浅淡监测数据的共享与社会效应

结合工作实际对如何有效利用监测数据进行了探讨 ,并引申出监测数据的 4种效应 ,即信息效应、价值效应、广告效应和政治效应。     

太湖沉积物重金属污染及生态风险性评价

对1993年～1999年所采集的太湖表层沉积物中重金属含量进行了统计分析和生态风险性评价.结果表明,太湖沉积物的pH值呈中性至弱碱性,较适合于沉积物中粘土矿物及腐殖质对重金属的吸附;太湖大部分地区沉积物未受到重金属污染,且沉积物中重金属处于安全状态.沉积物生态风险性指数评价结果也表明,太湖大部分地区目前无重金属生态危害.     

基于CA-Markov模型的艾比湖流域平原区景观格局动态模拟预测

利用“3S”技术及CA-Markov模型,按照是否实施跨流域调水工程2种预案情况,以2005年为起始时刻,对新疆艾比湖流域平原区2020年景观格局进行模拟预测。结果显示：在调水工程未实施的情况下,2020年研究区的生态环境将进一步恶化,其突出表现为艾比湖湖泊水面将持续萎缩、裸露湖底盐漠面积进一步扩大,水资源短缺及生态环境恶化的结果将严重制约研究区社会经济的发展;在调水工程实施的情况下,2020年研究区内艾比湖湖泊水面将稳定增加至800 km^2以上、裸露湖底盐漠面积相应有所减少,生态环境恶化趋势得到改善,区域水资源短缺问题将有所缓解,可有效地促进研究区内社会经济的发展。     

Multi-stand Forest Management under a Climatic Risk: Do Time and Risk Preferences Matter?

We propose a stochastic dynamic programming framework to model the management of a multi-stand forest under climate risk (strong wind occurrence). The preferences of the forest-owner are specified by a non-expected utility in order to separately analyze intertemporal substitution and risk aversion effects. A numerical method is developed to characterize the optimal forest management policies and the optimal consumption-saving strategy. The stochastic dynamic programming framework is applied to a non-industrial private forest-owner located in North-East of France. We show that the optimal decisions both depend upon risk and time preferences. The authors would like to thank participants at the international conference on Economics of Sustainable Forest Management in Toronto, at the PARIS 1 seminar on Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, at the 2004 Applied Microeconomics Conference in Lille and at the 13th annual conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists at Budapest.     

CBERS-2B数据提取平原区细小地物系数的方法探讨

利用Landsat TM等中等分辨率影像对区域生态环境进行监测与评价时,由于影像分辨率的局限性,仍有许多地物无法解译出来,如农田中的道路、水渠等,文章主要研究了利用图像融合增强和人机交互式解译等技术方法,对CBERS-2B的CCD影像和HR影像进行处理,提取平原区农田中道路面积比系数,从而将农田中未解译的地物扣除。结果表明,CCD影像与HR影像经过融合增强处理后,可以进行平原地区村级及以上道路的提取。     

Endpoint ‘floating leaves’ of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Potamogeton natans</Emphasis>: A new method to evaluate the development of macrophytes in pond mesocosms

Goal, Scope and Background One of the advantages of long-term mesocosm experiments as compared to short-term standard toxicity tests in the laboratory is the potential for detecting secondary effects due to the interaction of species and recovery with biomass of macrophytes being an important endpoint. However, generating biomass data by harvesting is often laborious, time-consuming, costly and restricted to the end of the experiment. Moreover, valuable information may get lost, in particular in single application studies, since maximal primary effects and secondary effects or recovery occur per se at different times. Potamogeton natans was used as an example in order to test whether number and area of floating leaves can be reliably measured and be used as intermediate and final endpoints in mesocosm effect studies. Methods Digital photos, which were taken of the water surface in the course of an indoor pond mesocosm study on herbicide effects, were subjected to image analysis. The results were compared to wet weight and ash-free dry weight of Potamogeton at the end of the herbicide study. Results and Discussion Both number and area of floating leaves indicated the same herbicide effects as wet weight and ash-free dry weight of Potamogeton. Error introduced by the different work steps is small and can be further minimised by a number of method improvements. Recommendations and Perspectives In indoor mesocosm studies, errors due to the perspective adjustment may be circumvented by taking the photos perpendicular to the water surface. Correction for lens aberration, identical light conditions and the use of fluorescence images are considered promising. Field applications are proposed.     

昆明市城中村火灾事故统计分析

城中村是中国快速城市化进程中的一个普遍现象,由于缺乏统一规划和专门管理,城中村的高火灾风险成为当前面临的重要问题并得到社会各界关注.为获得昆明市城中村火灾的特点和规律,从2004-2006年昆明市火灾统计记录中区分出城中村和非城中村火灾数据,在此基础上采用Bayes统计分析城中村不同用途建筑物的火灾发生概率及概率比例.结果表明,相比城中村其他用途的建筑,居住用房火灾概率较低,而具有生产和加工性质的行业作坊、易燃易爆场所和娱乐场所的火灾概率较高,分别是居住用房的48倍、26倍和18倍.进一步采用火灾原因-场所关联对比分析了城中村和非城中村火灾的特点.从火灾发生场所看,与非城中村相比,城中村居住场所火灾发生比例高7.2%,路边可燃物高88.8%,木材、家具加工厂高184.8%,易燃易爆场所高521.4%; 从火灾原因看,城中村电气、电线短路致灾比例高1 2%,限制行为能力人(小孩和精神病人)致灾比例高65 1%,燃放烟花爆竹致灾比例高3.5%,吸烟致灾比例高50.9%,违章操作致灾比例高59.0%.这些差异基本上反映了城中村的主要外在特征,这些外在特征经城中村实地调研得到证实.     

飞行安全的针对性评估

根据飞行员执行新的或特殊任务的需要,在研制飞行安全评估系统时,设置了针对性评估模块.运用层析分析法(AHP)确定了针对性评估模块与一般性评估模块的权重关系.根据飞行安全理论确定了一般性评估简捷方法的因素、要素及量化数据;根据层析分析法、基元事件分析法确定了针对性评估模块的结构和因素的权重,采用基元事件分析法、飞行法规分析和调查研究相结合的方法,对针对性评估的要素进行了量化.最后针对具体事例做了评估计算.研究表明,当针对性评估的安全度小于90%时,应引起足够的警觉,采取必要的措施.     

多米诺效应的风险分析方法

介绍与分析多米诺效应的相关研究,并针对多米诺效应的定量风险分析,建立了从多米诺场景辨识到后果分析的多米诺效应定量分析方法.通过分析初始事故带来的物理效应对邻近设备的影响,计算了二次设备的损坏概率;分析了多米诺场景,计算了多米诺事故频率,并根据多米诺事故的后果得到个人风险和社会风险曲线.多米诺效应的风险是工业区一个潜在的严重风险,加强多米诺效应的研究对工厂和工业区的安全管理与规划都有重要意义.     

航班起飞过程的风险识别与控制

飞机起飞阶段是事故多发阶段,为了进行风险识别与控制,设计了定性判别方法和定量计算仿真算法,并以具体飞机坠毁事故为例分析了安全裕度.分别计算了飞机冲出跑道的速度、距离和逃生时间.中断起飞的速度与时间,是火灾发生后的判断关键,也构成了飞机起飞事故的裕度.结果表明,中断起飞的安全裕度比坠毁的大,且关于中断起飞的规定有矛盾之处;用于逃生的90 s规则高于中断起飞的决断速度的限制规定.该分析方法为处理危急时刻的两难决策问题提供了理论指导.