气候变化和人类活动对东部沿海地区NDVI变化的影响分析

植被是陆地生态系统的重要组成部分,特别是在人类活动密集地区,良好的植被覆盖对于维持区域生态环境稳定、增进居民生活福祉和促进社会经济可持续发展意义重大.基于归一化植被指数(NDVI)、气温、降水和太阳辐射数据,采用趋势分析、偏相关分析和残差分析等方法,探究了1982～2019年中国东部沿海地区NDVI时空变化特征及其与气候因子的关系,评估了气候因素和人类活动等非气候因素对NDVI变化的影响.结果表明：(1)1982～2019年研究区NDVI变化趋势具有明显区域性、阶段性和季节性差异,就区域平均而言,2000年以前(第一阶段)的生长季NDVI比2001年以后(第二阶段)增加更快,而两阶段春季NDVI增加速率均为各季节最快;(2)同一阶段NDVI与各气候因子的关系在不同季节存在差异,而同一季节NDVI的主要气候控制因子在不同阶段也不一致,并且NDVI与气候因子的关系具有很大空间差异.总体上,1982～2019年研究区生长季NDVI的增加与气温的持续上升关系紧密,第二阶段降水和太阳辐射的增加也产生了积极作用;(3)相比于人类活动等非气候因素的影响,气候变化对近38年来研究区生长季NDVI变化的...     

基于可解释性机器学习的城市O3驱动因素挖掘

受前体物排放和气象条件等因素共同驱动,大气臭氧(O₃)已成为影响城市夏季环境空气质量的主要污染物.目前物理化学机制驱动的演绎模型在进行O₃污染解析时需要的模型参数众多,运算时效性较差;数据驱动的归纳模型运算效率高,但存在可解释性差等问题.通过建立可解释性数据驱动的Correlation-ML-SHAP模型,Correlation模块挖掘O₃浓度关联影响因素,机器学习ML模块耦合可解释性SHAP模块计算各驱动因素对O₃浓度的影响贡献,实现对驱动因素的定量解析,并以晋城市2021年夏季O₃污染过程为例开展应用研究.结果表明,Correlation-ML-SHAP模型能够挖掘并利用强驱动因素模拟O₃浓度和量化影响贡献,其中ML模块采用XGBoost模型模拟准确度最佳. 2021年夏季晋城市O₃污染强驱动因素为：气温、日照强度、湿度和前体物排放水平,贡献权重为：32.1%、 21.3%、 16.5%和15.6%,其中气温、日照强度和前体物排放...     

鄱阳湖典型河湖交汇区浮游植物现状分析

鄱阳湖典型河湖交汇区（尾闾区）易受人类频繁活动的影响,属于敏感区且是蓝藻水华易暴发区域.为探究鄱阳湖典型河湖交汇区浮游植物群落结构的差异性及相关驱动机制,于2019年至2020年1月（枯水期）、4月（涨水期）、7月（丰水期）和10月（退水期）对鄱阳湖典型河湖交汇区7个采样点位和鄱阳湖河流中段6个采样点位以及主湖区1个采样点位水质状况和浮游植物进行野外调查.结果表明,鄱阳湖典型河湖交汇区浮游植物共有7门64属,浮游植物生物量和相对丰度以硅藻和蓝藻为主.鄱阳湖典型河湖交汇区生物量和丰度东部总体上高于西部,河湖交汇区生物量和丰度高于河流中段.湖区和河湖交汇区蓝藻门优势度较大,河流中段硅藻门优势度较大.蒙特卡罗检验结果显示：总氮（TN）、总磷（TP）、正磷酸盐（PO₄^3--P）、水深（WD）、水温（WT）和透明度（SD）是影响浮游植物群落分布的显著相关环境因子.冗余分析（RDA）结果显示,鄱阳湖西部典型河湖交汇区受水化因子（TN、TP和PO₄^3--P）作用更明显,东部典型河湖交汇区水文因子（WT、WD和SD）影响更为显著.鄱阳湖典型河湖交汇区浮游植物影响因子具有季节性,冬季受水化因子影响较大,夏季受水文因子影响较大.     

石家庄市土壤中喹诺酮类抗生素时空分布及其风险评估

由于喹诺酮类(QNs)药物在人类医学中的重要性,世界卫生组织将其列为“最重要的抗菌药物”.鉴于此,为阐明土壤中喹诺酮类抗生素时空分布特征及其风险,分别于2020年9月(秋季)和2021年6月(夏季)采集了18份表层土壤样品,并采用高效液相色谱串联质谱法(HPLC-MS/MS)分析测定了土壤样品中的QNs抗生素含量,明晰了QNs时空分布特征及其环境影响因子;并采用风险商值法(RQ)进行了QNs生态风险和抗性风险评估.结果表明：(1)由2020年9月(秋季)至2021年6月(夏季), QNs含量平均值呈现下降趋势[秋季和夏季ω(QNs)平均值分别为94.88μg·kg^-1和44.46μg·kg^-1];中部(S9～S15)土壤中QNs含量最高而其他区域较低;(2)土壤中粉粒平均占比并无显著变化,而黏粒和砂粒平均占比分别呈升高和下降趋势;总磷(TP)、氨氮(NH⁺₄-N)和硝氮(NO^-₃-N)含量平均值呈下降趋势;(3)相关分析结果表明,QNs含量与土壤粒径、亚硝...     

中国碳排放及影响因素的市域尺度分析

评估区域碳排放及其与社会经济状况的关系对于制定碳减排措施至关重要.以中国339个地级及以上城市(不含新疆部分城市和港澳台地区)为研究对象,探究了非化石能源占比、土地开发度、常住人口城镇化率、第二产业占比、人均GDP和人均建设用地面积对人均CO₂排放量的影响.通过构建模拟人均CO₂排放量的贝叶斯信念网络,识别各因素对人均CO₂排放量的全局影响;采用多尺度地理加权回归模型,分析各因素对人均CO₂排放量的局部影响.结果表明：(1)2020年,中国地级及以上城市人均CO₂排放量呈现出由南向北递增,东部沿海向内陆递减的格局.(2)从全局来看,人均CO₂排放量对各因素的敏感性从高到低依次为：人均建设用地面积>人均GDP>常住人口城镇化率>土地开发度>第二产业占比>非化石能源占比.(3)从局部来看,各因素与人均CO₂排放量的空间关系方向与全局关系一致,关系强度上存在空间异质性.(4)清洁能源、脱碳技术、土地节约集约利用...     

First trimester maternal serum placenta growth factor (PIGF)concentrations in pregnancies with fetal trisomy 21 or trisomy 18

Placenta growth factor (PIGF), an angiogenic factor belonging to the vascular endothelial growth factor family, pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) and free β-human chorionic gonadotrophin (β-hCG) were measured in maternal serum from 45 pregnancies with trisomy 21, 45 with trisomy 18 and 493 normal controls at 10–13 completed weeks of gestation. In the normal pregnancies maternal serum PIGF levels increased exponentially with gestation. The median multiple of the median (MoM) PIGF concentration in the trisomy 21 group (1.26 MoM) was significantly higher (p<0.0001) than in the control group (1.00 MoM). In the trisomy 18 group the median PIGF was lower (0.889 MoM) but this did not quite reach significance (p=0.064). The corresponding median MoM values for PAPP-A were 1.00 MoM for the controls, 0.49 MoM for trisomy 21 and 0.16 MoM for trisomy 18. The median MoM values for free β-hCG were 1.00 MoM for the controls, 2.05 MoM for trisomy 21 and 0.38 MoM for trisomy 18. In the control group there was a small but significant correlation of PIGF with free β-hCG (r=+0.1024) and PAPP-A (r=+0.2288). In the trisomy 18 group there was a significant association between PIGF and free β-hCG (r=+0.2629) but not with PAPP-A (r=+0.0038). In the trisomy 21 group there was a small but significant association with PAPP-A (r=+0.1028) but not with free β-hCG (r=+0.0339). The separation of affected and unaffected pregnancies in maternal serum PIGF is small, and therefore it is unlikely that measurement of PIGF would improve screening for these abnormalities provided by the combination of fetal nuchal translucency and maternal serum PAPP-A and free β-hCG. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

崇明东滩不同部位的季节性沉积研究

2002年4月至2003年4月，通过对崇明东滩南部、中部和北部的标志桩观测以及实地观测分析，发现崇明东滩在一年中不同季节冲淤变化过程存在很大差异：春季到夏季，南部以冲刷为主，中部和北部以淤积为主；夏季到秋季，南部和中部以淤积为主，北部表现为冲刷；秋季到冬季，南部、中部和北部都以冲刷为主；头一年冬季到次年春季，南部和北部以淤积为主，中部则表现为冲刷。在同一观测路线上，不同季节高、中、低潮滩冲淤也存在一定差异。通过对沉积物粒度、水体含沙量等指标的测试，并借助潮差等资料，探究了影响潮滩季节性沉积的因素，发现潮滩季节性沉积与潮滩基础地貌、水体含沙量、水动力、潮流等有密切关系；但在不同部位不同季节，各因素对潮滩冲淤影响程度各不相同。     

An assessment of heavy-metal contamination in surface sediments of the Suez Gulf using geoaccumulation indexes and statistical analysis

An assessment of marine pollution due to metals was made in the Suez Gulf based on surface costal sediment collected from 18 locations along the Gulf. The samples were dried and acid-digested, and the metal contents (Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn) were determined using a flame atomic absorption spectrophotometer (air-acetylene) with deuterium background correction. An evaluation of the heavy-metal pollution status of the Gulf was carried out using enrichment factors (EF) and geo-accumulation Indexes (I_geo). Also, heavy-metal concentrations in Suez Gulf sediments were evaluated using the Effect Range-Low (ERL) and the Effect Range-Median (ERM). The results of a Spearman correlation and factor and cluster analysis of the heavy metals analysed in the collected sediment were discussed. The main source of contamination is offshore oil field and industrial wastes, which arise due to the ineffective and inefficient operation equipments, illegal discharge and lack of supervision, and prosecution of offenders.     

氨精制产品质量影响因素及改进措施

阐述了浓氨水循环洗涤法脱硫工艺原理，原则流程，开工、运行过程中存在的问题及解决方案，影响液氨产品质量因素及采取的措施，以及对原林源石化公司含硫法水汽提-氨精制系统不足提出的改进建议。     

Economic Underdevelopment And Sustainable Development In The World:Conditioning Factors,Problems And Opportunities

This paper deals with the various factors that condition underdevelopment in the world. It suggests some alternatives and points out the potential opportunities that both the developed and the underdeveloped world will have in the coming years to change the gloomy prospects that we see today. The present paper outlines the trends in historical priorities in development, changing as they pass from economic development to social development to ecological conservation – the three pillars of Sustainable Development.The paper analyses the importance of geography, a very relevant and often neglected conditioning factor. Also, it analyses the role of socio-economic conditioning factors like political immaturity, demographics, land ownership and external debt.Furthermore, the current opportunities for economic take-off are presented, from cash surpluses to low interest rates, from natural resource management to tourism or migration, from the Information Revolution to liberalisation of agricultural markets. Current obstacles are also analysed. The paper, on the basis of current facts and figures, reaches the conclusion that there is a structural need for sustained development aid for most poor countries, but it must be distributed in a more rational way.Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.