Eventual saturation of the climate–carbon cycle feedback studied with a conceptual model

A saturation of climate–carbon cycle feedback was found earlier in the simulations with the IAP RAS climate model of intermediate complexity. Here, this eventual saturation is interpreted by using a conceptual linearised coupled model. It is shown that this saturation is due to weak, logarithmic, dependence of the carbon dioxide radiative forcing on its atmospheric concentration. This eventual saturation leads to the non-monotonic behaviour of climate–carbon cycle parameter f   in time. If the time scale of the atmospheric CO₂${\text{CO}}_2$ build up is _tp$t_{\text{p}}$ then, starting from an initial equilibrium, f   approaches maximum in time ?_tp$?t_{\text{p}}$. Afterwards, climate–carbon cycle parameter decreases and eventually tends to unity. The time scale of the latter decrease is _t1=(1−5)_tp$t_1=(1-5)t_{\text{p}}$. A dependence of _tm$t_{\text{m}}$ and _t1$t_1$ on governing parameters of the conceptual model is studied. It is argued that an eventual saturation of the climate–carbon cycle feedback is expected to occur also in the other integrations of sufficient length with coupled climate–carbon cycle models.     

Urban expansion and its contribution to the regional carbon emissions: Using the model based on the population density distribution

The method is used for calculating regional urban area dynamics and the resulting carbon emissions (from the land-conversion) for the period of 1980 till 2050 for the eight world regions. This approach is based on the fact that the spatial distribution of population density is close to the two-parametric Γ-distribution [Kendall, M.G., Stuart, A., 1958. The Advanced Theory of Statistics, vol. 1.2. Academic Press, New York; Vaughn, R., 1987. Urban Spatial Traffic Patterns, Pion, London]. The developed model provides us with the scenario of urbanisation, based on which the regional and world dynamics of carbon emissions and export from cities, and the annual total urban carbon balance are estimated. According to our estimations, world annual emissions of carbon as a result of urbanisation increase up to 1.25 GtC in 2005 and begin to decrease afterwards. If we compare the emission maximum with the annual emission caused by deforestation, 1.36 GtC per year, then we can say that the role of urbanised territories (UT) in the global carbon balance is of a comparable magnitude. Regarding the world annual export of carbon from UT, we observe its monotonous growth by three times, reaching 505 MtC. The latter, is comparable to the amount of carbon transported by rivers into the ocean (196–537 MtC). The current model shows that urbanisation is inhibited in the interval 2020–2030, and by 2050 the growth of urbanised areas would almost stop. Hence, the total balance, being almost constant until 2000, then starts to decrease at an almost constant rate. By the end of the XXI century, the total carbon balance will be equal to zero, with the exchange flows fully balanced, and may even be negative, with the system beginning to take up carbon from the atmosphere, i.e., becomes a “sink”. The regional dynamics is somewhat more complex, i.e., some regions, like China, Asia and Pacific are being active sources of Carbon through the studied period, while others are changing from source to sink or continue to be neutral in respect the GCC.     

Modeling the carbon cycle of urban systems

Although more than 80% of carbon dioxide emissions originate in urban areas, the role of human settlements in the biosphere evolution and in global carbon cycling remains largely neglected. Understanding the relationships between the form and pattern of urban development and the carbon cycle is however crucial for estimating future trajectories of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and can facilitate mitigation of climate change. In this paper I review state-of-the-art in modeling of urban carbon cycle. I start with the properties of urban ecosystems from the ecosystem theory point of view. Then I discuss key elements of an urban system and to which degree they are represented in the existing models. In conclusions I highlight necessity of including biophysical as well as human related carbon fluxes in an urban carbon cycle model and necessity of collecting relevant data.     

华北地区水资源及水安全问题的思考与研究

结合中国科学院知识创新工程项目“华北地区水循环与水资源安全”的研究工作,论述华北地区紧迫的水安全问题与反思,展望国际水科学研究前沿与热点问题,介绍中国科学院在变化环境下的水循环、农业节水和水资源安全研究的阶段成果和近期研究行动计划,提出中国北方特别是华北地区的水文水资源科学研究与发展的几点建议。目的是研讨未来中国北方特别是华北地区水资源安全国家需求中的长远发展的前沿性问题。     

温带亚高山针叶林土壤碳循环微生物群落的时空动态

选取参与碳固定的二磷酸羧化/加氧酶基因（cbbM）、有机碳降解的淀粉酶基因（amylase）和纤维素酶基因（cellulase）作为分子标记,用实时定量PCR方法对温带亚高山华北落叶松（Larix gmelinii var.principis-rupprechtii）林、白杄（Picea meyeri）林、青杄（P.wilsonii）林和油松（Pinus tabulaeformis）林土壤碳循环功能微生物类群丰度的时空动态开展研究.结果显示,总碳（TC）、总氮（TN）、总硫（TS）、有机质（OM）和有机碳（TOC）、pH值、铵态氮（NH₄⁺-N）、硝态氮（NO₃^--N）、过氧化氢酶、蔗糖酶和脲酶活性在4种森林土壤中都有不同程度的差异,且有显著的季节变化特征.高海拔华北落叶松林土壤TC、TN、TS、C/N、OM和TOC含量最高,而pH值最低.土壤TC、TN、亚硝态氮（NO₂^--N）含量、蔗糖酶和脲酶活性,与碳循环微生物类群的丰度呈极显著相关.土壤NO₃^--N含量与有机碳分解和固碳微生物类群的相对丰度显著相关;土壤C/N、NO₂^--N、pH值、OM、TOC、过氧化氢酶及脲酶活性,与降解易分解碳（labile C）和难分解碳（recalcitrant C）的微生物类群的相对丰度呈极显著相关.植被类型和季节变化共同影响土壤碳循环微生物类群的丰度,而季节变化是主导因素.植被和土壤环境因子通过调控微生物群落碳代谢功能类群的结构,影响森林土壤碳源-汇的平衡.     

Diversity, Seasonality, and Context of Mammalian Roadkills in the Southern Great Plains

Thousands of mammals are killed annually from vehicle collisions, making the issue an important one for conservation biologists and environmental managers. We recorded all readily identifiable kills on or immediately adjacent to roads in the southern Great Plains from March 2004–March 2007. We also recorded distance traveled, whether a road was paved or divided, the number of lanes, and prevailing habitat. Surveys were opportunistic and were conducted by car during conditions of good visibility. Over our 239 surveys and >16,500 km traveled, we recorded 1412 roadkills from 18 different mammal species (size ranged from Sciurus squirrels to the white-tailed deer, Odocolieus virginianus). The overall kill rate was 8.50 / 100 km. Four species were prone to collisions: the Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana), nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus), striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis), and northern raccoon (Procyon lotor). Together they accounted for approximately 85% (1198) of all roadkills. Mortality rate differed significantly between 2- and 4-lane roads (8.39 versus 7.79 / 100 km). Kill rates were significantly higher on paved versus unpaved roads (8.60 versus 3.65 / 100 km), but did not depend on whether a road was divided. Roadkills were higher in spring than in fall (1.5×), winter (1.4×), or summer (1.3×). The spring peak (in kills / 100 km) was driven chiefly by the armadillo (2.76 in spring/summer versus 0.73 in autumn/winter) and opossum (2.65 versus 1.47). By contrast, seasonality was dampened by a late winter/early spring peak in skunk mortalities, for which 41% occurred in the 6-week period of mid-February through March. The raccoon did not exhibit a strong seasonal pattern. Our data are consistent with dispersal patterns of these species. Our results underscore the high rate of highway mortality in the southern plains, as well as differences in seasonality and road type that contribute to mortality. Conservation and management efforts should focus on creating underpasses or using other means to reduce roadkill rates.     

Human Instability in Flood Flows1

Abstract: Loss of human stability in flood flows and consequent drowning are a high personal hazard. In this paper, we review past experimental work on human instability. The results of new experiments by the Flood Hazard Research Centre (FHRC) are also reported. These new results show that low depth/high velocity flood waters are more dangerous than suggested based on previous experimental work. It is discussed how human instability can be related to two physical mechanisms: moment instability (toppling) and friction instability (sliding). Comparison of the test results with these physical mechanisms suggests that the occurrence of instability in the tests by FHRC is related to friction instability. This mechanism appears to occur earlier than moment instability for the combination of shallow depth and high flow velocity. Those concerned to identify locations where high flood flows could be a threat to human life need to modify their hazard assessments accordingly.     

Life cycle assessment of waste paper management: The importance of technology data and system boundaries in assessing recycling and incineration

The significance of technical data, as well as the significance of system boundary choices, when modelling the environmental impact from recycling and incineration of waste paper has been studied by a life cycle assessment focusing on global warming potentials. The consequence of choosing a specific set of data for the reprocessing technology, the virgin paper manufacturing technology and the incineration technology, as well as the importance of the recycling rate was studied. Furthermore, the system was expanded to include forestry and to include fossil fuel energy substitution from saved biomass, in order to study the importance of the system boundary choices. For recycling, the choice of virgin paper manufacturing data is most important, but the results show that also the impacts from the reprocessing technologies fluctuate greatly. For the overall results the choice of the technology data is of importance when comparing recycling including virgin paper substitution with incineration including energy substitution. Combining an environmentally high or low performing recycling technology with an environmentally high or low performing incineration technology can give quite different results. The modelling showed that recycling of paper, from a life cycle point of view, is environmentally equal or better than incineration with energy recovery only when the recycling technology is at a high environmental performance level. However, the modelling also showed that expanding the system to include substitution of fossil fuel energy by production of energy from the saved biomass associated with recycling will give a completely different result. In this case recycling is always more beneficial than incineration, thus increased recycling is desirable. Expanding the system to include forestry was shown to have a minor effect on the results. As assessments are often performed with a set choice of data and a set recycling rate, it is questionable how useful the results from this kind of LCA are for a policy maker. The high significance of the system boundary choices stresses the importance of scientific discussion on how to best address system analysis of recycling, for paper and other recyclable materials.     

Using LCA to evaluate impacts and resources conservation potential of composting: A case study of the Asti District in Italy

Separate collection of municipal solid waste has overcome the 50% threshold in the Asti District in northern Italy, nearly one-third being composed of household and green organic waste. In order to address present and future solutions, it becomes therefore fundamental to assess the environmental performances of the current management of organic waste from separate collection. A from-gate-to-cradle life cycle assessment (LCA) model has been developed by expanding system boundaries, in order to carry out the assessment in the context of the whole waste management streamline. The environmental performances of an existing aerobic plant were made available, based on field measured data, by paying attention to the role and contribution of waste management subsystems. The need for actual and reliable data on materials and energy input, as well as gross and net gains from materials recovery, including benefits arising from use of compost in farming activities, was probably the major drawback that had to be faced. The study integrated the findings of different investigations from the literature with field measured data in order to obtain a more comprehensive framework representative of the area under study. The results may help public administrators to better understand the suitability of using LCA tools when dealing with solid waste management strategies.     

Scenario Modeling Potential Eco-Efficiency Gains from a Transition to Organic Agriculture: Life Cycle Perspectives on Canadian Canola,Corn, Soy,and Wheat Production

We used Life Cycle Assessment to scenario model the potential reductions in cumulative energy demand (both fossil and renewable) and global warming, acidifying, and ozone-depleting emissions associated with a hypothetical national transition from conventional to organic production of four major field crops [canola (Brassica rapa), corn (Zea mays), soy (Glycine max), and wheat (Triticum aestivum)] in Canada. Models of these systems were constructed using a combination of census data, published values, and the requirements for organic production described in the Canadian National Organic Standards in order to be broadly representative of the similarities and differences that characterize these disparate production technologies. Our results indicate that organic crop production would consume, on average, 39% as much energy and generate 77% of the global warming emissions, 17% of the ozone-depleting emissions, and 96% of the acidifying emissions associated with current national production of these crops. These differences were almost exclusively due to the differences in fertilizers used in conventional and organic farming and were most strongly influenced by the higher cumulative energy demand and emissions associated with producing conventional nitrogen fertilizers compared to the green manure production used for biological nitrogen fixation in organic agriculture. Overall, we estimate that a total transition to organic production of these crops in Canada would reduce national energy consumption by 0.8%, global warming emissions by 0.6%, and acidifying emissions by 1.0% but have a negligible influence on reducing ozone-depleting emissions.