基于TLSER和QSPR关系预测PAHs和PCBs的LDPE膜-空气分配系数

有机污染物在被动采样材料与环境介质之间的平衡分配系数(K_P),是测定环境中有机污染物浓度的重要参数,但K_P值大部分都需要经过繁琐的实验测定获取,无法逐个测定数量繁多的污染物,因此需开发一种预测K_P值的方法。为此,搜集整理了一些多环芳香烃(PAHs)和多氯联苯(PCBs)的低密度聚乙烯(LDPE)-空气分配系数(K_PA)的实测值,基于理论线性溶解能(TLSER)和定量结构性质关系(QSPR),利用逐步多元线性回归(MLR)分别构建了预测K_PA值的模型。模型的决定系数R2adj分别为0.927和0.956,交叉验证系数Q2LOO分别为0.915和0.946,外部系数Q2ext分别为0.913和0.960。结果表明,2种模型具有良好的拟合优度、稳健性和预测能力,并解释了模型的机理。所构建的2种模型均可用来预测应用域内有机污染物的LDPE膜-空气分配系数。     

突发事件下城市群应急医疗床位共享建模

为给突发事件下城市群应急医疗床位共享提供理论依据,针对突发事件下城市群应急医疗床位共享问题,阐述突发事件下城市群应急医疗床位共享的必要性和可行性,并运用Multi-Hub理论,建立应急医疗床位在城市群集中的优化网络模型,并分析其内涵。在此基础上,采用基于层次分析法的线性回归方法,对多出救点、单个资源、多受灾点的应急医疗床位共享进行优化与讨论,并采用排队分配原则进行应急医疗床位具体去向的落实。研究结果表明:基于Multi-Hub理论的应急医疗床位区域集中优化模型与基于层次分析法的线性规划应急医疗床位调配优化模型,对突发事件下城市群应急医疗床位的共享具有优化和指导作用,能够提高突发事件下城市群应急医疗床位共享的效率,排队分配法能够在不超过医院容纳限度的前提下,保障应急救援的有序性和及时性。     

A heuristic approach to predicting water beetle diversity in temporary and fluctuating waters

An understanding of the causal mechanisms and processes that shape macroinvertebrate communities at a local scale has important implications for the management and conservation of freshwater biodiversity. Here we compare the performance of linear and non-linear statistics to explore diversity-environment relationships using data from 76 temporary and fluctuating ponds in two regions of southern England. We focus on aquatic beetle assemblages, which have been shown to be excellent surrogates of wider freshwater macroinvertebrate diversity. Ponds in the region contained a rich coleopteran fauna, totaling 68 species, which provided an excellent model system with which to compare the performance of two non-linear procedures (artificial neural networks—ANNs and generalised additive models—GAMs) and one more traditional linear approach (Multiple linear regression—MLR) to modelling diversity-environment relationships. Of all approaches employed, the best fit was obtained using an ANN model with only four input variables (conductivity, turbidity, magnesium concentration and depth). This model accounted for 82% of the observed variability in Shannon diversity index across ponds. In contrast, the best GAM and MLR models only explained 50% and 14% of this variation, respectively. Contribution profile analysis of conductivity, turbidity, magnesium concentration and depth, obtained from the best fit ANN through a hierarchical cluster analysis, allowed the identification of direct and proxy effects in relation to the environmental variables measured in this study. In each case, distinct clusters of ponds were identified in contribution profile analysis, suggesting that ponds across the two regions fall into a number of discrete groups, whose beetle faunas respond in subtly yet significantly different ways to key environmental variables. Aquatic coleopteran diversity in ponds in the two regions appears to be driven at a local scale by changes in relatively few physicochemical gradients, which are related to diversity in a clearly non-linear manner.     

Air‐Water Temperature Relationships in the Trout Streams of Southeastern Minnesota's Carbonate‐Sandstone Landscape

Carbonate‐sandstone geology in southeastern Minnesota creates a heterogeneous landscape of springs, seeps, and sinkholes that supply groundwater into streams. Air temperatures are effective predictors of water temperature in surface‐water dominated streams. However, no published work investigates the relationship between air and water temperatures in groundwater‐fed streams (GWFS) across watersheds. We used simple linear regressions to examine weekly air‐water temperature relationships for 40 GWFS in southeastern Minnesota. A 40‐stream, composite linear regression model has a slope of 0.38, an intercept of 6.63, and R² of 0.83. The regression models for GWFS have lower slopes and higher intercepts in comparison to surface‐water dominated streams. Regression models for streams with high R² values offer promise for use as predictive tools for future climate conditions. Climate change is expected to alter the thermal regime of groundwater‐fed systems, but will do so at a slower rate than surface‐water dominated systems. A regression model of intercept vs. slope can be used to identify streams for which water temperatures are more meteorologically than groundwater controlled, and thus more vulnerable to climate change. Such relationships can be used to guide restoration vs. management strategies to protect trout streams.     

线性规划法计算工业区大气承载力的探讨

分析了目前我国常用的模拟法、线性规划法和A-P值法三种大气承载力计算方法各自的缺点和局限性,探讨了线性规划法在工业园区规划环评大气承载力计算中的应用。以福建省某石化工业园区为实例,采用线性规划法计算了大气环境对SO2的承载力并用模拟法进行验证,计算结果10846t/a与模拟法结果13141t/a吻合性较好,表明线性规划法是计算区域大气承载力的科学可行的方法。     

Developing a fuzzy linear programming model for locating recovery facility in a closed loop supply chain

In this research a closed loop supply chain is designed which incorporates reverse logistics and forward logistic system simultaneously. In the design of reverse logistic system, recovery options are embedded in traditional supply chain for treating returned products. The recovery system includes collection centres, remanufacturing plants and disposal centres. Since the product return is supply driven, there is an uncertainty about it. In the proposed configuration for closed loop supply chain, the optimised configuration for supply chain in terms of locating recovery plants is developed. Accordingly, a fuzzy mixed integer linear programming model develops to deal with the uncertainty of returning products by customers. A general-purpose solver (LINGO 8.0) and a Meta heuristic approach (genetics algorithm) are implemented to solve the proposed model. The answers are compared by defining indexes and then the optimal answer, configuration and variables are identified. This solution will suggest a new design of supply chain network in which waste of materials is minimised and the new raw materials are necessary only when the used products may not be recovered by recovery options.     

基于遗传算法的支持向量机预测有机物自燃点的研究

根据定量构效关系(QSPR)原理,研究自燃点(AIT)与其分子结构间的内在定量关系。以265种有机化合物作为样本集,随机选择238种作为训练集,27种作为测试集,用遗传算法(GA)进行变量选择,分别建立多元线性回归(MLR)模型和支持向量机(SVM)模型研究有机物的自燃点与其分子结构间的关系。通过分析,发现造成模型预测效果不佳的原因是试验数据本身存在问题。通过对2个模型的比较,结果为GA-SVM模型明显优于GA-MLR模型,说明自燃点与其分子结构间具有很强的非线性关系。     

A SPATIAL LINEAR PROGRAM FOR OPTIMALLY SCHEDULING FOREST MANAGEMENT TO MEET STORMFLOW OBJECTWES1

ABSTRACT: A spatial linear program that strategically arranges and schedules forest treatments so as to meet peak stormflow objectives is formulated and demonstrated. The approach uses simulated spatial routing of stormflows nested as short‐term time schedules within longer‐term forest planning time periods. A simple case example is used to demonstrate the formulation and explore its spatial sensitivity.     

多因素作用下同庭湖洪水调蓄量的变化

用实测资料分析比较了出口水位31．0m时,洞庭湖调蓄量的变化趋势及影响调蓄量的各种因素。用多元线性回归方法建立了调蓄量经验公式,并用该公式计算分析了各因素对调蓄量变化的影响。结果表明,该公式能够较全面地反映调蓄量变化的原因,且能够近似区分淤积和围垦对调蓄量的影响。     

Impact of atrazine and nitrogen fertilizers on the sorption of chlorotoluron in soil and model sorbents

Sorption of chlorotoluron in ammonium sulfate, urea and atrazine multi-solutes system was investigated by batch experiments. The results showed application of nitrogen fertilizers to the soil could affect the behavior of chlorotoluron. At the same concentration of N, sorption of chlorotoluron decreased as the concentration of atrazine increased on the day 0 and 6 in soil, respectively. The sorption of chlorotoluron increased from 0 to 6 d when soils were preincubated with deionized water, ammonium sulfate and urea solution for 6 d. That indicated incubation time was one of the most important factors for the sorption of chlorotoluron in nitrogen fertilizers treatments. The individual sorption isotherms of chlorotoluron in rubbery polymer and silica were strictly linear in single solute system, but there were competition sorption between pesticides or between pesticides and nitrogen fertilizers. That indicated the sorption taken place by concurrent solid-phase dissolution mechanism and sorption on the interface of water-organic matter or water-mineral matter.