事故状态下污染物排放对水环境影响的预测研究

对辽河油田欢喜岭采油厂在事故状态下污染物排放对大凌河水域环境的影响进行预测研究。计算了洪水淹没、油罐冒顶泄漏、油井井喷泄漏、联合站泄漏、管道泄漏、暴雨径流带走落地油等16种情景下对该河流水质的影响情况,并建立数学模型,进行情景模拟。研究结果表明,事故状态下对大凌河水质影响的次序由大到小依次为:洪水淹没、油罐冒顶泄漏、油井井喷泄漏、联合站泄漏、管道泄漏、暴雨径流。     

竹林关大柴沟大型泥石流的形成机理与发展趋势

通过对陕西省丹凤县竹林关镇大柴沟泥石流进行现场勘查分析,总结了泥石流的孕灾背景,揭示了泥石流的典型特征和基本物理力学参数,在此基础上,分别从泥石流的物质来源、形成环境、诱发条件等三大条件分析了泥石流的形成机理,归纳了大柴沟泥石流具有典型的滑坡激发性、周期暴发性、强烈致灾性等特点,对泥石流的危险性进行了现状分析和预测评价。结果表明:软硬相间的岩层和强烈的构造运动是造成岩体变形破碎的主要原因,为泥石流提供了丰富的物源,垂直高差较大、沟道狭窄为泥石流提供了良好的孕灾环境,百年一遇的暴雨是大柴沟泥石流形成的诱发条件,同时受暴雨影响,沟内产生多处浅表层滑坡堵塞沟道,为泥石流聚集了能量,以至形成规模更大、破坏性更强的泥石流。研究过程采用了实测计算与经验公式估算相结合的多种方法进行对比研究,也充分验证了经验公式的适用性。     

城市轨道交通噪声的声源特性研究进展

分析了城市轨道交通噪声的主要类型、基本特性、传播规律及其影响因素;综述了国内外城市轨道交通噪声的预测及测量分析技术的研究成果,并对其进行了总结比较,阐述了各种方法的特点、主要成就和局限;最后探讨了城市轨道交通噪声领域今后的研究方向和发展趋势,为解决城市轨道交通发展中的噪声问题提供了参考.     

金竹山土朱煤矿开采地表沉降规律与灰色预测模型研究

针对金竹山矿业公司土朱煤矿煤层赋存条件,依据采动理论的裂缝垂直分带模型,分析地表沉降和塌陷的机理;提出在采煤活动阶段应进行地表实际位移观测,经数据处理后得到地面沉降曲线,以确保地面人类活动的安全;在采煤活动后阶段则实施灰色预测地面沉降,即通过采煤活动阶段的地表实际观测数据为历史原始数据序列,建立灰色Logistic模型;并对采煤活动后阶段的地面沉降进行预测。精度检验表明:灰色Logistic模型预测精度高,利用该模型预测地面沉降可减少地面沉降监测经费和实时提供预警信息,以确保开采区域内人们生命财产安全。     

一种基于预测法的电磁兼容设计方法

文章以数模混合电路设计实践为基础,介绍了一种基于预测法的电磁兼容设计方法。先以电磁兼容测试理论为基础介绍数模混合电路设计中的电磁兼容方法,在以此方法建立电磁兼容设计模型,并通数模混合电路实践来检验和改进设计模型。     

Prediction of Streamflow Regime and Annual Runoff for Ungauged Basins Using a Distributed Monthly Water Balance Model1

Moore, R.D. (Dan), J.W. Trubilowicz, and J.M. Buttle, 2011. Prediction of Streamflow Regime and Annual Runoff for Ungauged Basins Using a Distributed Monthly Water Balance Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 32‐42. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00595.x Abstract: Prediction of streamflow in ungauged basins is a global challenge, but is particularly an issue in physiographically complex regions like British Columbia (BC), Canada. The objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of a simple water balance model that can be run using existing spatial datasets. The model was developed by modifying an existing monthly water balance model to account for interception loss from forest canopy, glacier melt, and evaporation from lakes. The model was run using monthly climate normals from the ClimateBC application, which have a horizontal resolution of 400 m. Each ClimateBC grid cell was classified as forest, open land, glacier or water surface based on provincial scale digital maps of biogeoclimatic zones, glaciers, and water. The output was monthly mean runoff from each grid cell. These values were integrated within the catchment boundaries for streams gauged by the Water Survey of Canada. Annual runoff was predicted with modest accuracy: after updating the predicted runoff by interpolating errors from neighboring gauged streams, the mean absolute error was 25.4% of the gauged value, and 52% of the streams had errors less than 20%. However, the model appears to be quite robust in distinguishing between pluvial, hybrid, and melt‐dominated hydroclimatic regimes, and therefore has promise as a tool for catchment classification.     

Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics1

Waite, Ian R., Jonathan G. Kennen, Jason T. May, Larry R. Brown, Thomas F. Cuffney, Kimberly A. Jones, and James L. Orlando, 2012. Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 570-583. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00632.x Abstract: We aggregated invertebrate data from various sources to assemble data for modeling in two ecoregions in Oregon and one in California. Our goal was to compare the performance of models developed using multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques with models developed using three relatively new techniques: classification and regression trees (CART), random forest (RF), and boosted regression trees (BRT). We used tolerance of taxa based on richness (RICHTOL) and ratio of observed to expected taxa (O/E) as response variables and land use/land cover as explanatory variables. Responses were generally linear; therefore, there was little improvement to the MLR models when compared to models using CART and RF. In general, the four modeling techniques (MLR, CART, RF, and BRT) consistently selected the same primary explanatory variables for each region. However, results from the BRT models showed significant improvement over the MLR models for each region; increases in R² from 0.09 to 0.20. The O/E metric that was derived from models specifically calibrated for Oregon consistently had lower R² values than RICHTOL for the two regions tested. Modeled O/E R² values were between 0.06 and 0.10 lower for each of the four modeling methods applied in the Willamette Valley and were between 0.19 and 0.36 points lower for the Blue Mountains. As a result, BRT models may indeed represent a good alternative to MLR for modeling species distribution relative to environmental variables.     

Application of Rosgen’s BANCS Model for NE Kansas and the Development of Predictive Streambank Erosion Curves1

Sass, Christopher K. and Tim D. Keane, 2012. Application of Rosgen’s BANCS Model for NE Kansas and the Development of Predictive Streambank Erosion Curves. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(4): 774‐787. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00644.x Abstract: Sedimentation of waterways and reservoirs directly related to streambank erosion threatens freshwater supply. This study sought to provide a tool that accurately predicts annual streambank erosion rates in NE Kansas. Rosgen (2001, 2006) methods were employed and 18 study banks were measured and monitored from 2007 through 2010 (May‐June). Bank profiles were overlaid to calculate toe pin area change due to erosional processes. Streambanks experienced varied erosion rates from similar Bank Erosion Hazard Index (BEHI)‐Near Bank Stress (NBS) combinations producing R² values of 0.77 High‐Very High BEHI rating and 0.75 Moderate BEHI rating regarding predictive erosion curves for NE Kansas. Moderate ratings demonstrated higher erosion rates than High‐Very High ratings and BEHI trend lines intersected at lower NBS ratings, suggesting a discrepancy in the fit of the model to conditions in the NE Kansas region. BEHI model factors were evaluated and assessed for additional influences exerted in the region. Woody vegetation adjacent to the stream seemed to provide the most variation in erosion rates. This study’s findings allowed us to calibrate and modify the existing BEHI model according to woody vegetation occurrence levels along streambanks with high clay content. Modifications regarding vegetation occurrence of the BEHI model was completed and the results of these modifications generated new curves resulting in R² values of 0.84 High‐Very High BEHI and 0.88 Moderate BEHI ratings.     

Urban land use,mobility and theory of science: exploring the potential for critical realism in empirical research

Academic discussion where the adequacy of positions within theory of science is illustrated by means of examples from empirical research studies seems to be an area of neglect. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to such a debate, using examples from investigations into the relationship between urban structure and travel behaviour. The main research question of these investigations was whether, and to what extent, urban structural conditions are influencing residents' transportation activity. In other words, is there a causal relationship between urban structure and travel behaviour? Furthermore, we asked whether results from studies of the relationship between land use and transport can provide a basis for predictions about the likely consequences of alternative land-use strategies. The methodology and empirical findings of the studies are discussed in the light of the theory of science position labelled ‘critical realism’, in an attempt to relate theory of science to empirical research, but also in order to contribute to the discussion of the usefulness of this specific approach. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

电厂建设运行中的水土流失预测与水土保持设计

在燃煤电厂建设运行的同时,将引起一系列的水土流失问题.以四川国电金堂电厂二期扩建工程为例,简要说明项目区水土流失预测的内容和方法,并在其基础上对可能产生的水土流失和危害进行了分析,同时介绍了建设期和运行期采取的综合防治措施,为类似工程的水土保持提供借鉴.