Lakes,Wetlands, and Streams as Predictors of Land Use/Cover Distribution

The importance of the surrounding landscape to aquatic ecosystems has been well established. Most research linking aquatic ecosystems to landscapes has focused on the one-way effect of land on water. However, to understand fully the complex interactions between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, aquatic ecosystems must be seen not only as receptors of human modification of the landscape, but also as potential drivers of these modifications. We hypothesized that the presence of aquatic ecosystems influences the spatial distribution of human land use/cover of the nearby landscape (≤1 km) and that this influence has changed through time from the 1930s to the 1990s. To test this hypothesis, we compared the distribution of residential, agricultural, and forested land use/cover around aquatic ecosystems (lakes, wetlands, and streams) to the overall regional land use/cover proportion in an area in southeast Michigan, USA; we also compared the distribution of land use/cover around county roads/highway and towns (known determinants of many land use/cover patterns) to the regional proportion. We found that lakes, wetlands, and streams were strongly associated with the distribution of land use/cover, that each ecosystem type showed different patterns, and that the magnitude of the association was at least as strong as the association with human features. We also found that the area closest to aquatic ecosystems (<500 m) was more strongly associated with land use/cover distribution than areas further away. Finally, we found that the strength of the association between aquatic ecosystems and land use/cover increased from 1938 to 1995, although the overall patterns were similar through time. Our results show that a more complete understanding is needed of the role of aquatic ecosystems on the distribution of land use/cover.     

Influence of Geoengineered Climate on the Terrestrial Biosphere

Various geoengineering schemes have been proposed to counteract anthropogenically induced climate change. In a previous study, it was suggested that a 1.8% reduction in solar radiation incident on the Earths surface could noticeably reduce regional and seasonal climate change from increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂). However, the response of the terrestrial biosphere to reduced solar radiation in a CO₂-rich climate was not investigated. In this study, we hypothesized that a reduction in incident solar radiation in a Doubled CO₂ atmosphere will diminish the net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystems, potentially accelerating the accumulation of CO₂ in the atmosphere. We used a dynamic global ecosystem model, the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), to investigate this hypothesis in an unperturbed climatology. While this simplified modeling framework effectively separated the influence of CO₂ and sunlight on the terrestrial biosphere, it did not consider the complex feedbacks within the Earths climate system. Our analysis indicated that compared to a Doubled CO₂ scenario, reduction in incident solar radiation by 1.8% in a double CO₂ world will have negligible impact on the NPP of terrestrial ecosystems. There were, however, spatial variations in the response of NPP-engineered solar radiation. While productivity decreased by less than 2% in the tropical and boreal forests as hypothesized, it increased by a similar percentage in the temperate deciduous forests and grasslands. This increase in productivity was attributed to a 1% reduction in evapotranspiration in the Geoengineered scenario relative to the Doubled CO₂ scenario. Our initial hypothesis was rejected because of unanticipated effects of engineered solar radiation on the hydrologic cycle. However, any geoengineering approaches that reduce incident solar radiation need to be thoroughly analyzed in view of the implications on ecosystem productivity and the hydrologic cycle.     

我国黄土高原地区农业生产的气候脆弱性变化预测

在生态脆弱的黄土高原地区,农业生产受到气候变化的影响波动很大。本文在介绍脆弱性的有关定义和农业生产的气候脆弱性评估方案的基础上,对1997年的脆弱性状况做了初步评估,并利用有关GCM预测结果,估算了有关灾害指标的可能变化,对未来黄土高原地区农业生产的气候脆弱性可能变化进行了预测,其评估方法和预测结果可为有关部门决策提供一定的科学依据。     

Detection of Coastal Saline Land Uses with Multi-Temporal Landsat Images in Shangyu City,China

Many coastal regions in China are confronted with pressing problems of scarce land resources and heavy population. Over the past 30 years, considerable parts of coastal tidelands have been enclosed and reclaimed for agricultural land uses. To assess, plan, and implement large-scale reclamation programs, up-to-date and reliable information concerning the nature, areal extent, and physical and chemical characteristics of coastal saline lands is essential. This paper reports a remote sensing approach to detecting coastal saline land uses in Shangyu City, China, by using multi-temporal Landsat images. First, with the aid of resolution-sharpened Landsat-7 ETM+ images and their enhanced linear features, a visual interpretation is applied to extract individual dikes. Based on time series images and local government records, a spatial zoning procedure is then used to define six sub-zones with different historical years of reclamation. It shows that a total of 15,668 ha of coastal saline lands were enclosed and reclaimed from 1969 to 1996. Second, a modified land-use classification system for the study area is prescribed, and both unsupervised and supervised classifiers are performed for land-use classifications of grouped sub-zones. Information obtained from the spatial zoning, Tasseled Cap transformation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, is also utilized to facilitate the supervised classification process. Finally, a detailed land-use map is produced, with an overall classification accuracy of 77.8%. Results show that dominant agricultural land uses of sub-zones are changed with historical reclamation years, from saline lands with wildgrass (very recently reclaimed) to aqua-farm ponds, to cotton fields, and to paddy fields and orchards (very early reclaimed). This transform process is primarily affected by soil salinities, and according to a soil survey an electrical conductivity of saturation extract decreased from 7.3 ds/m in the saline land reclaimed in 1996 to below 2 ds/m in the land reclaimed before 1969. The study concludes that multi-temporal remotely sensed images are important and effective data sources for monitoring the rapid changes of coastal land uses.     

皖07井水位与地震关系初探

从分析皖０７井水位的映震能力入手,探讨地下水与地震的关系。文中着重对１９９６年１１月９日南黄海６１级等４次中强地震前该井水位的异常特征进行分析,并对该井水位映震的机理提出一些粗浅的看法。     

Coastal flooding, global warming and environmental management

A review of the difficulties associated with the definition of coastal flood frequencies and magnitudes leads to a recognition that there is considerable doubt in many parts of the world as to the precise nature of this particular hazard. Similarly, a review of the sea-level measurements that have been used to indicate a response to global warming shows that there is uncertainty about the amount of other controlling influences. What is clear, however, are that past management decisions about human endeavours in the coastal zone (including flood defences, occupance of flood-prone lands, extraction of ground water and natural gas) have had an impact on relative land and sea levels and have done more to increase the risk of coastal flooding than can be assigned so far to global warming. In addition, these changes induced by human activity may render inappropriate calculations of coastal-flood frequencies based on historical records since the latter relate to a period of time when the controls on flooding may have been very different.     

Sources of Deforestation in Tropical Developing Countries

/ Key causes of tropical deforestation are investigated using cross-sectional data for 90 developing countries for the period 1981-1990. Regression results reveal that deforestation is associated with both development and scarcity. Deforestation accelerates with expanding infrastructure, trade, debt, investment in the human capital base, and resource-based economic expansion. On the other hand, absolute and relative scarcities-manifested by growing population pressures, food and land shortages, fuelwood dependency, and inequalities in access to land-are also key factors explaining forest loss. Thus, results point to a fundamental environmental conundrum: Development is required if countries are to alleviate scarcity-driven forms of forest exploitation but is itself a major cause of deforestation. Can countries balance development goals with forest protection? Setting aside the issue of its practical realization, the paper concludes that forest sustainable development cannot be achieved by implementing simple technical improvements in land-use practices alone. Securing the foundations for the sustainability of the forest base will require that countries address the underlying social processes driving tropical forest loss as well.KEY WORDS: Tropical deforestation; Developing countries; Rural land-use practices; Development; Scarcity.     

近五年中国自然灾害空间分布格局及其月动态变化研究

作者根据《中国减灾》所载１９９０～１９９４年月灾情记录，经统一编码和标准化处理，建立了以行政县为基本单元的数据库。进而对近五年来中国自然灾害空间分布及其月动态变化进行分析，并与１９４９～１９９０年中国自然灾害的平均状况进行对比。     

LAKE ONTARIO REGULATION UNDER TRANSPOSED CLIMATES1

ABSTRACT: The implications of Lake Ontario regulation under transposed climates with changed means and variability are presented for seasonal and annual time scales. The current regulation plan is evaluated with climates other than the climate for which it was developed and tested. This provides insight into potential conflicts and management issues, development of regulation criteria for extreme conditions, and potential modification of the regulation plan. Transposed climates from the southeastern and south central continental United States are applied to thermodynamic models of the Great Lakes and hydrologic models of their watersheds; these climates provide four alternative scenarios of water supplies to Lake Ontario. The scenarios are analyzed with reference to the present Great Lakes climate. The responses of the Lake Ontario regulation plan to the transposed climate scenarios illustrate several key issues: (1) historical water supplies should no longer be the sole basis for testing and developing lake regulation plans; (2) during extreme supply conditions, none of the regulation criteria can be met simultaneously, priority of interests may change, and new interests may need to be considered, potentially requiring substantial revision to the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909; (3) revised regulation criteria should be based on ecosystem health and socio-economic benefits for a wider spectrum of interests and not on frequencies and ranges of levels and flows of the historical climate; and (4) operational management of the lake should be improved under the present climate, and under any future climate with more variability, through the use of improved water supply forecasts and monitoring of current hydrologic conditions.     

A WATERSHED APPROACH TO ECOSYSTEM MONITORING IN DENALI NATIONAL PARK AND PRESERVE,ALASKA1

ABSTRACT: The National Park Service and the National Biological Service initiated research in Denali National Park and Preserve, a 2.4 million-hectare park in southcentral Alaska, to develop ecological monitoring protocols for national parks in the Arctic/Subarctic biogeographic area. We are focusing pilot studies on design questions, on scaling issues and regionalization, ecosystem structure and function, indicator selection and evaluation, and monitoring technologies. Rock Creek, a headwater stream near Denali headquarters, is the ecological scale for initial testing of a watershed ecosystem approach. Our conceptual model embraces principles of the hydrological cycle, hypotheses of global climate change, and biological interactions of organisms occupying intermediate, but poorly studied, positions in Alaskan food webs. The field approach includes hydrological and depositional considerations and a suite of integrated measures linking key aquatic and terrestrial biota, environmental variables, or defined ecological processes, in order to establish ecological conditions and detect, track, and understand mechanisms of environmental change. Our sampling activities include corresponding measures of physical, chemical, and biological attributes in four Rock Creek habitats believed characteristic of the greater system diversity of Denali. This paper gives examples of data sets, program integration and scaling, and research needs.