Valuing uncertain asset cash flows when there are no options: A real options approach

The real option valuation method is often presented as an alternative to the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) approach because it is able to quantify the additional asset value arising from flexible asset management. However, these two valuation methods differ on a more fundamental level: their approach to determining the effects of cash flow uncertainty on asset value. Real option valuation adjusts for risk within the cash flow components while the DCF method discounts for risk at the aggregate net cash flow. This seemingly small difference allows the real option method to differentiate assets according to their unique risk characteristics, while the conventional DCF approach cannot.This paper presents an overview of the real options and conventional DCF frameworks for valuing uncertain cash flows. To emphasize the approaches' different treatment of risk we assume an absence of managerial flexibility. Using simple algebra, this paper demonstrates that the traditional DCF method fails to adequately discount net cash flow risk, no matter what discount rate is used. Finally, in a stylized mining example we show that DCF rules would lead a developer to forego $24.5 million in value creation, at a profitability index of 1.49, by making a poor investment decision.     

城市生活垃圾填埋场选址研究

城市生活垃圾填埋场址的选择涉及到自然地理因素，地质因素、水文地质因素、工程地质因素，社会、经济、法律、交通运输、环境保护等因素，是一项十分复杂的工作。在综述前人城市生活垃圾填埋场选址方法的基础上，提出了用环境系统工程的原理来研究垃圾填埋场选址的问题。阐明影响因子的选择过程。     

构建新型工业化环保支持系统

本文论证了环境保护在实施新型工业化战略中的地位和作用，提出了在推进新型工业化中构筑环保支持系统的意见。     

可渗透反应墙技术中反应介质的研究进展

以PRBs技术中最为关键的填充反应介质为研究对象，介绍了常用的五种反应介质（零价铁、活性炭、无机矿物、黏土、和以固体废弃物为前体材料的反应介质）的研究现状，阐述了影响反应介质选择的主要因素，同时介绍了PRBs技术在实际工程应用中的典型案例，并对PRBs技术的现存问题和未来发展进行了总结和展望，以期为研发长期高效和环境友好型的PRBs反应介质提供有益的支持.     

Sex linkage among genes controlling sexually selected traits

Using literature data on reciprocal crosses I estimated the influence of sex-chromosomal genes on morphological and behavioral traits. To determine a special role of the sex chromosomes for sexually selected traits, I compared the estimated influence of X-chromosomal genes on sexually selected traits with their estimated influence on traits not under sexual selection. About one-third of the phenotypic variation in sexually selected traits is caused by X-chromosomal genes. There was, in contrast, no significant influence of X-chromosomal genes on traits that were classified as not sexually selected. Sexually selected traits thus seem to be influenced significantly more by X-chromosomal genes than traits not under sexual selection. Though this differential influence of X-chromosomal genes cannot readily be explained with current theoretical knowledge, it may shed some light on X-linked hybrid sterility and on the discussion between arbitrary and good-gene models for the evolution of female choice. Received: 30 January 1998 / Accepted after revision: 20 June 1998     

煤矿通风瓦斯氧化处理实验装置设计

我国每年通过煤矿乏风排入大气的甲烷为130～170亿m^3。由于煤矿乏风具有甲烷浓度低（〈0.1%）、富集难、气量大等特点,传统的处理方式是直接排空,造成了严重的污染和温室效应。针对此现状,设计了最大处理量为1 000 m^3/h的煤矿通风瓦斯热氧化实验装置,该实验装置包括配气系统、装置本体、换向系统、启动系统和测控系...     

Area-Based Refinement for Selection of Reserve Sites with the Benefit-Function Approach

Abstract:  Optimization of resource use is necessary for efficient conservation planning. Many reserve-selection algorithms aim to identify representative but inexpensive networks, which may lead to selecting small sites due to their lower costs and collectively higher species richness. Nevertheless, larger sites would be preferable regarding species' long-term persistence. An area-based refinement can be used to overcome this problem. We used a reserve-planning framework in which continuous benefit functions valued representation (numbers of populations), and differential species weights were based on a species' local rarity and threatened status. We introduced a refinement based on the species-area relationship that provides relatively higher values for larger sites. We applied the proposed method to rich fen vegetation in southern Finland. The species-area refinement resulted in a network of significantly larger sites with minor trade-offs with representation (numbers of populations). Giving endangered species higher weights ensured that the trade-off occurred mostly between site size and representation of low-priority species. We recommend using a species-area refinement for practical, maximum-coverage conservation planning.     

基于气象服务信息的应急物资配送路径选择

为构建科学的应急救援体系,基于气象服务信息制定更合理的应急物资配送路径方案。将突发灾害下典型的"单出救点、单受灾点"应急物资配送网络结构作为研究对象。运用衰减系数反映气象条件对物资配送速度的实时影响。构建以满足时间限制和需求量要求为前提的应急物资配送路径选择模型。设计算例进行数值仿真和参数分析,将求解结果与传统最短路径法所选路径方案进行对比分析。结果表明:气象服务提供的衰减系数和途经各区域灾害强度等关键信息对配送路径的优化决策有重要影响。     

含铬废渣填埋场渗滤液污染地下水问题实例分析

结合工程实例叙述了含铬废渣填埋场地的选择．并建立针对填埋场地下水污染问题的数学预测模型,利用该模型对填埋场渗滤液污染地下水进行计算与分析。结果表明,选择合适的填埋场不仅工程措施简单,工程投资少,而且对地下水的污染甚微,能够更好地满足填埋要求。     

基于三角模糊熵-理想点法的LNG接收站选址评价模型研究

为了对LNG接收站选址进行科学评价,综合考虑了环境、政策、交通及经济4方面因素,选取自然条件、安全性及城市发展规划等14个指标作为LNG接收站选址评价指标体系;结合三角模糊熵组合赋权法确定评价指标权重,根据理想点法原理计算理想点贴近度,得到LNG接收站选址评价结果;构建了基于三角模糊熵-理想点法的评价模型,并进行评价模型实例应用。实例应用结果表明:该评价模型的评价结果与LNG接收站选址论证单位的比选结果相一致,验证了该评价模型的可行性和合理性以及评价方法的有效性。该方法为LNG接收站选址评价提供了1种新的思路。