appearance of variograms from traditional and non-ergodic estimators were compared. Here we evaluate the estimators' relative performance in prediction. We also show algebraically that a non-ergodic version of the variogram is equivalent to the traditional variogram estimator. Simulations, designed to investigate the effects of data skewness and preferential sampling on variogram estimation and kriging, showed the traditional variogram estimator outperforms the non-ergodic estimators under these conditions. We also analyzed data on carabid beetle abundance, which exhibited large-scale spatial variability (trend) and a skewed frequency distribution. Detrending data followed by robust estimation of the residual variogram is demonstrated to be a successful alternative to the non-ergodic approach.     

Regression analysis of forest inventory data with time and space dependencies

In this paper the data of a forest health inventory are analyzed. Since 1983 the degree of defoliation, together with various explanatory variables (covariates) concerning stand, site, soil and weather, are recorded by the second of the two authors, in the forest district of Rothenbuch (Spessart, Bavaria). The focus is on the space and time dependencies of the data. The mutual relationship of space-time functions and the set of covariates is evaluated. For this we use generalized linear models (GLMs) for ordinal response variables and semiparametric estimation approaches. By using goodness-of-fit measures it turns out that (i) the contribution of space-time functions is quantitatively comparable with that of the set of covariates, (ii) the contribution of space-time functions is small compared with the contribution of a set of variables describing the last-year and neighboring response values. By applying appropriate residual methods a detailed analysis of the individual sites in the area can be carried out. This analysis reveals where the predictive power of the covariates fail to explain the observed defoliation.     

Uncertainty, learning, and the optimal management of wildlife

Wildlife management is limited by uncontrolled and often unrecognized environmental variation, by limited capabilities to observe and control animal populations, and by a lack of understanding about the biological processes driving population dynamics. In this paper I describe a comprehensive framework for management that includes multiple models and likelihood values to account for structural uncertainty, along with stochastic factors to account for environmental variation, random sampling, and partial controllability. Adaptive optimization is developed in terms of the optimal control of incompletely understood populations, with the expected value of perfect information measuring the potential for improving control through learning. The framework for optimal adaptive control is generalized by including partial observability and non-adaptive, sample-based updating of model likelihoods. Passive adaptive management is derived as a special case of constrained adaptive optimization, representing a potentially efficient suboptimal alternative that nonetheless accounts for structural uncertainty.     

活性炭吸附水中铅离子的动态研究

本文采用两种煤质活性炭，研究了其对不同浓度二价铅离子溶液的吸附，应用固定床吸附动力学模型，Ｍａｒｑａｄｔ方法非线性回归固定床吸附流出曲线，获得了铅离子在活性炭上的扩散传质系数。结果发现，孔扩散系数Ｄｐ强裂地依赖于铅离子入口浓度，随着入口浓度的升高，孔扩散系数变小，随后用上述扩攻系数理论预测了其它操作条件下的流出曲线，结果表明实验曲线与理论预测曲线能很好地相符，动态法能可靠地获取固吸附过程的吸附及扩     

拓扑指数在定量结构生物降解性关系中的应用

本文采用二氧化碳生成量实验，对训练组有机物，利用逐步回归分析程序，从计算和十四种分子连接性指数中筛选出与生物降解性最为相关的分子结构描述参数，建立定量结构－生物降解性关系模型，其相关系数为０．９３１，利用该模型对预测组质的预测结果表明，此模型对芳香化合物的好氧生物降解性具有良好的预测能力，其正确预测率达８３．３％。