Measuring biological diversity

The diversity of a set of species refers to the joint dissimilarity of the species in the set. This paper discusses the measurement of diversity from the set of pairwise distances between the species in the set. A measure called the effective number of species is developed from a non-parametric probability inequality and is shown to have a simple interpretation in terms of comparing linear experiments.     

Determining the risk of driver-at-fault events associated with common distraction types using naturalistic driving data

Introduction: Studies thus far have focused on automobile accidents that involve driver distraction. However, it is hard to discern whether distraction played a role if fault designation is missing because an accident could be caused by an unexpected external event over which the driver has no control. This study seeks to determine the effect of distraction in driver-at-fault events. Method: Two generalized linear mixed models, one with at-fault safety critical events (SCE) and the other with all-cause SCEs as the outcomes, were developed to compare the odds associated with common distraction types using data from the SHRP2 naturalistic driving study. Results: Adjusting for environment and driver variation, 6 of 10 common distraction types significantly increased the risk of at-fault SCEs by 20-1330%. The three most hazardous sources of distraction were handling in-cabin objects (OR = 14.3), mobile device use (OR = 2.4), and external distraction (OR = 1.8). Mobile device use and external distraction were also among the most commonly occurring distraction types (10.1% and 11.0%, respectively). Conclusions: Focusing on at-fault events improves our understanding of the role of distraction in potentially avoidable automobile accidents. The in-cabin distraction that requires eye-hand coordination presents the most danger to drivers’ ability in maintaining fault-free, safe driving. Practical Applications: The high risk of at-fault SCEs associated with in-cabin distraction should motivate the smart design of the interior and in-vehicle information system that requires less visual attention and manual effort.     

初始压力对连通容器甲烷-空气混合物泄爆压力的影响

建立球形容器与管道、2个球形容器与管道组成的2种形式的连通容器试验装置,研究初始压力对连通容器甲烷-空气混合物泄爆压力的影响。结果表明:连通容器内泄爆超压随初始压力增加而增大,并与初始压力近似成线性关系;对于2个球形容器与管道组成的连通容器,起爆容器的泄爆超压始终小于传爆容器;泄爆方式和点火方式对连通容器泄爆超压有较大影响,大容器点火时,2个容器的泄爆压力差随初始压力增加而增大,但小容器点火时,2个容器的泄爆压力差随初始压力的增加变化较小;初始压力对不同结构和尺寸的连通容器的泄爆压力的影响不同,当令初始压力对大容器点火时,小容器内泄爆压力受影响最大,而当对单球形容器与管道组成的连通容器的小容器点火时,小容器内泄爆压力受影响最小。     

Identifying factors affecting the safety of mid-block bicycle lanes considering mixed 2-wheeled traffic flow

Objective: Electric bikes (e-bikes) have been one of the fastest growing trip modes in Southeast Asia over the past 2 decades. The increasing popularity of e-bikes raised some safety concerns regarding urban transport systems. The primary objective of this study was to identify whether and how the generalized linear regression model (GLM) could be used to relate cyclists' safety with various contributing factors when riding in a mid-block bike lane. The types of 2-wheeled vehicles in the study included bicycle-style electric bicycles (BSEBs), scooter-style electric bicycles (SSEBs), and regular bicycles (RBs).

Methods: Traffic conflict technology was applied as a surrogate measure to evaluate the safety of 2-wheeled vehicles. The safety performance model was developed by adopting a generalized linear regression model for relating the frequency of rear-end conflicts between e-bikes and regular bikes to the operating speeds of BSEBs, SSEBs, and RBs in mid-block bike lanes.

Results: The frequency of rear-end conflicts between e-bikes and bikes increased with an increase in the operating speeds of e-bikes and the volume of e-bikes and bikes and decreased with an increase in the width of bike lanes. The large speed difference between e-bikes and bikes increased the frequency of rear-end conflicts between e-bikes and bikes in mid-block bike lanes. A 1% increase in the average operating speed of e-bikes would increase the expected number of rear-end conflicts between e-bikes and bikes by 1.48%. A 1% increase in the speed difference between e-bikes and bikes would increase the expected number of rear-end conflicts between e-bikes/bikes by 0.16%.

Conclusions: The conflict frequency in mid-block bike lanes can be modeled using generalized linear regression models. The factors that significantly affected the frequency of rear-end conflicts included the operating speeds of e-bikes, the speed difference between e-bikes and regular bikes, the volume of e-bikes, the volume of bikes, and the width of bike lanes. The safety performance model can help better understand the causes of crash occurrences in mid-block bike lanes.     

水源水消毒副产物生成势与UV254/DOC的相关性研究

使用XAD-4和XAD-8树脂对宜兴3个水源原水中DOM进行亲疏水性分类,采用优化方法测定分类水样的DBPFP,并进行DBPFP与DOM量化指标之间的相关性分析,以确定实际生产过程DBPs生成量的主要影响因素.由三维荧光光谱图得到3个水源原水DOM组成差异较大,水质区别明显.由亲疏水性分类分析发现原水中疏水性和亲水性DOM含量较高,疏水性DOM水样的DBPFP大于原水,得到水样的DBPFP主要取决于DOM与消毒剂反应产生DBPs的效率,而不是DOM的量.引入UV_(254)/DOC这个指标,发现不同分类水样UV_(254)/DOC的差异情况与其DBPFP相吻合,对两者进行回归分析,发现水样THMFP和DHAAFP与UV_(254)/DOC之间存在明显的线性关系,线性可决系数R2分别为0.89和0.85.因此研究减小原水UV_(254)/DOC的技术工艺对于控制给水中DBPs浓度具有重要意义.     

气象要素对气溶胶光学厚度估算PM2.5的影响

地面监测得到的近地面细颗粒物PM_(2.5)浓度较为精确,但数据覆盖范围相对较小,卫星遥感反演的气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)数据可以反映污染物浓度分布,具有范围大且速度快的特点,因此,大多数学者通过建立PM_(2.5)-AOD模型来实现卫星遥感监测PM_(2.5)浓度,并通过引入气象要素来优化模型.然而,气象要素的选择与引入往往对模型的精度有较大的影响,如何有效地选择对PM_(2.5)浓度影响较大的气象要素一直是PM_(2.5)-AOD模型中的关键问题.因此,本文基于华东地区2014—2015年的MODIS AOD和地面监测站的PM_(2.5)浓度数据,结合再分析气象资料,利用多元逐步线性回归方法建立PM_(2.5)-AOD模型,从由特定时刻、高度上的气象要素与随时间、高度变化的气象要素组成的气象要素集中,筛选出对因变量PM_(2.5)浓度有显著影响的关键气象要素.结果表明:在地域与季节双重尺度下的PM_(2.5)-AOD模型精度更高;相较于特定时刻高度的气象要素,随时间和高度变化的气象要素对PM_(2.5)-AOD模型的影响更为显著;在地域与季节双重尺度下,1000～850 hPa经向风速差、世界时0:00—6:00近地面温度差、850～600 hPa温度差、6:00边界层高度、12:00—18:00近地面压强差、1000～850 hPa温度差对模型影响较大,但应依据不同季节和不同地区的具体影响程度作为选择标准.     

Source apportionment of PM2.5 light extinction in an urban atmosphere in China

Haze in China is primarily caused by high pollution of atmospheric fine particulates (PM_2.5). However, the detailed source structures of PM_2.5 light extinction have not been well established, especially for the roles of various organic aerosols, which makes haze management lack specified targets. This study obtained the mass concentrations of the chemical compositions and the light extinction coefficients of fine particles in the winter in Dongguan, Guangdong Province, using high time resolution aerosol observation instruments. We combined the positive matrix factor (PMF) analysis model of organic aerosols and the multiple linear regression method to establish a quantitative relationship model between the main chemical components, in particular the different sources of organic aerosols and the extinction coefficients of fine particles with a high goodness of fit (R² = 0.953). The results show that the contribution rates of ammonium sulphate, ammonium nitrate, biomass burning organic aerosol (BBOA), secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and black carbon (BC) were 48.1%, 20.7%, 15.0%, 10.6%, and 5.6%, respectively. It can be seen that the contribution of the secondary aerosols is much higher than that of the primary aerosols (79.4% versus 20.6%) and are a major factor in the visibility decline. BBOA is found to have a high visibility destroying potential, with a high mass extinction coefficient, and was the largest contributor during some high pollution periods. A more detailed analysis indicates that the contribution of the enhanced absorption caused by BC mixing state was approximately 37.7% of the total particle absorption and should not be neglected.     

Hierarchical spatial modeling for estimation of population size

Estimation of population size has traditionally been viewed from a finite population sampling perspective. Typically, the objective is to obtain an estimate of the total population count of individuals within some region. Often, some stratification scheme is used to estimate counts on subregions, whereby the total count is obtained by aggregation with weights, say, proportional to the areas of the subregions. We offer an alternative to the finite population sampling approach for estimating population size. The method does not require that the subregions on which counts are available form a complete partition of the region of interest. In fact, we envision counts coming from areal units that are small relative to the entire study region and that the total area sampled is a very small proportion of the total study area. In extrapolating to the entire region, we might benefit from assuming that there is spatial structure to the counts. We implement this by modeling the intensity surface as a realization from a spatially correlated random process. In the case of multiple population or species counts, we use the linear model of coregionalization to specify a multivariate process which provides associated intensity surfaces hence association between counts within and across areal units. We illustrate the method of population size estimation with simulated data and with tree counts from a Southwestern pinyon-juniper woodland data set.     

我国丹顶鹤自然保护区网络设计

针对原有丹顶鹤保护区规划缺乏系统设计思想,保护区面临严重的生境安全这一问题,根据维持生态系统地域完整性和生态过程完整性的原则,采用迭代法和整数规划2种方法,以高、中适宜性湿地面积占各自湿地类型总面积70%和60%为保护目标,研究了丹顶鹤自然保护区的网络设计,提出了丹顶鹤自然保护区网络的设计方案。