鄂尔多斯周缘地震带中长期地震趋势估计

本文基于一定的地震资料,分别应用最大熵原理、贝努里概型以及计算地震复发周期的经验关系式,对鄂尔多斯周缘地震带进行了中强地震的中长期地震趋势估计。     

Catastrophic Reproductive Failure, Terrestrial Survival, and Persistence of the Marbled Salamander

Abstract:  Wide variation in reproductive success is common among amphibians that breed in seasonal ponds, but persistence of adults can buffer against these fluctuations, particularly for long-lived species. We hypothesized that the frequent episodes of catastrophic failure of the marbled salamander ( Ambystoma opacum ) enhance the importance of high terrestrial survival. At Rainbow Bay in South Carolina reproductive success was poor (<1 metamorph/breeding female) in nearly half of the 22 years that the species bred. Complete failure occurred in 6 of 22 years. To study catastrophic failure, we adapted an age-structured, individual-based model with density-dependent growth and survival of larvae. The model was based on extensive data from local field studies and experiments. With consistently good survival in the pond stages, the simulated population required survival probabilities in the upland stages (juveniles and adults) near 0.5/year to persist and near 0.8/year to achieve the increases observed. Catastrophic failure, occurring randomly with probability 0.5/year, created additional fluctuations in the population, raised the thresholds of survival required for persistence, and caused extinction under conditions that were otherwise favorable. The marbled salamander at Rainbow Bay is not at great risk of extinction because of catastrophic failure, but the risk increases dramatically if life span is decreased or frequency of failure is increased. Any reduction in terrestrial survival will have deleterious consequences by reducing the breeding populations at equilibrium, even if it does not jeopardize persistence. Our model provides assessments of risk that can be applied to poorly studied species with similar life histories, such as the endangered flatwoods salamander ( A. cingulatum ).     

Parameterizing,evaluating and comparing metapopulation models with data from individual-based simulations

Due to the lack of sufficient data and appropriate ecological information parameterizing predictive population dynamical models usually is a difficult task. The approach proposed in this study is meant to overcome this problem by using detailed individual-based simulations to generate artificial data. With short-term data samples, the models to be investigated can be parameterized and their predictions be compared. The flexibility of individual-based simulations as experimental tools also facilitates the evaluation and comparison of different (aggregated) model types. The presented approach is a step towards unifying models of different complexity. As an example we applied it to two metapopulation models of insect species in a highly fragmented landscape: the well-known incidence function model with a patch-based representation of space and a grid-based analogue. The models are tested with respect to their data requirement and recommendations for a better data sampling are derived.     

结构风灾经济损失模型在GIS中的应用

在城市抗风防灾研究中，采用GIS技术已成为一种必要的手段，但现有结构风灾经济损失模型参数多，不易采集，造成建立GIS数据库具有一定的困难。因此，简化模型，降低数据采集难度的工作量是十分必要的，本文采用样本计算，制成表格供查询使用，在保证计算精度的前提下，使参数由12个减为2个，大大降低了数据采集和GIS数据库建立的难度。     

高填方路基诱发滑坡机理分析

通过对上三高速公路K92滑坡工程地质条件、滑坡特征及滑坡稳定性的分析，采用不分离接触数值模型模拟边坡的变形破坏，初步揭示了松散覆盖土层上厚度较大的高填方路基是诱发滑坡的内在机理。该类型滑坡的产生是由于路基堆载使坡体产生垂直方向的压缩变形，也使坡体向坡脚方向产生一定的挤出变形，最后诱发了推动式滑坡。     

生态旅游区环境变化与可持续旅游发展——以张家界为例

生态旅游区在扩大接待能力，增加旅游注入的同时，不可避免地破坏了景区生态环境。既要接持更多的过夜游客，增加旅游收入，又要使旅游区生态系统维持在安全的水平上，开发建设规模多大为宜，这是许多生态旅游区亟待解决的问题。本文提出了基于环境脆弱因子的建设规模容限值计量模型，并在典型的生态旅游区张家界进行了验证。通过计算得出了在不同的建设规模条件下，张家界景区最为脆弱的环境因子-总磷含量的变化状态。实证研究表明，宾馆规模容限值模型是分析生态旅游区环境变化可持续发展的有效工具。     

灰色预测法在南宁市可持续发展趋势分析中的应用

本文运用灰色系统理论 ,建立灰色预测模型 ,对南宁市社会、经济及生态环境发展趋势进行了分析 ,并针对南宁市发展中的不合理状况 ,提出相应的调控对策。     

论地质灾害防治对策及其系统决策

本文在讨论地质灾害基本属性的基础上,提出了地质灾害防治的基本对策,并基于多目标决策特点,构造了三类地质灾害防治决策最优化模型。     

PROJECTED EFFECTS OF ENERGY POLICIES ON AGRICULTURAL WATER USE AND IRRIGATION1

ABSTRACT: A national and interregional programming model was used in projecting the impacts of alternative energy policies and prices on agricultural production, land use, and irrigation. The alternatives analyzed include (a) natural gas deregulation, (b) natural gas curtailment, (c) doubled energy prices, and (d) tripled energy prices. These alternatives are compared with a base alternative where prices and conditions are at normal levels. Restraints in the model control availability of water, land, nitrogen fertilizers, and energy. Water production functions were used to adjust water use to conform with projected energy prices and policies. Natural gas curtailment would have the largest effect on nitrogen use on irrigated land. Values or shadow prices for lands that remains in irrigation would increase under all of the alternatives because of reduced supply. Increased energy prices generally would increase use of surface water for irrigation and reduce use of ground water due to higher pumping costs. Reductions of 50 percent or more in ground water use would occur in the South Central and Western regions of the United States. Water supply prices increase under all of the alternatives; with the amount varying by regions and the policy or price situation.     

花江峡谷石漠化土地生态重建及其启示

尽管西南岩溶地区石漠化趋势严重,但真正做到生态、经济、社会三效益统一的岩溶石漠化生态重建模式的实践工作却做得很少。且对于这些实践活动还缺乏理论的总结和思考。花江峡谷顶坛片区,充分利用当地的适生植物资源和干热资源优势在石漠化土地上种植花椒、砂仁等喜热耐旱的经济作物,在恢复和治理生态的前提下成功调整了农业内部结构,形成以花椒规模种植为核心心的特色产业,利用雨水、坡面水、岩溶裂隙水,实行参与式社区管理,使环境、经济与社区文化得以可持续发展。“顶坛”模式是充分利用岩溶环境资源优势,高山地保护于特色农业开发之中的一个成功例子。它启示我们,岩溶石漠化土地恢复重建必须重新认识岩溶环境优势。因地制宜,对过去侧重于水土保持的传统治理模式进行创新。