基于可拓云模型的区域生态安全预警模型及应用——以祁连山冰川与水源涵养生态功能区张掖段为例

针对区域生态安全预警中的不确定性问题,考虑生态安全等级边界信息的随机性、模糊性及动态性,利用可拓学中兼具定性和定量分析及动态性的物元理论和具有不确定推理特性的云模型,提出了基于可拓云模型的区域生态安全预警模型;运用该模型对祁连山冰川与水源涵养生态功能区张掖段2005—2015年生态安全进行了定量评估,并对2017年生态安全环境进行动态预警。结果表明:祁连山生态功能区张掖段2005—2015年的生态安全整体水平均处于"理想"以下,其变化趋势为"较差"到"一般"再到"良好";2017年祁连山冰川与水源涵养生态功能区张掖段生态安全为"蓝色"预警,但有向"黄色"转变的趋势,其中工业三废、环保投入强度、森林覆盖率及人均水资源量是影响祁连山冰川与水源涵养生态功能区张掖段生态安全的主要因素。     

基于云模型的长时停工隧道衬砌结构质量评价

基于长时停工隧道衬砌结构质量评价中通常存在的定性描述和定量转化问题,引入一种基于云模型理论的长时停工隧道衬砌结构质量评价方法。根据长时停工隧道衬砌结构的特点,选取锚杆数量和衬砌厚度等20项评价指标,建立了长时停工隧道衬砌结构质量分级的评价模型;通过正向正态云发生器生成对应的云模型参数,再结合各评价因子的权重,获得云模型的综合确定度,最后利用最大隶属度原则确定长时停工隧道衬砌结构质量状态等级;将该模型应用于某一长时停工隧道工程实际,评定了该隧道衬砌结构的质量状态等级。结果表明,该方法不仅能给出长时停工隧道衬砌结构的质量等级,还能客观反映长时停工隧道衬砌结构中各因素的合格情况。     

基于CRITIC-有限区间云模型的边坡稳定性评价

针对岩质边坡危险性分级的不确定性,选取坡高、坡角岩体结构特征、岩石单轴抗压强度等12项定量评价指标构建评价体系。根据有限区间云模型的相关概念和计算模型,求出露天采场边坡实测数据的云模型特征参数,利用正向云发生器生成云滴图进行量性概念的转化,通过改进的CRITIC法确定指标权重,进而求出不同采场隶属于不同危险等级的综合隶属度,实现边坡稳定性等级的划分。研究结果表明:评价结果与实际相符,利用CRITIC算法求取的权重值,可以考虑各评价指标的综合信息量以及指标间的相关性系数,使评判结果更具有准确性;同时可以快速准确判断出边坡稳定性分级,进行安全预测,为评价边坡的稳定性提供了新思路。     

浮式LNG平台串靠卸载泄漏后果影响分析

浮式LNG生产储卸装置(FLNG)作为新兴的深海气田生产装置,集天然气生产、液化、储存和装卸功能于一身,其卸载方式主要有旁靠卸载和串靠卸载2种,其中串靠卸载因能适应恶劣海况而备受深海作业欢迎,但串靠卸载的泄漏后果和影响尚不明确,因此研究恶劣海况下LNG串靠卸载的泄漏风险及后果尤为迫切和重要。考虑海上极端气象条件,采用DNV公司的PHAST软件,定量计算FLNG串靠卸载方式在卸载臂发生小孔、中孔、大孔泄漏及全尺寸破裂时,LNG泄漏后产生的具有火灾爆炸危险性的蒸汽隔离区域,根据伤害阈值明确LNG导致人员低温冻伤和窒息的最小距离,并对可能发生的喷射火、池火和蒸汽云爆炸等恶劣事故造成的后果进行预测。     

基于云模型的SPA模型在石化装置危险性评价中的应用

针对现有石化装置危险性评价模型未能充分反映评价指标模糊性和随机性的不足,提出了一种基于云模型的SPA模型,用于石化装置的危险性评价。首先利用云模型中的逆向云发生器计算云权重Wcloud=(Ex,En,He)。然后将云权重应用于五元联系数的集对分析中,进行综合评判可以得到综合评价云模型。通过MATLAB编程将其与标准评语云模型进行比较,确定评价对象的危险等级。结果表明,该模型对石化生产装置的危险性评价能够充分体现评价指标的随机性与模糊性,评价结果更为符合实际。     

基于可拓云理论的泥炭质土场地沉降风险评价

为更好地研究泥炭质土场地地铁车站基坑周边沉降问题,预测和评估施工时及施工后的沉降风险,在分析了泥炭质土的特点后,选择土层厚度、有机质质量分数、重度、天然含水率、孔隙比、土层埋深和压缩模量7个指标,建立沉降风险评估指标体系,并根据改进层次分析法和改进熵权法求出主观权重与客观权重,最后用理想点法耦合主客观权重求出各评价指标的综合权重;根据沉降等级分类标准,生成每个评价指标的云滴图,计算得到各评价因子的可拓云矩阵,进而将综合权重向量与可拓云矩阵相乘得到综合确定度,根据综合确定度最大原则确定样本沉降风险等级。以昆明某地铁车站施工监测数据为例,用建立的可拓云模型对泥炭质土场地的沉降风险进行评价,最终评价结果与实际监测结果吻合较好,验证了分析方法的合理性及可行性。该评价方法充分考虑了多种因素影响,明确了沉降的风险等级,评价结果为泥炭土场地上建(构)筑物的设计施工及应急处理提供了理论依据。     

Temperature profile across the combustion zone propagating through an iron particle cloud

Knowledge of the mechanism of combustion zone propagation during dust explosion is of great importance to prevent damage caused by accidental dust explosions. In this study, the temperature profile across the combustion zone propagating through an iron particle cloud is measured experimentally by a thermocouple to elucidate the propagation mechanism. The measured temperature starts to increase slowly at a position about 5 mm ahead of the leading edge of the combustion zone, increases quickly at a position about 3 mm ahead of the leading edge, reaches a maximum value near the end of the combustion zone, and then decreases. As the iron particle concentration increases, the maximum temperature increases at lower concentration, takes a maximum value, and then decreases at higher concentration. The relation between the propagation velocity of the combustion zone and the maximum temperature is also examined. It is found that the propagation velocity has a linear relationship with the maximum temperature. This result suggests that the conductive heat transfer is dominant in the propagation process of the combustion zone through an iron particle cloud.     

球罐内甲烷气体泄漏形成的可燃气云规律研究

基于计算流动动力学(CFD)方法,以Fluent软件为平台,以大连新港某球罐区为研究对象,建立真实尺寸的球罐内可燃气体泄漏扩散数值模拟模型,分析甲烷扩散规律及可燃气云尺度.提出采用可燃气云稳定状态时的水平方向长度Lmax、竖直方向高度Dmax作为尺度的衡量参数,用以评估可燃气云区域的大小.探讨初始压力、泄漏孔径、正风向风速对尺度参数Lmax和Dmax的影响规律,并对比可燃气体种类对尺度参数的影响.结果表明:甲烷以临界状态通过泄漏孔时,初始压力对Lmax和Dmax的影响可以忽略;Lmax和Dmax随泄漏孔径增加而线性增大,但随正风向风速增加而线性减小;相同泄漏扩散条件下,氢气泄漏引起的可燃气云范围最大,甲烷次之,丙烷最小.     

Risk quantification framework of hydride-based hydrogen storage systems for light-duty vehicles

This study aims to develop a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) framework for on-board hydrogen storage systems in light-duty fuel cell vehicles, with focus on hazards from potential vehicular collision affecting hydride-based hydrogen storage vessels. Sodium aluminum hydride (NaAlH₄) has been selected as a representative reversible hydride for hydrogen storage. Functionality of QRA framework is demonstrated by presenting a case study of a postulated vehicle collision (VC) involving the onboard hydrogen storage system. An event tree (ET) model is developed for VC as the accident initiating event. For illustrative purposes, a detailed FT model is developed for hydride dust cloud explosion as part of the accident progress. Phenomenologically-driven ET branch probabilities are estimated based on an experimental program performed for this purpose. Safety-critical basic events (BE) in the FT model are determined using conventional risk importance measures. The Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) technique has been employed to propagate the aleatory (i.e., stochastic) and epistemic (i.e., phenomenological) uncertainties associated with the probabilistic ET and FT models. Extrapolation of the proposed QRA framework and its core risk-informed insights to other candidate on-board reversible and off-board regenerable hydrogen storage systems could provide better understanding of risk consequences and mitigation options associated with employing this hydrogen-based technology in the transportation sector.     

Thermal radiation from vapour cloud explosions

The current study estimates the radiation flux emitted from hot extended gas clouds characteristic of vapour cloud explosions along with the corresponding level of irradiance posed on particles suspended in the unburnt part of the cloud ahead of an advancing flame front. The data presented permits an assessment of the plausibility of combustion initiation by such particles due to forward thermal radiation. The thermal radiation will depend on the emissivity of the burned volume, which relates to the concentration of gaseous and particulate combustion products. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out to account for variations in the equivalence ratio, mixture pressure and radiative heat losses. The spatial distribution of irradiance ahead of the flame front has been computed by introducing appropriate geometrical factors to explore the impact of cloud size. Using fuel rich ethylene-air mixtures it has been shown that high flame emissivities can be achieved at path lengths of order 1 m even in the presence of very low soot volume fractions. The emissivity of gas-soot mixtures will hence be mainly determined by the soot concentration and to a lesser extent by the mixture temperature. Our analysis suggests that the role of forward thermal radiation as a contributing factor to flame propagation in large scale vapour cloud explosions can not currently be ruled out.