湖泊水质富营养化评价的模糊神经网络方法

为了探索人工神经网络用于湖泊营养化评价的可能性,提出了基于多准则学习的模糊神经网络湖泊水质营养化评价模型。该模型应用于我国五大主要湖泊水质营养化的评价结果表明,模糊神经网络用于湖泊水质营养化评价,具有简便、实用、客观性和广泛的通用性。      

Evaluation of trajectories calculated from ecmwf data against constant volume balloon flights during etex

This paper validates trajectories calculated from ECMWF analyses against the tracks of constant volume balloons (CVBs) released during the European tracer experiment (ETEX). The altitudes of the calculated trajectories were adjusted to the altitudes of the respective balloons in short intervals to allow direct comparisons. The agreement between the calculated trajectories and the balloon tracks was very good for the first experiment (individual errors from 1 to 26%, average 15%), and excellent (errors from 2 to 11%, average 6%) for the second one. The agreement for the second experiment was probably partly better because the CVBs travelled above the planetary boundary layer, but the small errors also indicate that the ECMWF fields of the horizontal wind were of exceptionally good quality in the second experiment. This is in sharp contrast to the results of the dispersion models which all failed in the prediction of the perfluorocarbon tracer dispersion for the second experiment. A likely explanation for this is that vertical motions, possibly on small scales, were not correctly captured by the ECMWF analyses, but it is not possible to clarify this with the CVB data.     

RESPONSE OF NORTH AMERICAN FRESHWATER LAKES TO SIMULATED FUTURE CLIMATES1

ABSTRACT: We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO₂ doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (> 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30°C over the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature.     

白洋淀北岸农田土壤特性的表征

本文采用标准方法,测定了白洋淀北岸部分农田土壤的粒度组成、ｐＨ和有机碳含量等指标,对该地区土壤的特性进行了表征分析。结果表明,土壤的平均粒度分布大于２０μｍ的占５２．７３％,主要属于砂壤土。与１０年前相比,ｐＨ值变化不大;而有机碳含量是１０年前的１．２６倍。ｐＨ随土壤的垂直深度而略有增加,而有机碳含量则随土壤的垂直深度而减少。     

北京地区大气中可吸入颗粒物的污染现状分析

利用2002年7月—2003年6月可吸入颗粒物(PM10)20余站点的监测资料,分析获得了北京地区PM10的浓度水平和地域分布特征。分析表明:远郊区县城关镇与市区污染水平相当;西南部和南部较其他地区污染严重;北京地区背景浓度很高,是国家标准年浓度限值的75%。这一分析结果可为颗粒物污染的进一步研究提供基础信息和建议。      

Responses of chlorophyll fluorescence and nitrogen level of Leymus chinensis seedling to changes of soil moisture and temperature

Controlled experiment of Leymus chinensis seedlings grown in the environmental growth chambers at 3 soil moisture levels and 3 temperature levels was conducted in order to improve the understanding how leaf photosynthetic parameters will respond to climatic change. The results indicated that soil drought and high temperature decreased the photochemical efficiency of photosystem ( Fw/Fm ), the overall photochemical quantum yield of PSIl(yield), the coefficient of photochemical fluorescence quenching(qp), but increased the coefficient of non-photochemical fluorescence quenching( q, ). Severe soil drought would decrease Fv/Fm and yield by 3.12% and 37.04% under 26% condition, respectively, and 6.60% and 73.33% under 32% condition, respectively,suggesting that higher temperature may enhance the negative effects of soil drought. All the soil drought treatments resulted in the decline in leaf nitrogen content. There was no significant effect of temperature on leaf nitrogen level,but higher temperature significantly reduced the root nitrogen content and the ratio of root nitrogen to leaf nitrogen,indicating the different strategies of adaptation to soil drought and temperature. It was also implied that higher temperature would enhance the effect of soil drought on leaf photosynthetic capacity, decrease the adaptability of Leymus chinensis to drought.     

Improving construction site safety through leader-based verbal safety communication

Background

The construction industry is one of the most injury-prone industries, in which production is usually prioritized over safety in daily on-site communication. Workers have an informal and oral culture of risk, in which safety is rarely openly expressed. This paper tests the effect of increasing leader-based on-site verbal safety communication on the level of safety and safety climate at construction sites. Method: A pre-post intervention-control design with five construction work gangs is carried out. Foremen in two intervention groups are coached and given bi-weekly feedback about their daily verbal safety communications with their workers. Foremen-worker verbal safety exchanges (experience sampling method, n = 1,693 interviews), construction site safety level (correct vs. incorrect, n = 22,077 single observations), and safety climate (seven dimensions, n = 105 questionnaires) are measured over a period of up to 42 weeks. Results: Baseline measurements in the two intervention and three control groups reveal that foremen speak with their workers several times a day. Workers perceive safety as part of their verbal communication with their foremen in only 6-16% of exchanges, and the levels of safety at the sites range from 70-87% (correct observations). Measurements from baseline to follow-up in the two intervention groups reveal that safety communication between foremen and workers increases significantly in one of the groups (factor 7.1 increase), and a significant yet smaller increase is found when the two intervention groups are combined (factor 4.6). Significant increases in the level of safety are seen in both intervention groups (7% and 12% increases, respectively), particularly in regards to 'access ways' and 'railings and coverings' (39% and 84% increases, respectively). Increases in safety climate are seen in only one of the intervention groups with respect to their 'attention to safety.' No significant trend changes are seen in the three control groups on any of the three measures. Conclusions: Coaching construction site foremen to include safety in their daily verbal exchanges with workers has a significantly positive and lasting effect on the level of safety, which is a proximal estimate for work-related accidents. It is recommended that future studies include coaching and feedback at all organizational levels and for all involved parties in the construction process. Building client regulations could assign the task of coaching to the client appointed safety coordinators or a manager/supervisor, and studies should measure longitudinal effects of coaching by following foremen and their work gangs from site to site.     

平交道口冗余控制系统的建模及成本收益分析

将成本收益的分析方法应用在控制系统设计中。采用随机Petri网基于控制过程及系统可靠性对道口控制系统进行建模。在可靠性建模中,基于冗余系统的冷备及热备原理对控制系统的各个部件分别进行描述。基于统计数据确定非冗余控制系统Petri网模型参数。针对冷备及热备的冗余控制系统各部件的系统模型,通过仿真确定冗余系统相对非冗余系统所降低的道口事故率,继而计算出冗余控制的收益。将收益与增加设备的成本进行对比分析,结果表明,控制系统中不同部件的冷备及热备冗余都具有不同的成本收益。     

中国民航行业可接受的安全水平研究

中国民航局提出持续安全理念,并正在制定国家航空安全方案,推动行业安全管理由目前基于规章符合性的安全监管逐渐转向规章符合性基础上的安全绩效监管,其中一项重要的工作是设定中国民航业可接受的安全水平,来衡量民航业是否满足持续改进安全的目标的要求。本文根据国际民航组织对可接受安全水平的设定指南,同时参考国外民航常用的事故指标,设计了一套中国民航行业可接受安全水平的指标体系,该指标体系包括安全评估指标、安全绩效评估指标和安全指数三层,并对该指标体系内事故率指标和事故征候率指标设定了未来10年的目标值。该指标体系及其目标值的设定不仅可作为衡量民航是否持续安全的标准,也可为航空运输企业设定自身的安全绩效考核指标提供参考。     

典型养殖型湖泊中的重金属含量及健康风险特征——以宿鸭湖为例

为评估典型水产养殖型湖泊中的重金属含量水平及其人体健康风险特征,系统采集并测定了宿鸭湖湖水、周边地下水、沉积物及鱼体中的重金属含量.在此基础上计算了不同重金属在不同介质间(湖水-鱼体、湖水-沉积物及沉积物-鱼体)的转移因子,并通过健康风险指数计算定量分析了宿鸭湖水生态系统中重金属对人体的健康影响,以及不同暴露途径的风险贡献率.结果表明:Zn、Ba和Sr在不同介质体内含量均较高,而Sn和Cd的含量均比较低.Cr和Zn在鱼体中的均值含量超过WHO鱼类产品中重金属的含量限值,具有潜在毒性;湖水和地下水中的所有重金属浓度均低于饮用水标准中的相关限值;部分沉积物样品中Cr、Ni、Cu、Zn、Cd和Pb含量超出环境保护部《土壤环境质量标准》(GB15618—2008)自然背景值,但低于美国华盛顿州沉积物化学标准(WAC 172-204-320)中的含量限值,已构成轻微污染.不同介质间的转化因子分析表明,鱼体对湖水中的Zn、Sr、Ba、Cu、Cr、Ni、Co、Sn和Cd均存在富集作用;但除Zn以外,鱼体对沉积物中的其他重金属无明显的富集作用;宿鸭湖水生态系统中的重金属Cr对人体的HRI值为1.6,其健康危害效应不可忽视;食用鱼类是导致Cr人体健康危害的主要途径,贡献率高达94%;最后,与非养殖型湖泊相比,宿鸭湖水库中鱼体内Pb和Cr的含量明显偏高,且重金属从湖水到沉积物的转移因子明显偏高,而从湖水到鱼的生物浓缩因子相对较低.