表面活性剂对采油区土壤装填土柱中PAHs迁移渗透的影响

以阴离子表面活性剂十二烷基苯磺酸钠(LAS)对采油区土壤(MGP)中PAHs的淋洗效果进行研究．结果表明，5CMC(临界胶束浓度)LAS促进了土柱中PAHs的迁移渗透，土柱中PAHs的淋溶率较低，而且仅土柱上层5cm的土样中PAHs发生了较为明显的淋溶．与Br^-离子穿透曲线相比，土柱中PAHs的淋溶均有滞后现象，而且随着环数的增加，PAHs的淋溶滞后现象愈加明显．PAHs的迁移渗滤性与其辛醇／水分配系数之间具有显著负相关性，说明随着辛醇／水分配系数的增加，PAHs的淋溶率逐渐降低．     

三峡库区生活垃圾总磷的分布特征和溶出规律研究

了解垃圾堆放场堆存生活垃圾的污染物含量及浸泡条件下污染物的溶出规律，有助于正确评价垃圾堆放场所带来的环境影响，从而为政府部门的决策提供依据。文章以三峡库区为例，通过测定三峡库区主要垃圾堆放场堆存生活垃圾总磷的含量，分析它们的分布特征，并且进行生活垃圾浸泡条件下总磷的溶出实验，分析它们的溶出规律，为三峡库区的环境保护提供帮助。结果表明，(1)三峡库区生活垃圾总磷的含量位于50-3290mg／kg之间，总磷分布集中于100-1600mg／kg之间，且区域差异较大；(2)生活垃圾淹没条件下总磷的释放规律为开始较慢，逐渐增大，达到最大值以后减少，最后趋于稳定；(3)生活垃圾淹没条件下总磷的单位溶出量与时间的关系满足逻辑斯特模型w=α／[1 βexp(-kt)]，且垃圾单位可溶出量α随质量增加而减少，利用本模型可以预测垃圾进入水体后总磷溶出的初期行为。     

Adaptive two-stage one-per-stratum sampling

We briefly describe adaptive cluster sampling designs in which the initial sample is taken according to a Markov chain one-per-stratum design (Breidt, 1995) and one or more secondary samples are taken within strata if units in the initial sample satisfy a given condition C. An empirical study of the behavior of the estimation procedure is conducted for three small artificial populations for which adaptive sampling is appropriate. The specific sampling strategy used in the empirical study was a single random-start systematic sample with predefined systematic samples within strata when the initially sampled unit in that stratum satisfies C. The bias of the Horvitz-Thompson estimator for this design is usually very small when adaptive sampling is conducted in a population for which it is suited. In addition, we compare the behavior of several alternative estimators of the standard error of the Horvitz-Thompson estimator of the population total. The best estimator of the standard error is population-dependent but it is not unreasonable to use the Horvitz-Thompson estimator of the variance. Unfortunately, the distribution of the estimator is highly skewed hence the usual approach of constructing confidence intervals assuming normality cannot be used here.     

The dynamic nature of antipredator behavior: prey fish integrate threat-sensitive antipredator responses within background levels of predation risk

Prey animals often have to face a dynamic tradeoff between the costs of antipredator behavior and the benefits of other fitness-related activities such as foraging and reproduction. According to the threat-sensitive predator avoidance hypothesis, prey animals should match the intensity of their antipredator behavior to the degree of immediate threat posed by the predator. Moreover, longer-term temporal variability in predation risk (over days to weeks) can shape the intensity of antipredator behavior. According to the risk allocation hypothesis, changing the background level of risk for several days is often enough to change the response intensity of the prey to a given stimulus. As the background level of risk increases, the response intensity of the prey decreases. In this study, we tested for possible interactions between immediate threat-sensitive responses to varying levels of current perceived risk and temporal variability in background risk experienced over the past 3 days. Juvenile convict cichlids were preexposed to either low or high frequencies of predation risk (using conspecific chemical alarm cues) for 3 days and were then tested for a response to one of five concentrations (100, 50, 25, 12.5%, or a distilled water control). According to the threat-sensitive predator avoidance hypothesis, we found greater intensity responses to greater concentrations of alarm cues. Moreover, in accordance with the risk allocation hypothesis, we found that cichlids previously exposed to the high background level of risk exhibited a lower overall intensity response to each alarm cue concentration than those exposed to the low background level of risk. It is interesting to note that we found that the background level of risk over the past 3 days influenced the threshold level of response to varying concentrations of alarm cues. Indeed, the minimum stimulus concentration that evoked a behavioral response was lower for fish exposed to high background levels of predation than those exposed to low background levels of predation. These results illustrate a remarkable interplay between immediate (current) risk and background risk in shaping the intensity of antipredator responses.     

Attrition and housing improvements: A study of post-disaster housing after three years

This research is part of an effort to monitor houses built for victims of hurricane Fifi in 1975. After 3 years (1978) we interviewed the residents to determine the rate of continued occupancy and the amount of housing improvement and the correlates of both. We found that a significant number of small families, Protestants, and families that had not participated in the construction of the housing had moved. From what we could determine, moving was primarily related to seeking work and improving one's financial position.
Nearly 90% of the permanent occupants had improved their houses with either indigenous or manufactured materials. Non-improvement of houses was concentrated among families with few members. The largest number of unimproved houses was located in the project that sewed the poorest victims and contained the cheapest housing.     

Identifying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on driving behavior using naturalistic driving data and time series forecasting

Introduction: COVID-19 has disrupted daily life and societal flow globally since December 2019; it introduced measures such as lockdown and suspension of all non-essential movements. As a result, driving activity was also significantly affected. Still, to-date, a quantitative assessment of the effect of COVID-19 on driving behavior during the lockdown is yet to be provided. This gap forms the motivation for this paper, which aims at comparing observed values concerning three indicators (average speed, speeding, and harsh braking), with forecasts based on their corresponding observations before the lockdown in Greece. Method: Time series of the three indicators were extracted using a specially developed smartphone application and transmitted to a back-end platform between 01/01/2020 and 09/05/2020, a time period containing normal operations, COVID-19 spreading, and the full lockdown period in Greece. Based on the collected data, XGBoost was employed to identify the most influential COVID-19 indicators, and Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models were developed for obtaining forecasts on driving behavior. Results: Results revealed the intensity of the impact of COVID-19 on driving, especially on average speed, speeding, and harsh braking per 100 km. More specifically, speeds were found to increase by 2.27 km/h on average compared to the forecasted evolution, while harsh braking/100 km increased to almost 1.51 on average. On the bright side, road crashes in Greece were reduced by 49% during the months of COVID-19 compared to the non-COVID-19 period.     

Modeling drivers’ reaction when being tailgated: A Random Forests Method

Background: Tailgating is a common aggressive driving behavior that has been identified as one of the leading causes of rear-end crashes. Previous studies have explored the behavior of tailgating drivers and have reported effective solutions to decrease the amount or prevalence of tailgating. This paper tries to fill the research gap by focusing on understanding highway tailgating scenarios and examining the leading vehicles’ reaction using existing naturalistic driving data. Method: A total of 1,255 tailgating events were identified by using the one-second time headway threshold criterion. Four types of reactions from the leading vehicles were identified, including changing lanes, slowing down, speeding up, and making no response. A Random Forests algorithm was employed in this study to predict the leading vehicle’s reaction based on corresponding factors including driver, vehicle, and environmental variables. Results: The analysis of the tailgating scenarios and associated factors showed that male drivers were more frequently involved in tailgating events than female drivers and that tailgating was more prevalent under sunny weather and in daytime conditions. Changing lanes was the most prevalent reaction from the leading vehicle during tailgating, which accounted for more than half of the total events. The results of Random Forests showed that mean time headway, duration of tailgating, and minimum time headway were three main factors, which had the greatest impact on the leading vehicle drivers’ reaction. It was found that in 95% of the events, leading vehicles would change lanes when being tailgated for two minutes or longer. Practical Applications: Results of this study can help to better understand the behavior and decision making of drivers. This understanding can be used in designing countermeasures or assistance systems to reduce tailgating behavior and related negative safety consequences.     

Shopping online for children: Is safety a consideration?

Introduction: There has been a significant increase in online purchasing and product safety problems have been identified in e-commerce. This study examines consumer behavior and safety perceptions among parents purchasing child products online. Method: A mixed methods approach, including focus groups and a survey with parents, identified key characteristics and behaviors. Cluster analysis was used to determine different population segments (including “Informed,” “Uninformed,” and “Infrequent” consumer groups) based on their frequency of online shopping and search for product information. “Safe” and “Unsafe” behavior groups were identified related to their search for safety information on child products. Logistic regression analysis was used to study the effects of consumer type groups and demographic variables on the chances of being a safer consumer. Results: Findings indicate that child product safety considerations are not a priority for parents when shopping online. Only 62% of the survey respondents indicated that they search for information prior to buying a child product online, of which only 13% of the respondents noted that they search for information on product safety. Risky consumer behaviors were identified including the purchase of imitation products (counterfeit or knockoff products) and autonomous checks for product safety in lieu of safety standards. The logistic regression analysis found that being an “Uninformed Consumer” increases the odds of an individual being an “Unsafe Consumer” by 8.4 times (χ²(11) = 97.33, p < .001). Practical Applications: Design of a social marketing campaign that targets these different population segments to change perceptions and promote safe online purchasing is recommended.     

基于驾驶模拟的自动驾驶接管行为研究*

为探索有条件自动驾驶对非驾驶相关任务的允准边界,基于实车驾驶模拟器,设计自动驾驶接管试验典型场景,招募30名被试者开展驾驶模拟试验;要求驾驶人执行3种分心形式的驾驶次任务,系统发出接管请求提示后,驾驶人接管车辆控制权以避免险情发生,并分析驾驶人接管反应时间、驾驶负荷以及驾驶绩效等相关数据。结果表明:驾驶次任务涉及的分心形式越复杂,接管过程安全性越差,视觉分心任务与操作分心任务对接管行为影响显著;驾驶人更倾向于选择制动操作接管车辆,次任务分心程度越高,制动接管比例越大;与乘客聊天对接管行为影响不显著,看视频和玩手机游戏均会显著延长接管反应时间,增加工作负荷与车辆纵向减速度,玩手机游戏还会显著提升车辆横向加速度。     

社会支持对智能化矿井矿工违章行为的影响——缓解职业倦怠和心智游移的方法研究*

为明晰智能化矿井矿工的职业倦怠和心智游移水平以及社会支持、职业倦怠和心智游移对矿工违章行为的作用机理,以366名普通矿井矿工和379名智能化矿井矿工为研究对象进行问卷调查,运用AMOS7.0建立社会支持、职业倦怠与心智游移和矿工违章行为之间的结构方程模型（SEM）。结果表明:智能化矿井矿工比普通矿井矿工的职业倦怠水平和心智游移水平高;社会支持和矿工违章行为显著负相关;社会支持不仅可以直接影响矿工违章行为,还可以通过职业倦怠的独立中介作用以及职业倦怠与心智游移的链式中介作用2条路径间接影响矿工违章行为;有效提高矿工的社会支持可以缓解其职业倦怠水平,进而降低心智游移出现频率,最终减少矿工违章行为的发生。研究结果可为智能化矿井的安全生产管理提供科学依据。