抚仙湖、星云湖与杞麓湖营养状态演变及突变分析

为科学评价抚仙湖、星云湖和杞麓湖(简称三湖)营养状态及其变化趋势,基于三湖1991-2015年水质数据,采用综合营养状态指数法评价其富营养化水平,通过Mann-Kendall(Sneyers)方法判识三湖富营养化趋势及突变时间。结果表明:三湖都存在水质恶化现象,其综合营养状态指数及各分项指数均呈变差趋势,表征其营养物质在增加。三湖的营养化水平和演变时间存在显著差异,抚仙湖处于贫营养,星云湖由中营养转变为富营养,杞麓湖表现为中度-重度富营养化;抚仙湖和杞麓湖分别在2004、2011年出现突变点,星云湖自2000年后综合营养状态指数显著增加。基于三湖营养状态演变及趋势,结合变化特征及相关情况的讨论,提出对抚仙湖的管理应减少农业化肥和农药排放,对星云湖和杞麓湖的管理应削减高污染工矿企业排放等。     

关于废水监测断面及采样点位选择的探讨

通过对不同采样点位的监测数据统计分析,以求找到最优采样点位。     

硅藻群落指示的近50年来大理西湖湖泊生态系统演变规律

近年来,增强的人类活动使得云南部分湖泊生态系统发生退化,由草型清水态向藻型浊水态转变.全球变化背景下,了解湖泊生态系统演变规律是进行有效管理的前提,具有重要的科学意义.本研究以云南大理州小型浅水湖泊西湖为例,通过对沉积物硅藻群落和理化指标的分析,探讨了20世纪60年代中期以来大理西湖环境演变历程.结果表明,大理西湖生态系统在近50年发生了明显的稳态转换,以2000年为节点,硅藻群落从2000年前偏好贫营养环境的底栖附生种Cocconeis placentula、Staurosira construens、Gomphonema angustum和Achnanthidium minutissimum为优势种的状态,逐渐演替为偏好中营养环境的底栖附生硅藻Encyonopsis microcephala和Navicula cryptocephala及偏好富营养环境的浮游硅藻Cyclotella atomus、Cyclotella meneghiniana、Stephanodiscus hantzschii和Aulacoseira granulata为主导的状态.时间序列的主成分分析表明,硅藻群...     

基于激光雷达技术的粉尘污染源监测

针对粉尘污染点源数量多、夜间偷排偷放监测难等问题,环保监测迫切需要发展新一代遥感监测技术,为环境保护提供技术支撑。激光雷达具有远距离、全天时监测的优势,可实现对污染源的客观、全天时监测。为了验证激光雷达主动遥感技术监测粉尘污染源排放的可行性,在河北省组织了一次粉尘污染源的Lidar监测实验,在进行距离校正的基础上,发展了Lidar点源污染监测指数因子方法。结果表明:烟尘排放浓度与Lidar指数因子具有较好的一致性,校正决定系数可达0.94。在稳定排污的情况下研究Lidar指数因子的限值,结果显示,将指数因子的限值设为2.3时,与在线监测的一致性可以达到99%以上。     

CALM单点系泊浮筒建造有限空间作业安全管理研究

CALM单点系泊浮筒建造过程中涉及到的有限空间作业多,危险性大,易发生安全事故。为降低作业风险,本文结合单点系泊浮筒建造实际情况,辨识浮筒建造有限空间作业的主要风险,并从作业前准备、作业过程控制以及应急救援等方面系统提出安全管控措施。通过监督落实作业方案、工作前安全分析、作业许可、气体检测、通风、应急预案等预防控制措施,可以规范有限空间现场施工,有效降低作业风险,确保作业安全。     

以南疆为例的区域暴恐袭击风险评估

为探寻暴恐袭击高风险区域,推进公共安全精细化管理,以南疆地区为例,采用网格化社会经济数据、遥感数据和兴趣点(POI)数据等多源地理空间数据,从暴恐分子出现可能性、暴恐袭击目标选择偏好和暴恐袭击后果3个方面建立暴恐袭击风险评估指标体系,根据层次分析法(AHP)-Entropy、聚类分区等确定地理空间指标权重,最终得到南疆地区30″×30″(约1 km×1 km)细粒度的暴恐袭击风险的空间分布情况。结果表明:南疆地区的暴恐袭击高风险以上网格主要位于喀什、和田及阿克苏地区的部分市区和县城,与暴恐袭击历史事件的分布较一致,证明风险评估指标体系的合理性和可行性。     

Human disturbance and shifts in vertebrate community composition in a biodiversity hotspot

Understanding how human modification of the landscape shapes vertebrate community composition is vital to understanding the current status and future trajectory of wildlife. Using a participatory approach, we deployed the largest camera-trap network in Mesoamerica to date to investigate how anthropogenic disturbance shapes the occupancy and co-occurrence of terrestrial vertebrate species in a tropical biodiversity hotspot: the Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica. We estimated species richness in different categories of land protection with rarefaction analysis and estimated the expected occupancy with a joint species distribution model that included covariates for anthropogenic disturbance, land protection, habitat quality, and habitat availability. Areas with the most stringent land-use protections (e.g., Corcovado National Park, 24 species [95% CI 23–25]) harbored significantly more species than unprotected areas (20 species [19.7–20.3]), mainly due to a reduced presence of large-bodied species of conservation concern in unprotected areas (e.g., jaguar Panthera onca and white-lipped peccary Tayassu pecari). Small-bodied generalist species, such as opossums (Didelphidae) and armadillos (Dasypus novemcinctus), in contrast, were more common at disturbed sites, resulting in a significant difference in vertebrate community composition between sites with low and high disturbance. Co-occurrence of species was also mainly associated with response to disturbance. Similar responses to disturbance create two groups of species, those whose site-level occupancy usually increased as anthropogenic disturbance increased and those whose estimated occupancy decreased. The absence of large-bodied species entails an important loss of ecological function in disturbed areas and can hinder forest development and maintenance. Efforts to protect and restore forested landscapes are likely having a positive effect on the abundance of some threatened species. These efforts, however, must be sustained and expanded to increase connectivity and ensure the long-term viability of the wildlife community.     

基于介度熵的机场飞行区关键冲突点识别*

为了探究机场航班流量增大和作业车辆增多而导致机场飞行区内频繁出现活动目标冲突情况，提出1种基于介度熵的机场飞行区关键冲突点识别方法。首先，以飞行区内活动目标为节点，活动目标之间的潜在冲突关系为连边，建立飞行区交通态势网络模型。然后，采用介度熵法评价交通态势网络中各活动目标的冲突指数，得到冲突指数最大的活动目标即关键冲突点。最后，将介度熵法与度中心性、介数中心性和邻接信息熵3种识别方法进行对比，并以西安咸阳国际机场为例进行验证。研究结果表明:识别飞行区关键冲突点时，介度熵法较其他3种方法更有效。通过建立飞行区交通态势网络，采用介度熵法识别飞行区关键冲突点并进行调配，一定程度上可以有效预防冲突发生，保障飞行区运行安全。     

Lessons from other disciplines for setting management thresholds for biodiversity conservation

Successful, state-dependent management, in which the goal of management is to maintain a system in a desired state, involves defining the boundaries between different states. Once these boundaries have been defined, managers require a strategic action plan with thresholds that initiate management interventions to either maintain or return the system to a desired state. This approach to management is widely used across diverse industries from agriculture, to medicine, to information technology, but it has only been adopted in conservation management relatively recently. Conservation practitioners have expressed a willingness to integrate this structured approach in their management systems, but they have also voiced concerns, including lack of a robust process for doing so. Given the widespread use of state-dependent management in other fields, we conducted an extensive review of the literature on threshold-based management to gain insight into how and where it is applied and identify potential lessons for conservation management. We identified 22 industries using 75 different methods for setting management thresholds in 843 studies. Methods spanned six broad approaches, including expert driven, statistical, predictive, optimization, experimental, and artificial intelligence methods. The objectives of each of these studies influenced the approaches used, including the methods for setting thresholds and selecting actions, and the number of thresholds set. The role of value judgments in setting thresholds was clear; studies across all industries frequently involved experts in setting thresholds, often accompanied by computational tools to simulate the consequences of proposed thresholds under different conditions. Of the 30 conservation studies examined, two-thirds used expert-driven methods, consistent with prior evidence that experience-based information often drives conservation management decisions. The methods we identified from other disciplines could help conservation decision makers set thresholds for management interventions in different contexts, linking monitoring to management actions and ensuring that conservation interventions are timely and effective.