Predicting the effects of ionising radiation on ecosystems by a generic model based on the Lotka–Volterra equations

The present work describes a model for predicting the population dynamics of the main components (resources and consumers) of terrestrial ecosystems exposed to ionising radiation. The ecosystem is modelled by the Lotka–Volterra equations with consumer competition. Linear dose–response relationships without threshold are assumed to relate the values of the model parameters to the dose rates. The model accounts for the migration of consumers from areas characterised by different levels of radionuclide contamination. The criteria to select the model parameter values are motivated by accounting for the results of the empirical studies of past decades. Examples of predictions for long-term chronic exposure are reported and discussed.     

Reconciling people's livelihoods and environmental conservation in the rural landscapes in Kenya: Opportunities and challenges in the Amboseli landscapes

Two of the eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in September 2000 are: eradication of extreme poverty and hunger; and ensuring environmental sustainability. The link between depressed livelihoods and unsustainable use of land and natural resources can be seen in Kenyan rangelands. Here, the local community is dependent on land and its resources for livelihoods, but the demand and competition is increasing, endangering both the resources they depend on and threatening environmental health. Amboseli is an Arid and Semi-Arid Land (ASAL) area that experiences ecological constraints, resource limitations, and low economic investment. Local communities in such landscapes are resource-dependent for their daily livelihoods, and have few socio-economic opportunities. Pastoralism, which is the main source of their wealth, continues to decline and exploitation by a few local elites and poor local leadership further depresses livelihoods. Other challenges to these poor rural landscapes are increasing human population which increases demands on natural resources and environment; persistent hunger; low universal primary education; poor gender equality and empowerment of women; environmental degradation; and lack of local and global partnership for development. This paper focuses on the two Millennium Development Goals mentioned above. Linkages, challenges and opportunities in enhancing rural livelihoods while promoting environmental sustainability in rural landscapes of the Amboseli Rural Landscape are discussed.     

城市居民生活能源消费研究进展综述

近十年来中国城市消费领域能耗年增长率已达到7.4%,超过中国总能耗量5.9%的年增长率。随着中国逐渐完成工业化进程,其工业用能将呈现增速放缓甚至总量减少的趋势,而居民生活及交通能源需求将随着人民生活水平提高而稳步增长,最终呈现总量与比重逐渐增加的态势。城市居民活动与其能源消费的定量化分析已成为当前多学科的研究热点。本文以家庭室内和室外直接能源消费作为研究对象,对城市居民生活能耗的影响因素、能源足迹核算方法、时间-室内能耗模拟,及空间-交通-能源耦合模拟等关键问题的研究进展进行综述。研究发现,第一,家庭能源消费属于派生性需求,不同的时间利用方式会产生能源消费水平和结构上的差异,但现有研究较少从时间及活动链分析角度展开。第二,由于家庭预算及时间约束的存在,室内外能源消费行为密切相关,但少有研究对上述两个城市生活部门的能源消费进行整体性分析核算。第三,基于活动的建模方法可以提供一种将居民室内外用能行为进行整合的分析框架。最后对今后该领域的研究开展进行了展望:第一,从活动分析和时间利用视角,建立自下而上的居民室内外用能活动仿真模型,在更小的时间和空间尺度模拟家庭能源需求,识别家庭能耗的主要来源、控制的重点人群、时段和区域,指导能源政策制定;第二,深入剖析能源回弹效应产生的决策机理,以及怎样的政策或政策组合可以有效减少回弹;第三,将社会网络分析引入居民生活能耗研究,更加全面理解影响家庭用能行为的机制,为家庭能源消费管理提供新思路。     

Reducing carbon emissions through improved household energy efficiency in the UK

A number of schemes to increase household energy efficiency have operated in the UK over the last 5–10 years. This paper evaluates their effectiveness in terms of reducing household energy use, carbon emissions and fuel poverty. It then draws on the quantitative results of these schemes, and published plans for their continuation, to model an extended and expanded Household Energy Efficiency Scenario to 2020, using an integrated economy–energy–environment model of the UK. The results suggest that while such schemes can play a significant role in reducing carbon emissions from households, much more ambitious schemes than those currently implemented will be necessary to offset the underlying growth in these emissions. Finally, the results are compared with the UK government's own estimates, in its Climate Change Programme, of carbon emission reductions from such schemes to 2010. The paper concludes that the government's estimates are somewhat optimistic, and that it will need substantial new policy measures beyond those already announced if its carbon reduction targets in this area are to be met. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The influence of crime prevention through environmental design on victimisation and fear of crime

People's perception of crime and incivilities vary considerably depending on their attitudes towards environmental conditions. This paper investigated the hypothesised relationships between Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED), victimisation and fear of crime. The checklist was administered by using on-site observation to measure the CPTED construct followed by a self-administered questionnaire to explore the residents' perceptions of victimisation and fear of crime in their area of residency. In all, 164 respondents from a selected group of residents were involved in this study. The structural equation modelling technique was employed and the results indicate that CPTED is negatively related to victimisation. The model also shows that there is a significant positive direct influence of victimisation on fear of crime. However, no direct significant relationship was found between CPTED and fear of crime, but a negative indirect relationship between CPTED and fear of crime was observed through victimisation.     

移动通信基站景观影响评价方法与实践

为保护景区景观资源,降低对景观的影响,有必要开展风景区移动通信基站建设项目的景观影响评价。针对其建设特点,梳理了移动通信基站景观影响评价思路,探讨了评价方法。以南京玄武湖公园梁州基站为例,在景观敏感度和景观阚值评价的基础上,对3处基站拟建址的景观影响进行评价,给出评价结论和建议,对开展景观影响定量评价具有很好的参考价值。     

文化景观遗产的可持续发展浅析——以杭州西湖为例

文化景观是自然、文化和历史的完美结合体,文化景观遗产的设立不但改变了世界遗产对价值的认识,而且拓宽了世界遗产的实践领域。从世界文化景观遗产入手,分析了它的分布现状及其原因;介绍了我国两项文化景观遗产之一的西湖,同时利用SWOT分析法对西湖进行分析,总结西湖的可持续发展趋势。通过综合分析,提出我国文化景观申遗和保护的建议。     

基于景观生态法的彭州市湔江河谷乡村旅游规划研究

通过分析现阶段彭州市湔江河谷地区开展乡村旅游的综合条件和存在的问题,应用景观生态规划的理论和方法提出湔江河谷地区旅游发展的总体方向,进行生态景观要素布局,设计了三种景观斑块类型和二种景观廊道类型,构建了湔江河谷地区“一核、两轴、三叶、四区”结构,并在此基础上规划了旅游项目和景观,以期为湔江河谷地区乡村旅游开发提供依据。     

内蒙古东乌珠穆沁旗草甸草原生态环境时空演变分析

选取内蒙古东乌珠穆沁旗满都胡宝拉格草甸草原为研究区,在遥感和GIS技术的支撑下,以景观生态学理论为指导,通过分析该地区近15年来四个时期景观类型的空间格局、演化态势和变化规律,从景观视角挖掘出格局信息与生态环境变化之间的内在关联性,运用马尔科夫链模型对未来草原景观格局变化的趋势进行了模拟和预测,并分析了该地区生态环境变化的驱动机制,为科学利用和保护草地资源、保证区域可持续发展提供了科学依据。