Income and distance-decay effects on willingness to pay estimated by the contingent valuation method

This study suggests a methodology for enhancing accuracy in evaluating amenity by the contingent valuation method when household's willingness to pay (WTP) is dependent to its income and the distance between a respondent's residence and the location of a target facility. Using a linear city model, this study demonstrates the influences of income and distance-decay effects on WTP. Simulations are performed to check the validity of the model, as well as to predict consequences when income and distance-decay effects are not properly treated. Finally, the suggested methodology is applied to two real cases. The estimation results from a structural model show that the calculated total benefit varies largely when income and distance-decay effects exist and are ignored. Also, an ad hoc model generates significantly different estimates from the utility difference model this study adopted. The difference in estimates suggests that the total benefit has to be estimated by a structural model.     

Boosted Regression Tree Models to Explain Watershed Nutrient Concentrations and Biological Condition

Boosted regression tree (BRT) models were developed to quantify the nonlinear relationships between landscape variables and nutrient concentrations in a mesoscale mixed land cover watershed during base‐flow conditions. Factors that affect instream biological components, based on the Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI), were also analyzed. Seasonal BRT models at two spatial scales (watershed and riparian buffered area [RBA]) for nitrite‐nitrate (NO₂‐NO₃), total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total phosphorus (TP) and annual models for the IBI score were developed. Two primary factors — location within the watershed (i.e., geographic position, stream order, and distance to a downstream confluence) and percentage of urban land cover (both scales) — emerged as important predictor variables. Latitude and longitude interacted with other factors to explain the variability in summer NO₂‐NO₃ concentrations and IBI scores. BRT results also suggested that location might be associated with indicators of sources (e.g., land cover), runoff potential (e.g., soil and topographic factors), and processes not easily represented by spatial data indicators. Runoff indicators (e.g., Hydrological Soil Group D and Topographic Wetness Indices) explained a substantial portion of the variability in nutrient concentrations as did point sources for TP in the summer months. The results from our BRT approach can help prioritize areas for nutrient management in mixed‐use and heavily impacted watersheds.     

基于支持向量回归机的南黄海浒苔分布面积预测模型

绿潮作为一种新型的海洋灾害,已经引起了各个国家的重视.依据2012年南黄海海域浒苔遥感监测分布面积数据,选取了温度、天气状况、风向、风力、浪高5种影响浒苔扩散的气候因子,建立了基于SVR的浒苔分布面积预测模型,并与经典的最近邻点插值模型、线性插值模型、3次样条函数插值模型和分段3次Hermite插值模型进行了回归效果的对比.分析结果表明,基于SVR的浒苔分布面积预测模型能够为浒苔遥感数据的插补提供一种方法,且回归效果优于传统的回归方法,为浒苔的防治提供辅助决策信息.     

三峡库区典型小流域氮磷流失特征

为揭示三峡库区农业非点源物氮、磷流失的一般规律,以三峡库区秭归县的张家冲小流域为研究对象,自2005年1月至2006年4月,在自然降雨条件下,同步观测降雨、地表径流量,并对2次降雨径流的全过程进行了氮、磷浓度的测定,对降雨过程中径流量及污染物浓度随降雨-径流变化过程进行了监测研究.结果表明,长期干旱后的初期降雨径流中的氮、磷浓度明显高于雨季径流中的浓度,且氮、磷浓度变化与流量变化呈现出大致相同的趋势.降雨初期,氮、磷浓度随径流量的增大而升高;随着流量的继续增大,浓度呈现出下降趋势.对浓度随流量变化过程的监测表明,与基流中的浓度相比,总氮和硝态氮的浓度变化幅度较小,而氨氮和总磷浓度变化的幅度较大,其最大值分别是其最小值的10和67.5倍.溶解性的氨氮排放主要受降雨条件的制约,而径流中的磷主要是以颗粒态存在通过对径流量和氮、磷排放负荷的多项式回归分析表明,TN、TP、NH4 -N和NO3--N的排放负荷和径流量之间存在着多项式关系,R2分别为0.9545、0.9740、0.9677和0.9504.     

崇明东滩湿地沉积物重金属污染的磁诊断

对取自崇明东滩的高潮滩、中潮滩和低潮滩的沉积物柱样进行了磁学、粒度、重金属含量等指标的分析、比较与综合研究. 结果表明:在以粉砂为主的崇明东滩,通过污染负荷指数法进行评价,除低潮滩无污染外,中潮滩和高潮滩均有中度的重金属污染. 选取中度重金属污染的高潮滩沉积物柱样进行粒度、重金属含量以及磁性参数的相关性分析显示,χ_fd,χ_ARM/SIRM与重金属含量和粘土(粒径<4 μm)之间有较高的相关性,并以此建立了磁诊断线性回归模型;χ_fd和χ_ARM/SIRM可作为重金属含量的替代指标.      

多元回归在大气环境污染事故预测中的应用

运用多元回归法,通过预测模型的选择、数学模型的建立、基础数据的整理和回归效果的检验,建立环境污染范围与诸条件的关系,达到快速估算的目的,从而形成一种有效的大气环境污染事故范围预测的方法.     

运用QSPR预测有机磷农药的色谱保留值

通过计算43种有机磷农药的各种结构参数,运用多元线性回归分析方法比较了适用于有机磷农药色谱保留值的定量关系表达式,建立了有机磷农药结构参数对色谱保留值的QSPR模型.模型分析表明:磷酸酯与硫逐磷酸酯两类有机磷农药的模型非交叉验证相关系数R2分别为0.991和0.998,标准误差SE分别为0.0539和0.2874,交叉验证相关系数Q2分别为0.976和0.990,标准偏差Scv分别为0.086和0.610.在已知磷酸酯与硫逐磷酸酯两类有机磷农药结构参数的情况下,此模型可有助于有机磷农药的色谱分析.     

等离子体脱硫运行参数分析

利用介质阻挡强电离放电产生非平衡等离子体,进行模拟烟气脱硫。通过一次回归正交设计,对影响非平衡等离子体脱硫效率的因素进行了分析,建立了多元线性回归模型,分析了因子的主次,并得到了实验指标和各因子之间的定量规律。通过对模型的优化,获得了使脱硫率较高的各因素的最优组合。     

鱼吸收富集LAS的分析研究进展

LAS对鱼等水生生物均产生有害影响,会破坏鱼鳃上皮组织、影响其相关功能(如通透性等)。LAS经由鱼鳃吸收、并通过血液输送到鱼体中各组织。LAS疏水性越大,其在鱼体中生物富集系数越大。水硬度等影响鱼吸收、富集LAS。鱼体中LAS生物转化过程减小了LAS生物富集。鱼体中LAS及其生物转化产物大多是经过固相萃取或基质固相分散萃取后,采用HPLC或HPLC/MS等方法进行分析。     

基于Logistic回归的燃气管网风险因素重要度分析方法研究

为确定燃气管网风险评估的关键风险因素,以A省各地市燃气管网为研究对象,基于燃气专家经验确定燃气管线风险等级,提出基于Logistic回归的燃气管网风险因素重要度分析方法。采用样本增强及随机抽样的方式,选取400个均衡样本作为管网评估数据输入,通过因子分析方法对其进行降维,得到3个公共因子并作为一级指标反向构建燃气管网风险评估指标体系;利用有序多分类Logistic回归方法,根据回归系数绝对值大小对风险因素进行重要度排序。研究结果表明：外界环境对燃气管网风险的贡献程度相对较高,管道自身因素和巡检养护次之。研究结果可为城市燃气风险防控提供理论依据和方法参考。