基于可拓和组合赋权的泥石流危险性评价

基于可拓学物元理论,结合层次分析主观赋权法与灰色关联度客观赋权法,对评价因子进行组合赋权,避免单一赋权方法的片面性,建立泥石流危险性评价模型。影响泥石流危险性的因子有很多,通过现场实际调查,选取一次泥石流最大冲出量、发生频率、24 h最大降雨量等8个因子对泥石流进行危险性评价。运用该模型对卡拉地区7条泥石流沟进行危险性评价,评价结果与实际情况相吻合,表明此方法可为泥石流危险性评价提供参考。     

An Analysis of Young Driver Crash Types and the Associated Lifetime Care Cost in Victoria,Australia

Objective: The elevated crash involvement rate of young drivers is well documented. Given the higher crash risk of young drivers and the need for innovative policy and programs, it remains important to fully understand the type of crashes young drivers are involved in, and knowledge of the lifetime care cost of crashes can support effective policy development. The aim of this article is to document the number and type of young driver crashes, as well as the associated lifetime care cost over a 9-year period (2005–2013) in Victoria, Australia.

Methods: In Victoria, Australia, the Transport Accident Commission (TAC) has legislated responsibility for road safety and the care of persons injured in road crashes, irrespective of fault. TAC claims data for the period 2005–2013 were used to document the number and type of young driver crashes. Lifetime care costs (past and future payment liabilities) were calculated by Taylor Fry actuarial consultancy. License and population data were used to define the crash involvement rate of young drivers.

Results: Over the 9-year period, 16,817 claims were lodged to the TAC by drivers 18–25 years of age following a crash. There were 646 fewer drivers aged 18–25 killed and injured in 2013, compared to 2005, representing an unadjusted change of ?28.7% (?29.8% males; ?28.4% females). The total lifetime care cost of young drivers killed and injured in Victoria for the period 2005–2013 was estimated to be AU$634 million (US$493 million). Differences between males and females, single- and multivehicle crashes, and fatalities and injuries were found to be statistically significant. Run-off-road crashes and crashes from opposing direction were overrepresented in the lifetime care costs for young driver claimants. Twenty-eight injured drivers were classified as high-severity claims. These 28 claimants require additional long-term care, which was estimated to be AU$219 million; of these 28, 24 were male (85.7%). The long-term care costs for these 28 drivers (0.16%) accounts for 34.5% of the total lifetime care cost of all 18- to 25-year-old injured drivers.

Conclusions: By using no-fault lifetime care costs that account for medical and like expenses, rehabilitation, and social reintegration costs, a more accurate understanding of the cost of young driver crashes can be determined. Application of these costs to specific crash types highlights new priorities and opportunities for developing programs to reduce young driver crashes.     

基于TF-熵权法的矿井通风系统可靠性可拓评价

为准确评价煤矿通风系统可靠性,提高可靠性评价的客观性与准确性,有效防止因通风系统故障而引起的煤矿安全事故,提出基于三角模糊数(TF)-熵权法的矿井通风系统可靠性可拓评价模型,首先利用德尔菲法从通风动力、通风网络等6个方面,选取29个评价指标确定矿井通风系统可靠性评价指标体系;然后,通过三角模糊数与熵权法相结合的方式确定...     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban soils of Beijing: status, sources, distribution and potential risk

We studied the source, concentration, spatial distribution and health risk of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban soils of Beijing. The total mass concentration of 16 PAHs ranged from 93 to 13 141 μg kg⁻¹ with a mean of 1228 μg kg⁻¹. The contour map of soil PAH concentrations showed that the industrial zone, the historical Hutong district and the university district of Beijing have significantly higher concentrations than those in remainder of the city. The results of sources identification suggested that the primary sources of PAHs were vehicle exhaust and coal combustion and the secondary source was the atmospheric deposition of long-range transported PAHs. The incremental lifetime cancer risks (ILCRs) of exposing to PAHs in the urban soils of Beijing for adult were 1.77 × 10⁻⁶ and 2.48 × 10⁻⁵, respectively under normal and extreme conditions. For child, they were 8.87 × 10⁻⁷ and 6.72 × 10⁻⁶, respectively under normal and extreme conditions.     

Carbonyls in the metropolitan area of Mexico City: calculation of the total photolytic rate constants Kp(s(-1)) and photolytic lifetime (tau) of ambient formaldehyde and acetaldehyde

A great number of studies on the ambient levels of formaldehyde and other carbonyls in the urban rural and maritime atmospheres have been published because of their chemical and toxicological characteristics, and adverse health effects. Due to their toxicological effects, it was considered necessary to measure these compounds at different sites in the metropolitan area of Mexico City, and to calculate the total rate of photolytic constants and the photolytic lifetime of formaldehyde and acetaldehyde. Four sites were chosen. Sampling was carried out at different seasons and atmospheric conditions. The results indicated that formaldehyde was the most abundant carbonyl, followed by acetone and acetaldehyde. Data sets obtained from the 4 sites were chosen to calculate the total rate of photolysis and the photolytic lifetime for formaldehyde and acetaldehyde. Maximum photolytic rate values were obtained at the maximum actinic fluxes, as was to be expected.     

安全管理信息系统学的创建、内涵与外延

安全管理信息系统学作为一门新兴学科在我国快速的发展,但是尚未形成成熟的学科理论与学科体系。笔者探讨安全管理信息系统学创建和发展的必要性;对学科的内涵和外延进行深入的分析;指出安全科学、管理科学和信息科学是安全管理信息系统学的三大知识支撑学科;学科体系由安全信息资源管理、安全信息技术和安全管理信息系统开发这3个知识板块组成。最后,对安全管理信息系统学教育的现状和发展提出了一些评述和建议。     

Mechanism and kinetics study on the ozonolysis reaction of 2,3,7,8-TCDD in the atmosphere

The ozonolysis of 2,3,7,8-tetra-chlorodibenzo-p-dioxin(2,3,7,8-TCDD) is an efcient degradation way in the atmosphere. The ozonolysis process and possible reactions path of Criegee Intermediates with NO and H2 O are introduced in detail at the method of MPWB1K/6-31+G(d,p)//MPWB1K/6-311+G(3df,2p) level. In ozonolysis, H2O is an important source of OH radical formation and initiated the subsequent degradation reaction. The Rice-Ramsperger-Kassel-Marcus(RRKM) theory was applied to calculate rate constants with the temperature ranging from 200 to 600 K. The rate constant of reaction between 2,3,7,8-TCDD and O3 is 4.80 × 10 20cm3/(mole·sec) at 298 K and 760 Torr. The atmospheric lifetime of the reaction species was estimated according to rate constants, which is helpful for the atmospheric model study on the degradation and risk assessment of dioxin.     

贮存使用环境对导弹性能的影响机理

目的分析影响导弹性能的主要环境因素及影响机理。方法根据导弹的贮存条件和环境因素的重要性,分析影响导弹性能的主要环境因素,分析总结其影响机理。结果影响导弹性能的主要环境因素包括温度、湿度、振动与冲击、重力、气压和静电,其中温度的主要影响机理是引起力学性能、电器性能、气体和液体对容器的压力、化学反应速度的变化,湿度的影响机理是水膜、凝露的形成和产品的吸湿,振动与冲击的影响机理是疲劳损伤和极限破坏,重力影响固体发动机粘接界面的机理是药柱温度小于平衡温度引起的扯离应力,气压的影响机理是空气压力、空气密度和空气含氧量的变化,静电的影响机理是静电放电和静电引力。结论环境影响导弹性能的机理,对通过设计提高导弹的环境适应能力和使用环境控制都很重要。     

老经济开发区的环评经验

以益阳沅江市经济开发区扩区环评为例,围绕老经济开发区固有问题以及扩区的制约因素展开分析和评价,提出解决方案,找到发展和保护的平衡点。     

基于熵权物元可拓模型的黑河中游生态环境脆弱性评价

针对黑河中游生态环境特点,基于PSR模型,选取9项能反映其生态环境脆弱性而彼此之间相互独立的评价指标体系,采用物元可拓理论和熵权法构建生态环境脆弱性的综合评判模型,对黑河中游各地区生态环境脆弱性进行了评价.结果表明:民乐县和甘州区整体生态环境脆弱性相对较轻,嘉峪关市中等,肃州区、高台县和临泽县较重,山丹县最严重;各地区对不同评价指标的敏感程度也各不相同.评价结果符合当地实际情况.