Tropical deforestation in a future international climate policy regime—lessons from the Brazilian Amazon

The possibility of adopting national targets for carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from tropical deforestation in a future international climate treaty has received increasing attention recently. This attention has been prompted by proposals to this end and more intensified talks on possible commitments for developing countries beyond the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol. We analyze four main scientific and political challenges associated with national targets for emissions from tropical deforestation: (1) reducing the uncertainties in emission inventories, (2) preserving the environmental integrity of the treaty, (3) promoting political acceptance and participation in the regime, and (4) providing economic incentives for reduced deforestation. We draw the following conclusions. (1) Although there are large uncertainties in carbon flux from deforestation, these are in the same range as for other emissions included in the current Kyoto protocol (i.e., non-CO₂ GHGs), and they can be reduced. However, for forest degradation processes the uncertainties are larger. A large challenge lies in building competence and institutions for monitoring the full spectrum of land use changes in developing countries. (2 and 3) Setting targets for deforestation is difficult, and uncertainties in future emissions imply a risk of creating ‘tropical hot air’. However, there are proposals that may sufficiently deal with this, and these proposals may also have the advantage of making the targets more attractive, politically speaking. Moreover, we conclude that while a full carbon accounting system will likely be politically unacceptable for tropical countries, the current carbon accounting system should be broadened to include forest degradation in order to safeguard environmental integrity. (4) Doubts can be cast over the possible effect a climate regime alone will have on deforestation rates, though little thorough analysis of this issue has been made.

浅析电子废弃物回收利用及危害解决办法

随着高科技的发展和人们需求的增长,电子产品不断推陈出新,电子废弃物成为世界上数量增长最快的垃圾."电子垃圾",主要包括各种使用后废弃的电脑、通信设备、电视机、电冰箱、洗衣机等电子电器产品.电子废弃物不规范回收处理易造成污染.电子废弃物中含有很多可回收再利用的有色金属、黑色金属、玻璃等物质.严格意义上讲,这些电子废弃物,不应称其为电子垃圾,而应称作电子旧货.伴随着电子工业的高速发展,电子废弃物污染不可避免地摆在了我们面前.电子废弃物具有危害性和可利用性.     

Impact analysis of drought, water excess and salinity on grass production in The Netherlands using historical and future climate data

The coupled SWAP-WOFOST model was used to study the effects of increasing salinity of groundwater, drought and water excess on grass production in The Netherlands. WOFOST simulates crop growth and SWAP simulates transport of water, solutes and heat in the vadose zone. The model was tested using several datasets from field experiments. We applied the models at regional scale where we quantified the impact of various groundwater salinity levels on grass growth and production using historical weather data (1971-2000). The salt concentrations in the subsoil were derived from the National Hydrological Instrument. The results show that salinity effects on grass production are limited. In wet years the excess rainfall will infiltrate the soil and reduce salt water seepage. In a next step we used future weather data for the year 2050, derived from 3 Global Circulation Models. From each model we used data from two CO₂ emission scenarios. As expected higher temperatures increased drought stress, however, the production reduction as a result of salt water in the root zone is limited. Salt stress mainly occurred when irrigation was applied with saline water. The increased CO₂ concentration in combination with the limited drought stress resulted in increasing simulated actual and potential yields. Overall conclusion for grassland in The Netherlands: drought stress is stronger than stress caused by water excess which on its turn is stronger than salinity stress. Future water demand for irrigation may increase by 11-19% and result in water scarcity if water supply is insufficient.     

The evolution of climate policies - the role of learning and evaluations

All member states of the EU have had to develop climate strategies following the commitment to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. The evolution of the strategies provides insights into the learning that takes place at the level of policy development and offers material for analysing how ex ante and ex post evaluations have contributed to this learning. In the analysis, Finland is used as a case demonstrating different levels and types of learning, from deeper reframing to political learning. The results show that the full potential of the evaluations has not been utilised, partly because they have been constrained by their mandate. Greater openness and transparency in the policy processes would create favourable conditions for independent evaluations that could provide additional input to the policy processes. This would support social and reflexive learning and allow for greater adaptability.     

自然保护区生态补偿定量方案研究——基于“虚拟地”计算方法

自然保护区生态补偿的“补给谁”和“补多少”在理论和实践上都是生态补偿中的重点和难点所在。传统的通过计量保护区正外部性以确定生态补偿数量的方法存在两个主要问题：一是违背经济学原理,二是与管理体制不符且法理不足。据此,并考虑到中国相当数量的保护区“没有保护好”的主要因素是保护区社区居民生产生活的干扰,论文认为应通过控制保护区社区的负外部性来达成对保护区的生态补偿。通过生产函数理论分析,发现通常情况下保护区社区的经济产出与土地面积单调正相关,因此在没有生态补偿的情况下,保护区的划建会使周边社区居民经济收入减少,解决周边社区对保护区干扰的根本途径是利用生态补偿资金发展替代产业以提高单位面积土地的经济产出。以此认识为基础,文章提出了“虚拟地”概念并发展了定量方法来确定保护区的生态补偿最低标准,采用武夷山保护区的数据进行了这一方法的案例分析。     

基于ARDL方法分析福建省资源利用与经济增长关系

运用物质流分析方法以及最新发展的自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL),对福建省1990~2008年资源利用和实际GDP二者关系进行检验和分析.采用了物质流分析指标中直接物质投入来表征区域资源利用量.ARDL边界检验结果表明,资源利用和经济增长间存在稳定的长期均衡关系.进一步通过ARDL模型揭示了区域经济增长对资源利用长期弹性系数,其值约为0.73,通过误差修正模型揭示了短期弹性系数,表明了经济增长到资源利用的长期格兰杰因果关系.对福建省经济增长和资源保护战略提出了政策建议.这一研究思路和方法具有普适性,可以适用于其他地区关于资源利用和经济增长的问题的讨论和研究.     

1957-2007年新疆天山山区气候变化对径流的影响

利用天山山区1957-2007年的气温、降水量及径流数据,借助非参数检验、小波变换等方法分析了天山山区气温、降水量及年径流量的变化趋势及多时间尺度相关。结果表明:玛纳斯河与塔里木河源流区年径流量、气温与降水量均呈显著增加趋势;在年代际上,塔里木河源流区气温存在11、18和22 a的主周期,降水量存在10、20与22 a的主周期;玛纳斯河气温在10与22 a处存在明显周期,降水量在20与22 a处周期性明显;同时,两源流区气温和降水量皆存在3~6 a的年际周期变化;塔里木河年径流量、气温和降水量的突变点分别发生在1993、1993和1992年,而玛纳斯河分别在1995、1988与1996年发生显著性突变;两流域源流区年径流量与气候因子存在显著的多时间尺度相关关系。     

我国当前城乡建设用地置换的实践探索及问题剖析

当前我国城乡建设用地利用存在着城市建设用地指标紧缺、农村建设用地低效利用和城乡建设用地"双增"大量侵占耕地等问题。城乡建设用地增减挂钩政策推动下的城乡建设用地置换有望成为破解该问题的综合途径。2004年开始,伴随相关政策陆续出台,城乡建设用地置换实践在多个省市试点推进,其中江苏省万顷良田建设工程、天津市宅基地换房、山东省农村社区化、重庆市地票交易市场的实践较为典型。基于上述典型案例和系统要素分析,总结了实践的问题、根源与演进,认为目前系统中的要素与相应的操作环节中存在问题隐患且部分问题表现突出;实践中主要以涉及"非自愿"置换、补偿与保障不足、生产生活方式改变等的农民利益受损问题较为突出;问题的根源集中在三个方面,即国家层面的约束性的法律、法规、政策尚不健全,地方政府操作不合理和缺乏科学研究支撑。今后的实践中,应该建立统一的城乡土地市场并逐步完善政府主导下的城乡土地市场运行机制,建立科学合理的征地补偿机制,深入开展相关科学研究,遵循集约型用地增长模式,同小城镇建设紧密结合,注重保护村落景观风貌。     

国内外土地利用区划研究的回顾与展望

土地利用区划是从区域角度观察和研究地域综合体,探讨土地利用的发展历史、现状特点、变化过程及趋势,从最大限度发挥土地生产潜力及改善土地生态系统的结构与功能出发,对土地的合理利用方向,包括确定国民经济各部门用地的合理分配、结构和布局形式等,在地域上进行分区。通过简要回顾国内外土地利用区划研究的发展历程,总结了土地利用区划研究的理论方法特点及存在的问题,并在此基础上探讨今后土地利用区划研究的重点及发展方向：从自然要素向自然与人文要素有机结合方向转变;从大空间尺度向多空间尺度方向转变;从传统的区划方法向综合集成的新技术手段转变;从静态的区划研究向多要素、多过程耦合的动态区划研究方向转变。