Assessment Tools for Urban Catchments: Defining Observable Biological Potential1

Abstract: Urbanization represents a strong and increasingly more prevalent impact on stream quality worldwide. One of the characteristic effects of increased urbanization is a consistent decline in biological stream condition. The characterization of this biological degradation with increasing urbanization presents a number of advantages for the study and management of urban streams and catchments. In this paper, the limitation of biological condition with urbanization, called observed biological potential, is characterized. Using an urban intensity index and a biological index developed specifically for urban systems in the Baltimore, Maryland; Cleveland, Ohio; and San Jose, California regions, two principal techniques were compared (quantile regression and bin regression) to define observed biological potential along urban gradients. Quantile regression was selected as the preferable tool for describing observed biological potential given the consistency with which it can be applied and its statistical efficiency, however, bin quantile regression performed similarly. Having identified a numeric approximation of observed biological potential, two methods for identifying factors related to distance from potential as a way of identifying critical environmental factors affecting biological condition in urban areas were explored. The results of this work can be used for identifying benchmarks for urban stream biological condition, identifying limiting catchment characteristics, and prioritizing urban stream management efforts.     

对水泥企业生产环境负荷之浅析

基于生命周期理论,采用CNI环境影响评价方法对我国水泥生产的环境负荷进行了定量分析。结果表明：水泥生产的环境影响主要体现在温室效应、不可再生能源消耗和不可再生资源消耗,其环境负荷分别占对应环境影响类型世界总负荷的2.76％,2.34％和1.39％,2006年我国水泥生产的环境负荷约占世界总负荷的1.28％,其中,立窑生产工艺、湿法回转窑生产工艺和新型干法生产工艺的环境负荷分别为0.84％,0.12％和0.32％。通过行业结构调整,用新型干法生产工艺取代其他落后的生产工艺,可使我国水泥生产的环境负荷降至世界总负荷的1％左右。     

Fundamental Moral Attitudes to Animals and Their Role in Judgment: An Empirical Model to Describe Fundamental Moral Attitudes to Animals and Their Role in Judgment on the Culling of Healthy Animals During an Animal Disease Epidemic

In this paper, we present and defend the theoretical framework of an empirical model to describe people’s fundamental moral attitudes (FMAs) to animals, the stratification of FMAs in society and the role of FMAs in judgment on the culling of healthy animals in an animal disease epidemic. We used philosophical animal ethics theories to understand the moral basis of FMA convictions. Moreover, these theories provide us with a moral language for communication between animal ethics, FMAs, and public debates. We defend that FMA is a two-layered concept. The first layer consists of deeply felt convictions about animals. The second layer consists of convictions derived from the first layer to serve as arguments in a debate on animal issues. In a debate, the latter convictions are variable, depending on the animal issue in a specific context, time, and place. This variability facilitates finding common ground in an animal issue between actors with opposing convictions.     

区域性煤矿百万吨死亡率指标的宏观预测研究

为了对煤矿安全状况进行宏观预测,提出区域性煤矿安全状况评价指标体系并建立了以煤矿百万吨死亡率指标标征区域性煤矿安全状况的灰色预测模型。在对煤矿综合机械化采煤率、大型煤矿产量比例、原煤全员效率指标预测分析的基础上,利用多元回归法综合预测煤矿百万吨死亡率指标。实例计算证明:建立的预测模型具有输入数据少、建模简单、计算快捷等优点;客观地反映出区域性的煤矿安全状况;该模型可进行煤矿安全的短期预测,并为制定煤矿安全控制指标提供理论依据。     

A study of climate change and anthropogenic impacts in West Africa

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: During the last decades ecological conditions in West Africa have dramatically changed. Very evident is the climate change, which has resulted in a southward shift of the climate zones, e.g. a spread of the desert (Sahara) into the Sahelian zone. After the drought period of the early 1970s and 1980s, livestock density increased resulting in an intensification of grazing pressure. This anthropogenous phenomenon leads to similar landscape changes as those caused by the climate. Only very few investigations exist on vegetation dynamics, climate changes and land use changes for the Sudanian zone. The paper presents data on changes of precipitation, of land use, of the geographical range of species, and of the composition of the flora, which have to be regarded as proofs of the sahelisation of large areas of the Sudanian zone. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Area of investigation: Burkina Faso. Precipitation data analysis: precipitation data from 67 stations; time series analysis and geo-statistical spatial interpolation. Analysis of land use change: Landsat satellite MSS and ETM+ data, acquired for two different dates between 1972 and 2001 analyzed by the software ERDAS/IMAGINE version 8.6 and ArcView 3.2 with the Spatial Analyst extension. Intensive ground truthing (160 training areas). Inventory of the flora: based on the data of the Herbarium Senckenbergianum (FR) in Frankfurt, Germany, and of the herbarium of the university of Ouagadougou (OUA), Burkina Faso, as well as on various investigations on the vegetation of Burkina Faso carried out in the years 1990 to 2005 by the team of the senior author. Life form analysis of the flora: based on the inventory of permanent plots. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Precipitation: Remarkable latitudinal shift of isohyets towards the South translates to a general reduction of average rainfall in great parts of the country. The last decade (1990-1999) shows some improvement, however, the more humid conditions of the 1950's and 1960's are not yet established again. Landcover change: In the study region the extent of arable fields and young fallows increased during the last 30 years from 580 km(2) in 1972 to 2870 km(2) in 2001. This means an average land cover conversion rate of 0.9% per year for the 6 departments considered. Change of the distribution of Sahelian and Sudanian species: Several species, mentioned in older literature as strictly Sahelian, today also occur in the Sudanian zone. Parallel to the spread of former strictly Sahelian species into the Sudanian zone, some former Sahelo-Sudanian species have withdrawn from the Sahel. Changes of the life form spectra of the flora: Considering their life form spectra, the flora of heavily grazed and of protected areas in the Sudanian zone show great differences. On areas intensively grazed the percentage of therophytes is evidently higher than on protected areas. Just the opposite is true for the phanerophytes. Their percentage is higher on the protected area than on the grazed zones. At the first glance, it is obvious to link the changes in flora and vegetation with the climate changes that have occurred during the last five decades (decrease of annual precipitation). However, not only climatic conditions have changed, but also population has increased, the percentage of land intensively used for agriculture and pasturing has increased and the time for soil regeneration today is much shorter than it was some decades ago. Thus, the landscape of the Sudanian zone has become a more Sahelian character. A comparison of the flora of an intensively used area of the Sudanian zone with that of a protected area shows a remarkable change in the life form spectra. The spectrum of the intensively used area is almost identical with that of the typical Sahelian flora. This comparison shows that the anthropogenic influence plays a greater role in the sahelisation of the Sudanian zone than the climate change. CONCLUSION: Climate change and anthropogenic influence both, lead to a sahelisation of landscape and flora. Thus in many parts of the Sudanian zone of West Africa sahelisation phenomena will remain and even increase independently from the reestablishment of the more humid climate conditions of the 1950ies. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: In order to maintain some parts of the characteristic Sudanian landscape with its characteristic flora and vegetation, the number and size of protected areas should be augmented. For all protected areas it has to be ensured, that protection is reality, i.e. respected an understood by local people, not only fiction. As long as the enlargement of intensively used areas continues the sahelisation of flora, vegetation and landscape will continue too.     

基于灰建模的瓦斯含量多变量预测模型研究

研究了GM(1,N)、GM(0,N)瓦斯含量预测模型的数学原理,收集郑煤集团告成矿地质勘探期间及生产期间的瓦斯含量实测资料,获得16个可靠点,选取基岩厚度、新生界厚度、煤层厚度、煤层水分、煤层灰分、50m顶板含砂率6个因素作灰色建模预测的指标,分别建立了GM(1,6)和GM(0,6)瓦斯含量多变量预测模型。根据计算和评价结果,GM(1,6)和GM(0,6)瓦斯含量预测模型精度均能够满足工程精度的要求,说明利用灰色模型来预测瓦斯含量是可行的。由于前者精度略高于后者,故建议告成矿采用GM(1,6)模型来进行未知地区煤层瓦斯含量的预测。需要注意,由于模型没有考虑构造的影响,在实际预测时,还应根据构造对待预测区的影响关系和影响程度对模型的预测结果进行修正。     

Modeling the Effects of Potential Salinity Shifts on the Recovery of Striped Bass in the Savannah River Estuary,Georgia–South Carolina,United States

Increased salinity in spawning and nursery grounds in the Savannah River estuary was cited as the primary cause of a 97% decrease in adult striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and a concomitant 96% decrease in striped bass egg production. Restoration efforts focused on environmental remediation and stock enhancement have resulted in restored salinity patterns and increased egg and adult abundances. However, future water needs or harbor development may preclude further recovery by reducing freshwater inflow or increasing salinity intrusion. To assess the effect of potential changes in the salinity regime, we developed models relating discharge, tidal phase, and salinity to striped bass egg and early larval survival and re-cast these in a quantitative Bayesian belief network. The model indicated that a small upstream shift (≤1.67 km) in the salinity regime would have the least impact on striped bass early life history survival, whereas shifts >1.67 km would have progressively larger impacts, with a 8.33-km shift potentially reducing our estimated survival probability by >28%. Such an impact could have cumulative and long-term detrimental effects on the recovery of the Savannah River striped bass population. The available salinity data were collected during average and low flows, so our model represents some typical and some extreme conditions during a striped bass spawning season. Our model is a relatively simplistic, “first-order” attempt at evaluating potential effects of changes in the Savannah River estuarine salinity regime and points to areas of concern and potential future research.     

滑坡动态变形过程的综合研究方法

影响滑坡变形破坏过程的因素具有复杂性和多变性,要合理评价和预测滑坡的动态发展过程,深入的地质原型调查是基础,地质分析不仅能为其它分析方法的正确使用提供资料,而且能直接对滑坡的变形破坏发展过程作出定性的判断。在此基础上建立力学模型,采用数学力学理论进行定量计算和反演分析,可进一步从本质上去把握滑坡变形破坏的发展规律。本文通过介绍李家峡水电站Ⅱ号滑坡的研究实践,说明了采用定性地质分析与定量力学计算相结合的研究方法揭示滑坡变形破坏动态过程的有效性。     

深圳市纯电动泥头车减污降碳协同效益评价研究

新能源汽车替代传统燃油车是减缓能源与环境压力并如期实现“双碳”目标的重要途径,但在重型车辆、工程车等领域推广较为缓慢.深圳市自2019年开始推广使用纯电动泥头车,并计划到2025年新能源环卫、泥头车数量达到8000辆.为深入探究纯电动泥头车替代柴油泥头车所产生的减污降碳协同效益,本研究基于一手调研数据,采用生命周期评价方法并结合GREET模型,对比分析了两类泥头车在燃料周期、车辆周期和配套设施周期3个周期内的能耗、主要空气污染物及碳排放情况.结果表明,纯电动泥头车全生命周期内能耗较柴油泥头车可减少36.2%,主要污染物如NO_x、SO₂、VOC和PM_2.5降幅分别达81.3%、37.8%、29.0%和25.9%;温室气体(GHGs)排放强度减少14.4%,基准情境下2030年和2050年推广纯电动泥头车GHGs累计减排量分别为71.4万t和258.5万t.尽管节能减排效果显著,但其初始购置和售后维保成本过高是制约其推广的最主要因素,通过降低车辆及电池生产制造成本、提高充换电设施数量及售后维保能力等有望加快泥头车纯电动化.     

天津市基于新标准的空气质量预报模型效果评估

利用2015年环境空气质量监测数据,对天津市OPAQ空气质量统计预报模型预测效果进行验证评估。结果表明,模型对天津市AQI和PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、O_3、NO——2的预测结果与实测结果具有较好的趋势一致性,且预测时间越临近,拟合度越好,24 h预报的相关系数r全部达到0.8以上。对PM_(2.5)的预报性能明显优于PM_(10)、O_3和NO_2,PM_(2.5)平均值预测略呈正偏差,但重污染预测值偏低约15%;O_3和NO_2预测值呈明显负偏差,O_3峰值预测不足,NO_2预测值整体偏低,均以24 h预报趋势性最好,但负偏差最为突出。