Shifting elasmobranch community assemblage at Cocos Island—an isolated marine protected area

Fishing pressure has increased the extinction risk of many elasmobranch (shark and ray) species. Although many countries have established no‐take marine reserves, a paucity of monitoring data means it is still unclear if reserves are effectively protecting these species. We examined data collected by a small group of divers over the past 21 years at one of the world's oldest marine protected areas (MPAs), Cocos Island National Park, Costa Rica. We used mixed effects models to determine trends in relative abundance, or probability of occurrence, of 12 monitored elasmobranch species while accounting for variation among observers and from abiotic factors. Eight of 12 species declined significantly over the past 2 decades. We documented decreases in relative abundance for 6 species, including the iconic scalloped hammerhead shark (Sphyrna lewini) (?45%), whitetip reef shark (Triaenodon obesus) (?77%), mobula ray (Mobula spp.) (?78%), and manta ray (Manta birostris) (?89%), and decreases in the probability of occurrence for 2 other species. Several of these species have small home ranges and should be better protected by an MPA, which underscores the notion that declines of marine megafauna will continue unabated in MPAs unless there is adequate enforcement effort to control fishing. In addition, probability of occurrence at Cocos Island of tiger (Galeocerdo cuvier), Galapagos (Carcharhinus galapagensis), blacktip (Carcharhinus limbatus), and whale (Rhincodon typus) sharks increased significantly. The effectiveness of MPAs cannot be evaluated by examining single species because population responses can vary depending on life history traits and vulnerability to fishing pressure.     

Socio‐economic benefits from protected areas in southeastern Australia

International case studies of protected area performance increasingly report that conservation and socio‐economic outcomes are interdependent. Effective conservation requires support and cooperation from local governments and communities, which in turn requires that protected areas contribute to the economic well‐being of the communities in which they are sited. Despite increasing recognition of their importance, robust studies that document the socio‐economic impacts of protected areas are rare, especially in the developed world context. We proposed 3 potential pathways through which protected areas might benefit local communities in the developed world: the improved local housing value, local business stimulus, and increased local funding pathways. We examined these pathways by undertaking a statistical longitudinal analysis of 110 regional and rural communities covering an area of approximately 600,000 km² in southeastern Australia. We compared trends in 10 socio‐economic indicators describing employment, income, housing, business development and local government revenue from 2000 to 2010. New protected areas acquisitions led to an increased number of new dwelling approvals and associated developer contributions, increased local business numbers, and increased local government revenue from user‐pays services and grants. Longer‐term effects of established protected areas included increased local council revenue from a variety of sources. Our findings provide support for each of our 3 proposed benefit pathways and contribute new insights into the cycling of benefits from protected areas through the economy over time. The business and legislative models in our study are typical of those operating in many other developed countries; thus, the benefit pathways reported in our study are likely to be generalizable. By identifying and communicating socio‐economic benefits from terrestrial protected areas in a developed world context, our findings represent an important step in securing local support and ongoing high‐level protection for key components of the world's biodiversity.     

基于GPR-TOPSIS方法的充填配比多目标多属性优化

为获得某金矿尾砂胶结充填材料最优配比,基于试验结果,以海水比例、灰砂比和料浆质量浓度为输入参数,以充填体强度、塌落度及泌水率为输出参数,建立了充填配比与其响应量的高斯过程回归模型,分析了不同因素对充填性能的影响程度;采用遗传算法对高斯过程回归模型进行多目标参数优化,获得了Pareto非劣解,在此基础上,引入多属性决策的TOPSIS法对Pareto非劣解进行方案优选,确定了充填最优配比。研究结果表明:高斯过程回归模型相对误差值均小于6%,可靠性高;灰砂比及料浆质量浓度对充填性能影响较为显著,采用海水作为充填水源将降低充填体的强度;经优化后的充填配比与试验结果相符。     

公路隧道火灾发生位置与人群疏散通道仿真研究

利用EXODUS建立隧道的仿真场景,确定疏散人群仿真参数,并将出口工效OPS作为评价疏散效率的指标,分析不同火灾发生位置对疏散时间的影响。采用K-means算法分别对火灾发生位置和人群疏散通道位置进行聚类,并建立基于两者影响下的出口工效模型,通过对该模型求偏导,得出隧道火灾发生位置和人群疏散通道选择之间的关系。研究结果表明:火灾发生位置越接近人行横通道,疏散时间波动越大,人行横通道和隧道入口的疏散时间随人群疏散区域分界线变化,当火灾发生距人行横通道20~110 m时,变化明显,当距140~350 m时,变化平稳;出口工效OPS总体呈现不稳定的阶梯状变化趋势;火灾发生位置和人群疏散通道的最优位置呈线性递减关系。研究结果可应用于隧道应急指挥中心管理人员制定有效疏散路径和采取诱导分流人群措施。     

Regression analysis of forest inventory data with time and space dependencies

In this paper the data of a forest health inventory are analyzed. Since 1983 the degree of defoliation, together with various explanatory variables (covariates) concerning stand, site, soil and weather, are recorded by the second of the two authors, in the forest district of Rothenbuch (Spessart, Bavaria). The focus is on the space and time dependencies of the data. The mutual relationship of space-time functions and the set of covariates is evaluated. For this we use generalized linear models (GLMs) for ordinal response variables and semiparametric estimation approaches. By using goodness-of-fit measures it turns out that (i) the contribution of space-time functions is quantitatively comparable with that of the set of covariates, (ii) the contribution of space-time functions is small compared with the contribution of a set of variables describing the last-year and neighboring response values. By applying appropriate residual methods a detailed analysis of the individual sites in the area can be carried out. This analysis reveals where the predictive power of the covariates fail to explain the observed defoliation.     

Sparse regression for analyzing the development of foliar nutrient concentrations in coniferous trees

Analyzing and predicting the development of foliar nutrient concentrations are important and challenging tasks in environmental monitoring. This article presents how linear sparse regression models can be used to represent the relations between different foliar nutrient concentration measurements of coniferous trees in consecutive years. In the experiments the models proved to be capable of providing relatively good and reliable predictions of the development of foliage with a considerably small number of regressors. Two methods for estimating sparse models were compared to more conventional linear regression models. Differences in the prediction accuracies between the sparse and full models were minor, but the sparse models were found to highlight important dependencies between the nutrient measurements better than the other regression models. The use of sparse models is, therefore, advantageous in the analysis and interpretation of the development of foliar nutrient concentrations.     

Statistical inference on patch-specific survival and movement rates from marked animals

Empirical estimates of patch-specific survival and movement rates are needed to parametrize spatially explicit population models, and for inference on the effects of habitat quality and fragmentation on populations. Data from radio-marked animals, in which both the fates and habitat locations of animals are known over time, can be used in conjunction with continuous-time proportional hazards models to obtain inferences on survival rates. Discrete-time conditional logistic models may provide inference on both survival and movement rates. We use Monte Carlo simulation to investigate accuracy of estimates of survival from both approaches, and movement rates from conditional logistic regression, for two habitats. Bias was low (relative bias < 0.04) and interval coverage accurate (close to the nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect on survival based on proportional hazards. Bias was high ( relative bias 0.60) and interval coverage poor ( = 0.26 vs. nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect based on conditional logistic regression; bias was especially influenced by heterogeneity in survival and the shape of the hazard function, whereas both bias and coverage were affected by ‘memory’ effects in movement patterns. Bias estimates of movement rate was low ( relative bias < 0.05), but interval coverage was poor ( = 0.48–0.80), possibly as a result of poor performance of a Taylor series estimate of variance. An example is provided from a radio-telemetry study of 47 wintering American woodcock (Scolopax minor), illustrating practical difficulties in field studies to parametrize these models. We also discuss extensions of continuous-time models to explicitly include a movement process, and further examine tradeoffs between continuous and discrete models.     

拟面积多波长数据线性双组合解析萘,1—萘酚和2—萘酚同步荧光光谱的研究

本文研究了Δλ（λｅｍ－λｅｘ）为１３０ｎｍ和ＰＨ１２．０条件下，萘、１－萘粉和２－萘酚混合物的同步荧光光谱，获三者同步荧光峰信息，且萘被完全分辨，另外，提出用拟面积多波长线性双组合计算解析重叠的１－萘酚和２－萘酚同步荧光光谱，解析结果的精密度、组份间浓度比范围均较多波长线性回归、双峰增配平和一阶导数解析混合物同步荧光光谱结果为优。