基于双指标的安康水库防洪预报调度规则研究

随着水文预报水平的提高,考虑预报信息的防洪预报调度方式日益受到重视。对安康水库实施防洪预报调度的可行性进行了分析,采用“逐级调节法”反复试算修正,确定了以“预报累积净雨量”为主判断指标、“库水位”为辅助指标的安康水库双指标防洪预报调度规则,并对设计洪水及实际洪水进行了调节,调节结果与常规调度比较,水库水位提前降低至汛限水位以下,增加了防洪库容,减小了洪峰段下泄流量,降低了水库最高水位,提高了防洪能力。同时选择不同起调水位,对设计洪水及实际洪水进行调节, 确定合适起调水位,并分析了预报调度和常规调度的风险。结果显示：起调水位抬升,防洪预报调度的风险有所增加,但仍小于常规调度风险,为更好的实现洪水资源的有效利用,建议预报调度起调水位定为3260 m     

水位变动下三峡库区消落带植物群落特征

水位变动是湿地的基本特征之一,对湿地生态系统意义重大。为了解水位变动对三峡库区消落带植物群落的影响,于2010年8月对白夹溪消落带植物群落进行调查,采用TWINSPAN分类法对植物群落进行分类。结果表明:共发现维管植物85种,隶属34科70属;植物群落可划分为18个类型,狗牙根等5种群落为白夹溪消落带代表性植物群落;随着淹水程度的加深,群落组成呈现出由旱生植物到湿生植物的过渡趋势;植物群落香农指数、均匀度指数、丰富度指数和生物量指数随水位梯度呈“∧”型变化趋势,辛普森指数呈“∨”型变化趋势。与156 m蓄水周期相比,植物物种数量、群落类型及组成、多样性均发生改变。水位变动是消落带新生湿地植物群落变化的主要驱动因子     

关于推动我国环保产业发展再上新台阶的思考

从狭义和广义两个角度对环保产业内涵进行了梳理,在此基础上,提出环保产业的内涵和外延是随着社会经济和环境保护事业的发展而与时俱进、不断完善的;通过对环保产业发展阶段的历史分析,归纳提出环保产业正在由单元服务时代走向综合化效果服务时代;在对环保产业体系进行总结概括的同时,提出在保持门类齐全的前提下,环保产业分类将会更加细致和全面;研究提出要准确把握环保产业的发展规律,特别是环境服务业比重提高已成为现代环保产业走向成熟的标志;要科学恰当定义环保产业内涵,建立合乎现代环保产业发展特征的行业统计制度;通过内外驱动同时发力促进环保产业发展,推进环保产业再上新台阶。这是当前环保产业发展中必须要认清的问题。     

Can California coastal managers plan for sea-level rise in a cost-effective way?

This paper examines five representative sites on the California coast to illustrate a cost-effective methodology using tools and data that local decision makers can apply to analyse the economics of sea level rise (SLR) adaptation. We estimate the costs/benefits of selected responses (e.g. no action, nourishment, seawalls) to future flooding and erosion risks exacerbated by SLR. We estimate the economic value of changes to public/private property, recreational and habitat value, and beach related spending/tax revenues. Our findings indicate that the costs of SLR are significant but uneven across communities, and there is no single best strategy for adaptation. For example, Los Angeles's Venice Beach could lose $450 million in tourism revenue by 2100 with a 1.4 m SLR scenario while San Francisco's Ocean Beach would lose $80 million, but the impacts to structures could total nearly $560 million at Ocean Beach compared to $50 million at Venice Beach.     

近三十年云南九大高原湖泊水面面积遥感变化监测

云南省九大高原湖泊对于云南省社会经济可持续发展具有极其重要的意义。利用30 m分辨率的Landsat系列遥感数据和1.5 m分辨率的SPOT6/7遥感数据分别对云南省九大高原湖泊1989,1993,2000,2007,2015年的湖面面积进行了动态监测。结果表明:云南省九大高原湖泊在1989~2015年间总体上较为稳定,湖体湖面面积共减少了约41 km~2(约4%),但各湖变化差异较大。杞麓湖和异龙湖湖面面积持续快速萎缩,至2015年异龙湖已萎缩了1989年湖体湖面面积的40%。其中异龙湖萎缩的主要原因是干旱和围湖造田,而滇池变化波动较大,原因主要在于工业发展及工程治理。通过对同期的Landsat 8OLI数据与SPOT6/7数据解译的杞麓湖和异龙湖湖面面积对比发现不同空间分辨率的解译结果有较为明显差异(2.8%和1.7%),表明在采用多源遥感数据进行湖泊面积解译时需要考虑不同空间分辨率的影响。     

改良剂对湿地土壤团聚体及抗悬浮能力的影响试验

以巢湖十五里河河口湿地土壤为研究对象,选用PAM(J)、PAM+生物炭(SJ)和PAM+泥炭(NJ)为土壤结构改良剂,研究改良剂对淹水条件下培养后土壤水稳性团聚体数量、土壤抗悬浮能力和土壤磷释放的影响。结果表明,四种处理(CK、NJ、J和SJ)0.25 mm水稳性团聚体含量大小顺序为:J(58.73±0.57%)SJ(48.27±3.58%)NJ(34.47±2.02%)CK(2.31±0.15%)。在室内风浪扰动模拟实验中,扰动后上覆水体悬浮物浓度(SS)和水体磷浓度的大小顺序均是:CKNJJSJ,且CK显著大于NJ、J和SJ。添加PAM(J)、PAM+生物炭(SJ)和PAM+泥炭(NJ)不仅能显著提高0.25 mm研究区湿地土壤水稳性团聚体的含量,也能显著增强风浪扰动下淹水土壤的抗悬浮能力,进而显著降低淹水后土壤磷释放能力,其中以添加PAM+生物炭组合提升淹水后湿地土壤抗悬浮和降低磷释放能力的效果最佳。     

中国省域碳排放总量控制目标分解研究

为确保实现中国CO2排放在2030年左右达到峰值的承诺,在"十三五"期间探索开展省级层面的碳排放总量控制目标分解是关键措施。基于地区差异构建碳排放总量控制目标分解模型,综合考虑公平、效率和可行三类因素,本研究以浙江省为例,将2013-2020年碳排放总量控制目标分解到各个地市。研究结果表明,浙江省11个地市的碳排放总量控制目标在四类不同情景下基本保持一致。不同权重情景下的结果均有效反映出各地市在经济发展、人民生活和技术水平等方面的差异,表明通过该模型分解碳排放总量控制目标基本合理可行。偏重公平的方案在协调区域经济发展差异方面具有较大优势,该方案一定程度上可倒逼传统经济发展模式向低碳经济转型;偏重效率的方案可最大效率地利用碳排放空间,但需给予足够的资金和技术支持;"十三五"期间我国建成统一的碳交易市场后,偏重可行的分配方案可通过碳交易市场手段实现各地市碳减排和经济发展的双赢。此外,充分发挥战略预留碳排放指标的作用可有效保证各省实现碳排放总量控制目标。尽管在选择分配指标项和分解战略预留目标时仍然存有不确定性,但可随着省级应对气候变化统计体系的建立与完善,以及各省"国民经济和社会发展十三五规划"的出台而逐步减小。本研究创新性地为中国经济发达省份开展碳排放总量控制目标的地市分解工作提供兼顾公平、效率和可行的方案。     

不同退耕年限下菜子湖湿地土壤活性铝形态特征

选取菜子湖区不同退耕年限(3、5、7、9、11和21 a)湿地、以仍耕油菜地和原始湿地土壤为研究对照,分析了土壤全铝和活性铝形态组分特征,探讨退耕还湖后湿地土壤铝元素组分特征变化及其生态效应。结果表明,研究区土壤全铝含量和活性铝含量分别在16.78~57.05 g/kg和1 699.94~3 823.49 mg/kg之间,其中活性铝总量占全铝含量的6.70%~11.84%。退耕还湖3~11a期间,土壤全铝、活性铝总量及5种形态活性铝总体均随退耕年限延长而增加;退耕11~21 a期间均下降。不同形态活性铝中,可溶性铝Al S含量最低,而酸溶无机铝和腐殖酸铝Al-HA含量较高,分别占活性铝总量的42%~53%和39%~50%,左右着活性铝总量的变化。分析讨论表明退耕后湿地植被和水文条件的改变导致土壤粘粒,有效磷和有机质的变化,进而影响退耕后土壤活性铝组分特征。其中0~5 cm土壤毒性较强的交换性铝Al3+和羟基铝Al(OH)2+、含量均在退耕3~9 a期间逐渐增加,占活性铝总量的比例也有所增加,该退耕期湿地土壤存在一定的铝毒生态风险。     

Growth and photosynthetic responses to copper in wild grapevine

The present study evaluates the tolerance and accumulation potential of Vitis vinifera ssp. sylvestris under moderate and high external Cu levels. A greenhouse experiment was conducted in order to investigate the effects of a range of external Cu concentrations (0–23 mmol L⁻¹) on growth and photosynthetic performance by measuring gas exchange, chlorophyll fluorescence parameters and photosynthetic pigments. We also measured the total copper, nitrogen, phosphorus, sulphur, calcium, magnesium, iron, potassium and sodium concentrations in the plant tissues. All the experimental plants survived even with external Cu concentrations as high as 23 mmol L⁻¹ (1500 mg Cu L⁻¹), although the excess of metal resulted in a biomass reduction of 35%. The effects of Cu on growth were linked to a reduction in net photosynthesis, which may be related to the effect of the high concentration of the metal on photosynthetic electron transport. V. vinifera ssp. sylvestris survived with leaf Cu concentrations as high as 80 mg kg⁻¹ DW and growth parameters were unaffected by leaf tissue concentrations of 35 mg Cu kg⁻¹ DW. The results of our study indicate that plants of V. vinifera ssp. sylvestris from the studied population are more tolerant to Cu than the commercial varieties of grapevine that have been studied in the literature, and could constitute a basis for the genetic improvement of Cu tolerance in grapevine.     

Low dose effects and non-monotonic dose responses for endocrine active chemicals: Science to practice workshop: Workshop summary

A workshop was held in Berlin September 12–14th 2012 to assess the state of the science of the data supporting low dose effects and non-monotonic dose responses (“low dose hypothesis”) for chemicals with endocrine activity (endocrine disrupting chemicals or EDCs). This workshop consisted of lectures to present the current state of the science of EDC action and also the risk assessment process. These lectures were followed by breakout sessions to integrate scientists from various backgrounds to discuss in an open and unbiased manner the data supporting the “low dose hypothesis”. While no consensus was reached the robust discussions were helpful to inform both basic scientists and risk assessors on all the issues. There were a number of important ideas developed to help continue the discussion and improve communication over the next few years.