三峡库区腹地规模农地空间分布规律

山区农业转型对于我国山区耕地可持续利用效率、土地整治方向以及生态建设方向具有一定的指导意义,渝东北生态涵养发展区是重庆市农用地整治项目的主要分区,通过定义作为农业转型产物的"规模农地"相关概念及其判读标准,旨在提出一种新的研究路径对重庆市典型山区地貌的耕地利用现状给予指导和改善意见。首先选取三峡库区腹地5个区县为研究区,并结合研究区实际对"规模农地"进行等级划分,利用Arc GIS10.2等软件通过景观格局指数、核密度测算、空间自相关等方法从斑块特征、数量分布、空间格局三方面对研究区内规模农地的空间分布规律进行探讨。研究表明:(1)不同类型规模农地斑块特征呈现一定的规律性,小规模农地斑块密度最大为6.004,大规模农地平均最近指数MNN值最低为643.401,且农地规模越大,面积加权平均斑块分维数AWMPFD值和聚集度AI值越高;(2)中、大规模农地数量多集中在奉节县,微、小规模则多集中在巫山县,且规模农地自身及其相互之间存在固定的邻接性规律,即同类斑块之间的邻接性与其斑块大小成反比,不同类型斑块之间则与之相反;(3)研究区规模农地整体空间分布主要集中在奉节县中部以及巫溪县东部,沿江流域的平坝地区分布相对密集,且不同类型规模农地在空间上存在明显的自相关性。     

关天经济区农户农地流转行为研究

农地流转是现阶段实现农地规模经营的必经之路。本文基于关天经济区622份调查问卷,建立了农地流转的农户模型,利用Heckman两阶段模型研究了交易成本认知和农户禀赋对农户参与农地流转(转出)、农地流转率的影响。研究结果表明:(1)关天经济区农户参与农地流转的积极性不高,样本农户参与农地流转的仅为23%,农地流转率均值为11%;(2)流转价格了解程度、农地流转组织形式、农地流转合约期限和对外交通便利情况影响农户是否参与农地流转决策,而农地流转率仅受流转价格了解程度和农地流转契约形式影响;(3)劳动力和土地禀赋正向影响农户转出土地,农地流转率随农业生产能力增强而降低;(4)文化程度与农户是否参与农地流转、农地流转率呈现显著的负相关关系,与天水的农户相比,关中地区的农户更倾向于参与农地流转。因此,要促进农户参与农地流转、提升农地流转率,首先要加强农地流转政策的宣传力度,提高农户整体认知水平,增强农户农地流转政策的理解程度和接受能力;其次,深化农村土地产权改革,加快农地确权颁证,提升农户产权的稳定性和可预期性;再次,建立健全农地流转市场,完善市场在农地流转过程中的信号生成机制和传递功能,降低农地流转过程中的交易成本;第四,采取相应的激励政策提高农户土地、劳动力的利用程度,提升农户农业生产能力,避免农户在农地流转市场中的逆向选择行为;最后,建立有效的农地"经营权退出机制",将束缚在农业生产上的低效劳动力和土地释放出来,实现资源的最优化配置。     

基于内容分析法的土地利用总体规划目标偏好研究

土地利用总体规划需要统筹区域发展多元目标以增强对区域发展的指导力和约束性,因此全面了解我国土地利用总体规划的政策目标偏好,能为优化规划技术方法和改革规划管理体制提供政策参考。鉴于此,本文在分析我国土地利用总体规划多元目标及其关系的基础上,采用内容分析法基于全国土地利用总体规划纲要进行词频挖掘构建目标偏好测量维度及体系,进而对两轮省级土地利用总体规划文本进行目标偏好的定量测度,结果表明:(1)土地利用总体规划是多目标规划,通过内容分析法可以构建由经济、社会、生态三大目标构成的目标偏好测量体系;(2)从目标偏好排序来看,三大目标中社会目标始终是两轮土地利用总体规划的首要偏好目标,生态目标是土地利用总体规划的次要偏好目标,经济目标排在最后;同时相比上轮规划,本轮规划耕地保护子目标次序提前,土地整治子目标次序推后;(3)从目标偏好程度来看,社会目标的首位偏好程度有所下降,但其中耕地保护子目标的首位偏好度明显上升;生态目标和经济目标的首位偏好程度基本不变,总体而言本轮规划三大目标偏好程度的差异缩小。研究结果说明,我国土地利用总体规划始终坚持以耕地保护为核心的社会目标偏好,符合其是国土资源管理部门主导的部门规划的定位;虽然土地利用总体规划对经济、社会、生态三大目标的偏好程度差异缩小,但其若要在空间规划体系中发挥更大的作用,还需要通过优化规划技术和改革规划管理体制进一步均衡经济、社会、生态目标,以承担起统领全区域空间发展的要求。     

长三角快速城市化地区土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响——以嘉兴市为例

基于浙江省嘉兴市1979~2012年的土地利用数据,评估了各种土地利用类型的生态系统服务价值,分析了30多年来嘉兴市土地生态系统服务价值的动态变化及其对土地利用变化和景观格局变化的响应。结果表明:(1)1979~2012年,嘉兴市建设用地面积变化最大,增加了136.6%,相应的耕地面积减少了15.5%。(2)1979~2012年,嘉兴市景观破碎度指数从0.6531上升到0.8762,随着城市化进程的加剧,耕地景观破碎度指数不断增加、聚集度指数减小。(3)1979~2012年,嘉兴市的总生态系统服务价值减少了14.7%,2000~2012年嘉兴市总的生态系统服务价值减少尤为显著,生态系统各单项服务价值整体也呈现下降趋势,耕地为嘉兴市提供的生态系统服务占嘉兴市总生态系统服务的70%以上。(4)运用相关分析方法对嘉兴市土地利用类型和景观格局对土地生态系统服务价值的影响分析表明,耕地和水域与生态服务价值呈正相关,而建设用地和未利用地与生态服务价值呈负相关;景观多样性指数(SHDI)和耕地破碎度指数与生态系统服务总价值呈显著负相关关系。     

基于改进粒子群算法和元胞自动机的城市扩张模拟——以南京为例

为合理利用多智能体算法解决城市扩张动态模拟问题,基于地理学理论和社会学规律对粒子群算法进行有针对性的改进,提出分段式粒子群算法(SPSO),并结合元胞自动机模拟复杂时空过程的能力,构建出适用于城市扩张模拟的地理元胞自动机SPSO-CA。在SPSO-CA中我们利用多时像的土地利用数据、交通路网数据和地形数据,挖掘出1995~2000年南京城市扩张的土地转换规则。再由此规则实现1995~2008年的南京市城市扩张过程的动态模拟。最后对比SPSO-CA、PSOCA及NULL模型结果得:SPSO-CA总精度86.3%,Kappa系数为0.792,Moran’s I为0.078,PSO-CA总精度83.6%,Kappa系数为0.755,Moran’s I为0.054,NULL模型总精度81.9%,Kappa系数为0.741,真实的Moran’s I为0.072。这表明无论是总精度还是空间一致性,SPSO-CA都优于PSO-CA和NULL模型,即用SPSO-CA模拟城市扩张是可行的。     

Relationship between cultivated land use functions and land rental behavior of rural households: empirical evidence from different dominant functional regions in central China

This paper analyzes the relationship between the cultivated land use functions and the land rental decisions of rural households in three Dominant Functional Zones of Hubei, China. The results indicate that 41.10% of the rural households in the study areas participated in the land rental market. The land rental market in the Key Development Zone has both a higher participation rate and land rent; the Agricultural Production Zone has a higher participation rate but a lower land rent; and the land rental market in the Key Ecological Zone is underdeveloped. The difference in regional function and economic level leads to a significant difference in the spatial variation of the cultivated land use multifunction. Overall, the cultivated land function of rural households has a significant impact on their land transfer behavior. The higher the Functions of Economic Contribution, Food Production, and Pension & Employment, the more willing the rural households are to rent in the land, while the higher the Function of Inheritance and Retainment of the cultivated land use, the more likely the peasants are to retain their cultivated land resources. Furthermore, the correlation coefficient is significantly higher in the Key Development Zone than in the Key Ecological Zone.     

三峡库区腹地草堂溪小流域土地功能格局变化

探讨三峡库区腹地土地功能格局动态特征是促进库区土地功能优化、土地利用可持续发展的重要途径之一。以草堂溪小流域为研究区,基于1990~2015年4期遥感影像和1∶5万DEM数据,借助ArcGIS 10.2与Fragstats 4.2软件,依据土地提供主要服务的差异性将土地功能划分为3个大类5个亚类,并分析研究区土地功能格局时空演变特征。结果表明:近25 a,研究区生态功能用地占绝对优势,面积增长1 541.96 hm~2,生产功能用地面积缩减1 844.19 hm~2,生活功能用地面积扩展302.24 hm~2;生物质生产功能用地和人工/天然生态功能用地间的转移关系是研究区土地功能转移网络的关键关系,决定着研究区土地功能变化特征;土地功能变化空间集聚特征时空差异性显著,生物质生产功能用地和人工/天然生态功能用地附近为土地功能变化热点区域,1990~2015年土地功能变化热点区向研究区西部推移;生物质生产功能用地、交通功能用地和住宅功能用地优势区间为中低地形位,中高地形位是非生物生产功能用地优势区间,人工/天然生态功能用地在高地形位占优势;较低地形位上景观异质性高、形状复杂,较高地形位上景观类型单一、聚集程度高。     

基于加权叠加模型的高原湖泊流域重要生态用地识别——以星云湖流域为例

生态用地在维持区域生态平衡和保障区域生态安全具有重要意义。以云南星云湖流域为研究区,运用层次分析法和GIS技术,从水土保持、地质灾害规避与防护、生物多样性保护和水资源安全4个方面,构建了流域重要生态用地识别指标及其识别方法,并识别出流域重要生态用地空间分布。结果表明:(1)加权叠加模型更适用于高原湖泊流域重要生态用地识别;(2)根据生态用地重要性分为核心型、辅助型、过渡型和非重要生态用地,面积分别为75.98 km~2、105.05 km~2、89.47 km~2和65.11 km~2,分别占流域生态用地总面积的22.64%、31.30%、26.66%和19.40%。识别结果能较好地反映重要生态用地维护流域的生态安全。以星云湖流域作为高原湖泊流域的典型,为高原湖泊生态保护提供科学方向,以期协调流域经济发展与生态保护的矛盾,促进可持续发展。     

Accounting for monogastric livestock as a driver in global land use and cover change assessments

Land systems are described based on various characteristics, including land cover composition and agricultural production. However, it is uncertain to what extent livestock, particularly monogastric livestock, determines land systems. We included monogastrics in a land system classification, and statistically analyzed the land cover composition and agricultural production of otherwise similar land systems with and without monogastric livestock. The results indicate that land systems with monogastrics are statistically different from their counterparts in the classification without monogastrics in terms of grassland area and crop yields, but are less different in terms of tree area, crop area, and ruminant livestock production. We then used a land systems map that includes monogastrics in the classification and a similar map that does not include monogastrics to project future changes in a novel manner that integrates livestock as a determinant of land systems. The results show that including monogastrics in otherwise similar projections yields less cropland intensification and more cropland expansion in several world regions, including Northern Africa and the Middle East. Other regions, such as Europe and Australia, were characterized by less decrease or more increase in tree area in the application with monogastrics, mainly due to the occurrence of open forests with monogastrics. This study prompts a call for improved characterization of land systems for land use and cover change (LUCC) assessments in order to better represent LUCC driven by monogastric livestock.     

How dynamics and drivers of land use/land cover change impact elephant conservation and agricultural livelihood development in Rombo,Tanzania

Land use/land cover (LULC) change affects the provision of ecosystem services for humans and habitat for wildlife. Hence, it is crucial to monitor LULC particularly adjacent to protected areas. In this study, we measured LULC change in Rombo, Tanzania, an area with high-potential agro-ecological zones that is dominated by human–elephant conflicts (HECs). We used remote sensing and geographical information system techniques, questionnaires and village meetings to assess spatio-temporal patterns of the LULC changes in the study area. Using Landsat imagery, digital elevation model (DEM) and ground truthing, we classified and monitored changes in LULC from the years 1987 to 2015. We found that within Rombo, settlements were increasing, while agricultural and agroforestry lands were decreasing and respondents’ perceptions varied along the altitudinal gradient. Patterns of HEC and LULC were observed to change along the gradient and the later threatened the agricultural land and ecological integrity for elephant habitat, leading to high tension and competition between elephants and people. This research offers baseline information for land use planning to balance wildlife conservation with livelihood development in Rombo and highlights that managing the impacts of LULC changes on HEC and elephant habitat loss is a matter of urgency.