洪泽湖藻类与环境因子逐步回归统计和蓝藻水华初步预测

以洪泽湖2008—2010年的连续监测资料为基础,运用多元逐步回归统计方法,选择水温等12项环境因子与藻类叶绿素a等5项生物因子进行逐步回归分析,找出与生物因子显著相关的因子,建立多元逐步回归方程,预测洪泽湖藻类密度的变化情况,初步进行了洪泽湖蓝藻水华的预测预报。结果显示,总磷、总氮、氨氮和水深为洪泽湖藻类密度的显著相关因子,透明度、水温、水深为蓝藻密度的显著相关因子。     

建筑胶黏剂使用VOCs排放系数与排放清单

建筑装饰是我国VOCs重要人为排放源之一,关于建筑胶黏剂VOCs排放相关研究极少.本文以建筑胶黏剂为研究对象,通过实测获取各类建筑胶黏剂VOCs含量水平和排放系数,采用排放系数法,自上而下建立了我国2013～2017年建筑胶黏剂VOCs排放清单.结果表明,建筑胶黏剂使用VOCs综合排放系数为97 kg·t^-1,其中溶剂型、水基型和本体型建筑胶黏剂的VOCs排放系数分别为543、45和63 kg·t^-1; 2013～2017年我国建筑胶黏剂使用VOCs排放量分别为16.5、18.1、18.8、20.1和21.9万t.水基型、本体型和溶剂型建筑胶黏剂的VOCs排放量贡献分别为25.5%、23.6%和50.9%; 2017年山东、江苏、浙江、四川、广东、河南、云南和福建等8省贡献较大,排放量合计为12.0万t,占全国建筑胶黏剂VOCs排放量的约55%.     

湖泊底泥挖掘可能导致水体氮磷平衡破坏的研究

挖掘底泥是减少富营养化湖泊内源性氮、磷元素的主要手段 ,但若挖掘不当 ,则一段时间内可能会导致水体氮、磷平衡破坏 ,富营养化加剧。从底泥挖掘可能导致水体营养元素平衡破坏的成因入手 ,探讨避免水体富营养化加剧的对策。     

特征分析方法在江河水质评价中的应用

本文着重介绍了特征分析方法的理论模型,并把该模型具体地运用到了吉林省江河水质评价中,依据其分析结果,对我省的江河水质污染程度进行了分级划分,相信对江河治理会起到一定的指导作用。     

基于Vague集的集对分析在湖泊富营养化评价中的应用

针对湖泊富营养化评价的不确定型多属性决策问题,提出了Vague集的集对分析模型,详细介绍了集对分析和Vague集的基本理论、Vague集的表示方法和Vague集相似度的同异反状态关系.建立了湖泊富营养化评价指标体系,引入了超标权重确定各湖泊指标权重,再依据待评湖泊关于等级i特征的Vague集和理想Vague集的相似度构成特征值法确定评价等级,并应用该模型对我国9个湖泊的富营养化程度进行了评价,该方法的评价结果与实际情况基本相符,为湖泊的治理和保护提供了科学依据.     

现代中国海平面变化规律及发展趋势的初步分析

本文根据对大量实际观测资料的统计分析认为:中国区域海面里缓慢上升趋势,在此背景下,不同地区升降趋向和幅度差异巨大;控制海面变化的因素具有多元化特点;在今后数十年内,气候和海平面的自然变化不剧烈,温室效应所引起的海平面上升幅度不超过1～2mm/a。     

Greenhouse effect and coastal wetland policy: How Americans could abandon an area the size of Massachusetts at minimum cost

Climatologists generally expect an anthropogenic global warming that could raise sea level 30–150 cm in the next century and more thereafter. One of the impacts would be the loss of coastal wetlands. Although the inundation of adjacent dryland would enable new wetlands to form, much of this land is or will soon be developed. If developed areas are protected, wetlands will be squeezed between an advancing sea and the land being protected, which has already happened in China and the Netherlands, where people have built dikes for centuries. Unlike those countries, the United States has enough land to accommodate the landward migration of wetlands; but governments lack the funds to purchase all the coastal lowlands that might be inundated and the legal authority to prohibit their development. We propose a third approach: allowing property owners to use coastal lowlands today as they choose, but setting up a legal mechanism to ensure that the land is abandoned if and when sea level rises enough to inundate it. Although compensation may be required, this approach would cost less than 1% as much as purchasing the land, and would be (1) economically efficient by enabling real estate markets to incorporate expectations of future sea level rise; (2) constitutional by compensating property owners; and (3) politically feasible by pleasing people who care about the long-term fate of the coastal environment without disturbing people who either are unconcerned about the distant future or do not believe sea level will rise. This article demonstrates that it would be irrational to delay policy formulation until sea level rise projections are more precise. The cost will be small if we act now but great if we wait, and sea level is already rising along most coasts. The US government should develop a strategy in the next three years. The opinions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of EPA and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

鄱阳湖区能源消费及其对生态环境的影响

分析鄱阳湖区农村能源消费现状及其对生态环境的影响，指出：鄱阳湖区目前乃至今后相当长一段时间内仍将面临能源短缺危机，必须采取有效措施才能促进湖区农村经济发展，改善农业生态环境     

大亚湾海洋生物体中的砷

为也了解大亚湾海洋生物体Ａｓ含量的背景水平，１９９３年大亚湾１５个测站采集了海洋样品，对其Ａｓ含量进行了测定和评价。鱼类，甲索类，头足类和贝类Ａｓ含量的平均值分别为０．４５×１０＾－６，４．７０×１０＾－６，２．２８×１０＾－６和５．５７×１０＾－６，表现出明显的种类间差异。     

浩坤水电站水库岩溶渗漏研究

浩坤水电站位于碳酸盐岩地区,岩溶发育,水文地质条件复杂。水库右岸发育的呈串珠状平行于河谷展布的低邻谷岩溶洼地和库首左侧发育的连通水库内外的赶洞古暗河是水库潜在的主要渗漏通道。通过库区水文地质调查、岩溶洼地群水位同步观测、示踪试验等勘察试验研究工作,查明了浩坤水电站库区岩溶渗漏的主要部位、性质,提出了水库防渗处理意见,并评价了成库条件。