基于多智能体建模方法的人群应急疏散模型构建研究——以腾龙芳烃（漳州）有限公司“4·6”爆炸着火重大事故疏散为例*

为从更微观角度分析人群疏散过程中疏散行为及路网设计对疏散效果的影响,基于腾龙芳烃（漳州）有限公司“4·6”爆炸着火重大事故,构建多智能体人群应急疏散模型,模拟人群中个体群组、惯性、就近、从众、信息传播的行为决策及相互交互影响。结果表明:群组行为会严重影响应急疏散效果,在疏散路网两端避难所附近会出现明显拥堵现象,在疏散路网设计和避难所选择时,应尽可能避免出现极端汇流路段或节点;在应急培训中,应告知群众减少群组行为。研究结果可为人群应急疏散提供借鉴。     

废旧阴极射线管(CRT)显示器玻壳中铅浸出特性研究

CRT显示器玻壳中含有大量的铅,废旧CRT显示器玻壳被列为危险废物。采用4种浸提方法(水平振荡法(GB5086.2-1997)、翻转法(GB5086.1-1997)、硫酸硝酸法(HJ/T299-2007)、醋酸缓冲溶液法(HJ/T300-2007))研究CRT显示器玻壳中铅的浸出特性。同时探讨浸提液pH和pH缓冲能力、振荡方式、CRT玻壳颗粒粒径、液固比、浸提时间对CRT玻壳颗粒中的Pb浸出的影响。结果表明:上述4种方法浸提液中Pb的平均浓度分别为0.07、0.69、1.64、11.33 mg/L。随着醋酸缓冲液初始pH值从4.0升高到7.0,其浸提的Pb的含量呈现出逐渐下降的趋势。而去离子水的pH值低于5时,其浸提的Pb的含量才明显升高。Visual MINTEQ模型计算结果表明:在去离子水和硫酸硝酸混合液浸提过程中,主要以酸碱反应为主;而在醋酸缓冲液浸提过程中,以酸碱反应和络合反应为主。前3种浸提方法使用的浸提液类似于天然水环境或降水,其浸提的Pb浓度高于地下水环境质量III标准。第4种浸提方法模拟垃圾填埋场环境,其浸提的Pb的浓度高于工业固废最高容许浸出浓度。因此,废旧CRT玻壳无论填埋处置或直接进入土...     

Assessment of locomotion behavioral defects induced by acute toxicity from heavy metal exposure in nematode Caenorhabditis elegans

Locomotion behaviors are susceptible to disruption by a broad spectrum of chemicals and environmental stresses. However, no systematic testing of locomotion behavior defects induced by metal exposure has been conducted in the model organism of nematode Caenorhabditis elegans. In this study, the acute toxicity from heavy metal exposure on the locomotion behaviors was analyzed in nematodes. Endpoints of head thrash, body bend, forward turn, backward turn, and Omega/U turn were chosen to evaluate the locomotio...     

锌冶炼废渣重金属在地块土壤中的垂向迁移特征及归趋

为探讨冶炼废渣中重金属对土壤及地下水的影响,开展了90 d持续和间歇淋溶下锌挥发窑渣浸出液中重金属在场地剖面土柱的迁移模拟实验,分析淋出液Cd、 Cu、 Pb和Zn浓度及其在土壤剖面的累积、赋存形态和粒径分布特征,并探讨重金属在土壤剖面滞留机制.结果表明,土柱淋出液重金属浓度在淋溶初期达到峰值后迅速降低,Cd浓度超过《地下水环境质量标准》(GB/T 14848-2017)Ⅳ类水质限值(0.1 mg·L^-1),地下水存在Cd污染风险.剖面土壤对废渣中重金属固持量大,Cd、 Cu、 Pb和Zn主要累积在浅层土壤(0～10 cm),分别为淋溶前土壤的237～429、 1.25～16.2、 1.38～2.31和1.79～3.17倍;持续淋溶下废渣重金属较间歇淋溶的迁移距离较长,Cd在土柱深层有明显累积.土壤粗颗粒(0.5～2.0 mm)对Cd、 Cu和Zn累积总量的贡献率较大,而Pb更易累积在<0.25 mm粒径.BCR顺序提取结果显示,浅层土壤累积的Cd、 Cu和Zn主要以弱酸提取态为主,占比分别高达62.4%～76.7%、 72.0%～95.8%和67.6%～8...     

Assessing conservation opportunity on private land: socio-economic, behavioral, and spatial dimensions

This study presents a method for assessing conservation opportunity on private land based on landholders' socio-economic, behavioral, and farm characteristics. These characteristics include age, gender, education, level of off-farm income, farm size, proportion of remnant native vegetation on-farm, and ecological value of native vegetation on-farm. A sample of landholders who own greater than 2 ha of land in the South Australian Murray-Darling Basin region were sent a mail-based survey about their values and preferences for environmental management (N = 659, 52% response). Cross-tabulations and ANOVA statistical analysis techniques were used to compare the socio-economic attributes across three landholder classes: disengaged, moderately engaged, and highly engaged in native vegetation planting. Results indicate that highly engaged landholders were more likely to be female, formally educated, hobby farmers who managed small parcels of land and have high off-farm incomes, whereas disengaged landholders held significantly stronger farming connections (more farming experience, family have lived on the farm for more generations). Spatial analysis revealed area-specific differences in conservation opportunity and conservation priority. In some areas, properties of high ecological value were managed by highly engaged landholders, but nearby properties of high value were managed by moderately engaged or disengaged landholders. Environmental managers therefore cannot assume areas of high conservation priority will be areas of high conservation opportunity. At the regional scale, the potential for revegetation seems most promising within the moderately engaged landholder group considering the vast amount of land managed by this group in areas of high ecological value, particularly within the less represented Mallee and Coorong and Rangelands sub-regions. We suggest that incentive schemes which purchase conservation need to be targeted at disengaged landholders; mentoring schemes led by commercial farmers highly engaged in native vegetation planting should be directed at moderately engaged landholders, and; awards programs which acknowledge conservation successes should be targeted at highly engaged landholders.     

Analysis of behavioral changes of zebrafish (Danio rerio) in response to formaldehyde using Self-organizing map and a hidden Markov model

Two computational methods were applied to classification of movement patterns of zebrafish (Danio rerio) to elucidate Markov processes in behavioral changes before and after treatment of formaldehyde (0.1 mg/L) in semi-natural conditions. The complex data of the movement tracks were initially classified by the Self-organizing map (SOM) to present different behavioral states of test individuals. Transition probabilities between behavioral states were further evaluated to fit Markov processes by using the hidden Markov model (HMM). Emission transition probability was also obtained from the observed variables (i.e., speed) for training with the HMM. Experimental transition and emission probability matrices were successfully estimated with the HMM for recognizing sequences of behavioral states with accuracy rates in acceptable ranges at central and boundary zones before (77.3-81.2%) and after (70.1-76.5%) treatment. A heuristic algorithm and a Markov model were efficiently combined to analyze movement patterns and could be a means of in situ behavioral monitoring tool.     

海洋溢油污染的生态与健康危害

随着溢油事故的频繁发生,海洋溢油污染备受关注.本文在阐述国内外海洋溢油污染现状的基础上,针对溢油污染对人类健康的影响进行了初步分析,并针对海洋环境中溢油的环境行为以及对海洋生态系统、沿岸滩涂生态系统的毒性效应进行了概述.最后,对海洋溢油污染研究的发展趋势进行了展望.     

具有危险源性质的复杂系统安全行为演化研究

为解决具有危险源性质的复杂社会技术系统安全行为演化动力机制问题,针对系统生命周期长、影响因素多的特点,以日本福岛核泄漏事故为例,创建扩展型功能共振模型,用于描述系统内安全事故影响因素的作用过程。而后将系统相关主体分为实施方、业主方和第三方共3类,运用演化博弈方法深入研究发现,三方所承担的安全执行成本、安全处罚成本及事故成本之间的数量关系变化是系统安全行为演化发展的动力,3类成本失衡引发的监管机制失效是导致此次核泄漏事故的根源,并据此提出保持政府独立性和权威性、限制业主行为、建立项目责任主体终生追溯机制和采用立体处罚方式的建议。     

基于计划行为理论的矿工违章行为研究

矿工违章行为是诱发煤矿重大事故的关键因素之一,以计划行为理论(TPB)为构架,加入过去行为和风险倾向2个变量,提出矿工违章行为影响因素之间的假设关系。通过问卷调查并运用结构方程模型(SEM)探讨违章行为影响因素之间的关系。结果表明:行为态度、主观规范、行为控制认知、风险倾向这4个变量对违章行为均有显著影响,主观规范和过去行为通过行为态度这一中介变量又间接地影响违章行为。实证研究结果表明,TPB模型在解释矿工违章行为问题上的适用性。