气候变化对莱州湾地区水资源脆弱性的影响

论文首先分析了在现状年(1993年)供水能力和需水条件下,1960～1993年的气候波动对莱州湾地区水资源供需平衡和脆弱性的影响。然后根据未来气候情景分析了在2000规划年和2020规划年供水能力和需水要求下,未来气候变化(2000～2042年)对水资源供需平衡及脆弱性的影响。在农业需水保证率50%时,2000～2019年水资源供需基本平衡,但2020～2042年水资源短缺20～57亿m³。若考虑未来气温的上升,则水资源短缺进一步加大。因此,2020年以后需在调入56亿m³客水资源基础上,从区外调入更多稳定的水量以保证该地区社会经济的可持续发展。     

采煤塌陷地复垦的环境经济分析——以开滦煤矿为例

将环境经济学引入复垦活动的分析和评价，着重考虑了复垦的生态社会效益，复垦土地资源的价值、市场价格变化对复垦经济收益的影响和复垦效益对时间的依赖性，以期为复垦项目的选择和相关政策的制定提供经济方面的依赖和指导。     

不同土地利用类型下土壤特性及重金属评价

在哈尔滨市周家镇选择典型的五种土地利用类型(耕地、居民点及工矿用地、交通用地、林地、水域),24个样品,研究乡级小城镇不同土地利用类型下土壤特性及重金属状况.结果显示:(1)耕地的土壤理化性状最低,有机质与全氮有显著的正相关;(2)乡级小城镇不同土地利用类型下土壤中Zn、Pb含量存在显著差异,交通用地与耕地含量较高,同时各土地利用类型的内梅罗综合污染指数均达到中污染;(3)人类活动对土壤质量影响最大的是交通活动,其次是耕地施肥、使用农药及翻耕等,在次是居民生活.     

江苏省耕地面积变化与经济增长的协整性与因果关系分析

江苏省近年来随着社会经济的发展,耕地面积急剧减少,土地利用变化和经济增长二者关系更为明显和完整,具有极好的典型性和代表性。论文利用近20年来耕地面积、经济增长与城市化水平之间的长序列统计资料,对江苏省1981～2004年间的耕地面积与经济增长及城市化水平的协整性和因果关系进行了研究。研究表明:耕地面积、GDP与城市化水平均是不平稳的时间序列,直接对其进行回归分析是不严谨的;江苏省耕地面积变化与经济增长之间不具有长期的协整性;江苏省耕地面积与GDP、城市化水平之间只存在单向的因果关系。通过研究,认为目前的土地利用方式极不合理。因此,降低耕地减少速度,提高土地利用效率是非常紧迫的战略问题。     

CDM Forestry and the Ultimate Objective of the Climate Convention

In its Article 2, the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change policymakers gave themselves a long-term dynamic mandate under uncertainty. Taking the example of forestry activities in developing countries, the present article discusses whether land-based climate change mitigation measures in the context of compensation mechanisms for human-induced greenhouse gas emissions are covered under the UNFCCC's ultimate objective. Both the problem of climate change and human intervention act over long, yet finite timeframes. The article argues for taking a dynamic 100-year timeframe as reference for present-day activities. It concludes that increasing biotic carbon storage is legitimate for measures that contribute to biodiversity conservation, as long as it does not serve as a pretext for neglecting technological change. Among all forestry options, the list of priorities should be avoiding deforestation and devegetation, sustainable forest management, and afforestation. The problem of saturation can be encountered by the combination of forestry with the increased use of wood products and bioenergy. Concluding, the article gathers criteria for forest climate activities in the post-2012 regime. JEL Classification: Q23, Q54; Q57; Q58     

Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects

Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C) emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State, Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico. A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines. In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable) in explaining empirical land-use patterns. We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond 10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed. This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection.     

Accounting for time in Mitigating Global Warming through land-use change and forestry

Many proposed activities formitigating global warming in the land-use change and forestry(LUCF) sector differ from measures to avoid fossilfuel emissions because carbon (C) may be held out ofthe atmosphere only temporarily. In addition, thetiming of the effects is usually different. Many LUCFactivities alter C fluxes to and from the atmosphereseveral decades into the future, whereas fossil fuelemissions avoidance has immediate effects. Non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are animportant part of emissions from deforestation inlow-latitude regions, also pose complications forcomparisons between fossil fuel and LUCF, since themechanism generally used to compare these gases(global warming potentials) assumes simultaneousemissions. A common numeraire is needed to expressglobal warming mitigation benefits of different kindsof projects, such as fossil fuel emissions reduction,C sequestration in forest plantations, avoideddeforestation by creating protected areas and throughpolicy changes to slow rates of land-use changes suchas clearing. Megagram (Mg)-year (also known as`ton-year') accounting provides a mechanism forexpressing the benefits of activities such as these ona consistent basis. One can calculate the atmosphericload of each GHG that will be present in each year,expressed as C in the form of CO₂ and itsinstantaneous impact equivalent contributed by othergases. The atmospheric load of CO₂-equivalent Cpresent over a time horizon is a possible indicator ofthe climatic impact of the emission that placed thisload in the atmosphere. Conversely, this index alsoprovides a measure of the benefit of notproducing the emission. One accounting methodcompares sequestered CO₂ in trees with theCO₂ that would be in the atmosphere had thesequestration project not been undertaken, whileanother method (used in this paper) compares theatmospheric load of C (or equivalent in non-CO₂GHGs) in both project and no-project scenarios.Time preference, expressed by means of a discount rateon C, can be applied to Mg-year equivalencecalculations to allow societal decisions regarding thevalue of time to be integrated into the system forcalculating global warming impacts and benefits. Giving a high value to time, either by raising thediscount rate or by shortening the time horizon,increases the value attributed to temporarysequestration (such as many forest plantationprojects). A high value for time also favorsmitigation measures that have rapid effects (such asslowing deforestation rates) as compared to measuresthat only affect emissions years in the future (suchas creating protected areas in countries with largeareas of remaining forest). Decisions on temporalissues will guide mitigation efforts towards optionsthat may or may not be desirable on the basis ofsocial and environmental effects in spheres other thanglobal warming. How sustainable development criteriaare incorporated into the approval and creditingsystems for activities under the Kyoto Protocol willdetermine the overall environmental and social impactsof pending decisions on temporal issues.     

对排海污染物实行“纳污区”管理探讨

我国近海是经济增长和发展最重要和最集中的区域。然而,随着沿海工业的发展,大量未经处理的陆源污染物随间排海,沿岸水域形成“黑潮”、“赤潮”致使我国近海海域污染加剧,生态平衡失调,严重影响了海域资源环境的可持续发展。     

海南三亚近岸海域水化学要素的分布特征和变化规律

本文调查研究了海南三亚近岸海域水化学要素的浓度和分布，结果表明：（１）表层ＤＯ、ＮＯ－２、ＮＯ－３、ＮＨ＋４、ＰＯ３－４和ＣＯＤ的平均浓度分别为４１１．９、０．０５、０．４７、１．７９、０．１６μｍｏｌ／ｄｍ３和１．３１ｍｇ／Ｌ。（２）河流输入对沿岸海域水化学要素的影响主要集中于ＮＨ＋４和ＣＯＤ，对ＰＯ３－４和ＮＯ－３的浓度影响不明显，海域总体为一贫营养盐区域。采用主成分分析表明控制水化学要素的主要因子是河流的输入和由此导致了的生物旺发。     

西安地区土壤CO2 释放量和释放规律

根据碱溶液吸收法,对西安地区不同植被条件下土壤CO2释放量进行了昼夜观测,观测资料显示,西安地区各月份土壤CO2释放量在一昼夜内具有明显的变化,从当日上午到次日上午,CO2释放量表现出由低变高再变低的规律,土壤CO2释放量变化与温度变化具有相同的特征,但释放量的变化具有滞后性,相对于温度的变化滞后4－6h左右,温度是决定土壤CO2释放量昼夜变化规律的主要因素,它的升高和降低分别造成了土壤CO2和放量的增加和减少,不同植被条件下,土壤CO2释放量不同,林地释放量大于草地,草地释放量大于裸地,夜间12h释放量大于白天12h释放量。