易燃、易爆危险化学品铁路运输危险性分析

从定性和定量两个方面对易燃、易爆危险化学品的铁路槽罐车运输过程和装卸过程的危险性进行分析,利用道化学火灾爆炸指数法计算易燃、易爆危险化学品铁路罐车的火灾爆炸指数,进行重大危险源辨识,并对重大危险源的概念进行了理论探讨,提出移动式重大危险源的概念。     

Assessment of soil erosion under rainfed sugarcane in KwaZulu‐Natal,South Africa

Soil erosion from agricultural land use runoff is a major threat to the sustainability of soil composition and water resource integrity. Sugarcane is an important cash and food security crop in South Africa, subjected to an intensive soil erosion, and consequently, severe land degradation. This study aimed to investigate soil erosion and associated soil and cover factors under rainfed sugarcane, in a small catchment, KwaZulu‐Natal, South Africa. Three replicated runoff plots were installed at different slope positions (down, mid and upslope) within cultivated sugarcane fields to monitor soil erosion during the 2016–2017 rainy season. On average, annual runoff (RF) was significantly greater from 10 m² plots with 1163.77 ± 2.63 l/m/year compared to 1 m² plots. However, sediment concentration (SC) was significantly lower in 10 m² (0.34 ± 0.04 g/l) compared to 1 m² (6.94 ± 0.24 g/l) plots. The annual soil losses (SL) calculated from 12 rainfall events was 58.36 ± 0.77 and 8.84 ± 0.20 t/ha from 1 m² and 10 m² plots, respectively. The 1 m² plot, SL (2.4 ± 1.41 ton/ha/year) in the upslope experienced 33% more loss than the midslope and 50% more loss than the downslope position. SL was relatively lower from the 10 m² plots than the 1 m² plots, which is explained by high sediment deposition at the greater plot scale. SL was negatively correlated with the soil organic carbon stocks (r = ?0.82) and soil surface cover (r = ?0.55). RF decreased with the increase of slope gradient (r = ?0.88) and soil infiltration rate (r = ?0.87). There were considerable soil losses from cultivated sugarcane fields with low organic matter. These findings suggest that to mitigate soil erosion, soil organic carbon stocks and vegetation cover needs to be increased through appropriate land management practices, particularly in cultivated areas with steep gradients.     

The Effects of Irrigation and Climate on the High Plains Aquifer: A County‐Level Econometric Analysis

The High Plains Aquifer (HPA) underlies parts of eight states and 208 counties in the central area of the United States (U.S.). This region produces more than 9% of U.S. crops sales and relies on the aquifer for irrigation. However, these withdrawals have diminished the stock of water in the aquifer. In this paper, we investigate the aggregate county‐level effect on the HPA of groundwater withdrawal for irrigation, of climate variables, and of energy price changes. We merge economic theory and hydrological characteristics to jointly estimate equations describing irrigation behavior and a generalized water balance equation for the HPA. Our simple water balance model predicts, at average values for irrigation and precipitation, an HPA‐wide average decrease in the groundwater table of 0.47 feet per year, compared to 0.48 feet per year observed on average across the HPA during this 1985–2005 period. The observed distribution and predicted change across counties is in the (?3.22, 1.59) and (?2.24, 0.60) feet per year range, respectively. The estimated impact of irrigation is to decrease the water table by an average of 1.24 feet per year, whereas rainfall recharges the level by an average of 0.76 feet per year. Relative to the past several decades, if groundwater use is unconstrained, groundwater depletion would increase 50% in a scenario where precipitation falls by 25% and the number of degree days above 36°C doubles. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Changes in Hydrology of the Ganges Delta of Bangladesh and Corresponding Impacts on Water Resources

The Ganges Delta in Bangladesh is an example of water‐related catastrophes in a major rural river basin where limitations in quantity, quality, and timing of available water are producing disastrous conditions. Water availability limitations are modifying the hydrologic characteristics especially when water allocation is controlled from the upstream Farakka Barrage. This study presents the changes and consequences in the hydrologic regime due to climate‐ and human‐induced stresses. Flow duration curves (FDCs), rainfall elasticity, and temperature sensitivity were used to assess the pre‐ and post‐barrage water flow patterns. Hydrologic and climate indices were computed to provide insight on hydro‐climatic variability and trend. Significant increases in temperature, evapotranspiration, hot days, heating, and cooling degree days indicate the region is heading toward a warmer climate. Moreover, increase in high‐intensity rainfall of short duration is making the region prone to extreme floods. FDCs depict a large reduction in river flows between pre‐ and post‐barrage periods, resulting in lower water storage capacity. The reduction in freshwater flow increased the extent and intensity of salinity intrusion. This freshwater scarcity is reducing livelihood options considerably and indirectly forcing population migration from the delta region. Understanding the causes and directions of hydrologic changes is essential to formulate improve water resources management in the region.     

Climate and Land Use Effects on Hydrologic Processes in a Primarily Rain‐Fed,Agricultural Watershed

Anticipating changes in hydrologic variables is essential for making socioeconomic water resource decisions. This study aims to assess the potential impact of land use and climate change on the hydrologic processes of a primarily rain‐fed, agriculturally based watershed in Missouri. A detailed evaluation was performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for the near future (2020–2039) and mid‐century (2040–2059). Land use scenarios were mapped using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects model. Ensemble results, based on 19 climate models, indicated a temperature increase of about 1.0°C in near future and 2.0°C in mid‐century. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed distinct annual and seasonal hydrologic variations. Annual precipitation was projected to increase from 6% to 7%, which resulted in 14% more spring days with soil water content equal to or exceeding field capacity in mid‐century. However, summer precipitation was projected to decrease, a critical factor for crop growth. Higher temperatures led to increased potential evapotranspiration during the growing season. Combined with changes in precipitation patterns, this resulted in an increased need for irrigation by 38 mm representing a 10% increase in total irrigation water use. Analysis from multiple land use scenarios indicated converting agriculture to forest land can potentially mitigate the effects of climate change on streamflow, thus ensuring future water availability.     

Modeling Hydrological and Environmental Consequences of Climate Change and Urbanization in the Boise River Watershed,Idaho

The potential impacts driven by climate variability and urbanization in the Boise River Watershed (BRW), located in southwestern Idaho, are evaluated. The outcomes from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and land use and land cover (LULC) analysis have been incorporated into a hydrological and environmental modeling framework to characterize how climate variability and urbanization can affect the local hydrology and environment at the BRW. The combined impacts of future climate and LULC change are also evaluated relative to the historical baseline conditions. For modeling exercises, Hydrological Simulation Program‐Fortran (HSPF) is used in parallel computing and statistical techniques, including spatial downscaling and bias correlation, are employed to evaluate climate consequences derived from GCMs as well. The implications of climate variability and land use change driven by urbanization are then observed to evaluate how these overall global challenges can affect water quantity and quality conditions at the BRW. The results show the combined impacts of both climate change and urbanization can lead to more seasonal variability of streamflow (from ?27.5% to 12.5%) and water quality, including sediment (from ?36.5% to 49.3%), nitrogen (from ?24% to 124.2%), and phosphorus (from ?13.3% to 21.2%) during summer and early fall over the next several decades.     

新中国70年生态环境建设发展的艰难历程与辉煌成就

中国的生态环境建设,经历了新中国建立之初生产力低下的农耕文明、改革开放后的工业文明、迈向生态文明的三大阶段,每个阶段都有自身的特质、挑战、应对和成效。从1949年到改革开放前,中国整体上表现为农耕文明特征,自然灾害频发、粮食生产短缺、城市化水平低下。为了跳出"马尔萨斯陷阱",新中国的缔造者带领人民治理水患,兴修水利,拓荒垦殖,问题得到缓解但没有得到解决,贫困落后依然,没能彻底摆脱"马尔萨斯魔咒"。改革开放后,工业化快速推进,城市化加速发展,使农民得以从土地中解放出来,极大地提升了劳动生产力;同时也使土地得以从农民手中部分释放出来,不仅大幅提升了土地资源价值,也使土地得以休养生息自我生态修复。虽然快速的工业化、城市化进程大幅提升了生产力、积累了巨量的物质财富,但是进入21世纪以来,中国的发展逼近工业文明的生态红线、环境底线和资源上线,可持续发展挑战不断凸显。2010年后,中国全面启动生态保护、污染控制和资源节约的转型发展进程,高质量、大力度建设生态文明,推进人与自然的和谐 发展。     

宜兴市土地利用类型与水生态健康相关性研究

利用宜兴市2012年-2014年土地利用数据、水生态健康等相关数据,引用土地利用动态度和土地利用综合程度指数,对土地利用变化和水生态健康现状进行分析,运用相关性分析法测算土地利用类型比例与水生态健康主要指标的相关性.结果表明:耕地、建设用地比例与水生态健康综合指标负相关,湿地、草地、园地、林地用地比例与水生态健康综合指标正相关;建设用地比例与底栖动物负相关;湿地用地比例与营养、底栖动物指标正相关较强.     

煤矸石堆场Fe、Mn迁移累积效应研究

通过对贵州织金典型煤矿区矸石堆场周边地表水体及耕地进行调查与采样分析,探讨了煤矸石堆场Fe、Mn元素迁移对周边地表水体及耕地累积效应的影响。研究结果表明:受煤矸石堆场酸性排水的影响,煤矸石堆场周边溪沟水Fe、Mn含量分别达0.81~32.14mg/L、1.17~8.42mg/L,超过"集中式生活饮用水地表水源地标准"限值的3~107、12~84倍。堆场周边旱作土中Fe、Mn含量分别达63 530~85 990mg/kg、243.1~910.1mg/kg,水稻土达46 940~75 810mg/kg、144.5~409.1mg/kg,Fe、Mn累积指数旱作土分别达1.61、2.97,水稻土分别达1.24、1.33。随着与堆场距离的增大,水稻土Fe、Mn含量逐步降低,在500m范围内Fe降低了35%,Mn降低了61%,而旱作土变化规律不明显。     

土壤碳淋溶流失研究进展

土壤碳的淋溶流失是指在水的作用下土壤中的碳沿着水文路径转移到水环境的过程。尽管这些流失量有限,却对陆地碳平衡核算具有重要影响。本文在总结了土壤碳淋溶流失研究的重要性、近年来相关领域取得的进展的基础上,指出已有研究的不足有:对土壤无机碳(SIC)的淋溶流失研究薄弱、缺乏野外实地观测、对土地利用变化影响土壤碳淋溶流失的过程与机制认识不足等。今后除了加强以上几个方面的研究外,还要综合利用同位素示踪和在线仪器观测等各种手段,开展"陆地-水生系统连续体"内多界面碳交换的综合研究。