Using deep-belief networks to understand propensity for livelihood change in a rural coastal community to further conservation

Overharvesting of terrestrial and marine resources may be alleviated by encouraging an alternative configuration of livelihoods, particularly in rural communities in developing countries. Typical occupations in such areas include fishing and farming, and rural households often switch livelihood activities to suit climate and economic conditions. We used a machine-learning tool, deep-belief networks (DBN), and data from surveys of a rural Philippine coastal community to examine household desire to change livelihood. This desire is affected by a variety of factors, such as income, family needs, and feelings of work satisfaction, that are interrelated in complex ways. In farming households, livelihood changes often occur to diversify resources, increase income, and lessen economic risk. The DBN, given its multilayer perceptron structure, has a capacity to model nonlinear relationships among factors while providing an acceptable degree of accuracy. Relative to a set of 34 features (e.g., education, boat ownership, and work satisfaction), we examined the binary response variables desire to change work or not to change work. The best network had a test set accuracy of 97.5%. Among the features, 7 significantly affected desire to shift work: ethnicity, work satisfaction, number of persons in a household in ill health, number of fighting cocks owned, fishing engagement, buy-and-sell revenue, and educational level. A cross-correlation matrix of these 7 features indicated households less inclined to change work were those engaged in fishing and retail buying and selling. For fishing, provision of economic and other incentives should be considered to encourage changing from this occupation to allow recovery of fishery resources.     

Making a Model Meaningful to Coral Reef Managers in a Developing Nation: a Case Study of Overfishing and Rock Anchoring in Indonesia

Abstract: Most of the world's coral reefs line the coasts of developing nations, where impacts from intense and destructive fishing practices form critical conservation issues for managers. Overfishing of herbivorous fishes can cause phase shifts to macroalgal dominance, and fishers’ use of rocks as anchors lowers coral cover, giving further competitive advantage to macroalgae. Overfishing and anchoring have been studied extensively, but the role of their interaction in lowering coral reef resilience has not been quantified formally. We analyzed the combined effects of overfishing and rock anchoring on a range of reef habitat types—varying from high coral and low macroalgae cover to low coral and high macroalgae cover—in a marine park in Indonesia. We parameterized a model of coral and algal dynamics with three intensities of anchoring and fishing pressure. Results of the model indicated that damage caused by rock anchoring was equal to or possibly more devastating to coral reefs in the area than the impact of overfishing. This is an important outcome for local managers, who usually have the funds to distribute less‐damaging anchors, but normally are unable to patrol regularly and effectively enough to reduce the impact of overfishing. We translated model results into an interactive visual tool that allows managers to explore the benefits of reducing anchoring frequency and fishing pressure. The potential consequences of inaction were made clear: the likelihood that any of the reef habitats will be dominated in the future by macroalgae rather than corals depends on reducing anchoring frequency, fishing pressure, or both. The tool provides a platform for strengthened relationships between managers and conservationists and can facilitate the uptake of recommendations regarding resource allocation and management actions. Conservation efforts for coral reefs in developing nations are likely to benefit from transforming model projections of habitat condition into tools local managers can understand and interact with.     

School-based disaster risk reduction education in primary schools in Da Nang City,Central Vietnam

The concept of school-based disaster risk reduction (DRR) education has increasingly become popular as greater emphasis is placed on the role of schools in reducing risks and building the resilience of the education system. This paper discusses the variations in the implementation of DRR education among primary schools in different areas including urban, rural, mountainous, plain and coastal areas in Da Nang City, Central Vietnam. For rural schools, similarities in the implementation of DRR education are observed and schools in both rural plain and rural mountainous areas stress the provision of disaster-related training. In addition, improvement of school buildings and external relationship is important for the resilience of urban schools. Specifically, for schools in urban coastal areas, school location and structure are significant, while for schools in the urban plain lands, enhancement of collaboration with their community has the most potential to contribute to the resilience of a school. From that, this research proposes that leadership and prioritization are key factors in helping schools to manage internal and external resources to efficiently overcome challenges and effectively promote DRR education towards the enhancement of schools’ resilience.     

A tool for building community resilience? A case study of the Lewes Pound

In the last decade, “resilience” has gained increasing recognition as a theoretical framework for understanding and managing change in complex social–ecological systems. Resilience assessments are increasingly used to inform sustainability initiatives, strategies, and policies. The Lewes Pound represents a new complementary currency model in the UK, aiming to build community resilience. However, there have been no empirical studies to date assessing the socio-economic impacts of this model. This article addresses the need to understand how such currencies function by measuring whether the Lewes Pound is capable of building resilience. This is done by developing a novel framework for estimating economic, social, and environmental outcomes, which uses a mixed-methods approach. Findings suggest that complementary currencies can enhance social-ecological resilience through awareness-raising and changes in consumption. Although economic localisation – a key indicator – is lacking, there is evidence that the Lewes Pound has developed social interactions and changed consumption patterns of its users.     

Understanding climate,adapting to change: indigenous cultural values and climate change impacts in North Queensland

Many authors have suggested that Indigenous communities are especially vulnerable to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change, yet there remains a paucity of fine-grained geographic data on the particular impacts of climate change on specific places and on local communities, especially Australian Indigenous communities. While there are some recent studies being undertaken with Australia's Torres Strait Island people, our research takes up the issues of vulnerability and resilience with two Indigenous communities from different environments on the mainland in North Queensland. They are the Aboriginal peoples of the rainforest and reef environments of the Wet Tropics and the Aboriginal people of the discontiguous rainforest, grasslands, dry forests and marine environments of Cape York. The results demonstrate variability in their understandings of climate change and in their capacities to anticipate and manage its impacts, while at the same time illustrating some common held themes about environmental and cultural values, observed environmental change, attributions of cause and effect, and of climate in general.     

Understanding urban vulnerability,adaptation and resilience in the context of climate change

This paper introduces a special issue of Local Environment that has arisen through collaboration between academic researchers and the Urban Planning and Design Branch of UN-Habitat, focused on how we can understand and respond to the challenges of urban vulnerability, adaptation and resilience in the context of climate change. The paper establishes the existing state of the art in the field, and considers critical challenges that are emerging in the research-based literature. In this context, it introduces UN-Habitat's Cities and Climate Change Initiative and reflects on the lessons learnt and challenges ahead, drawing on insights from across the papers in the special issue. In conclusion, it identifies the role of international/transnational co-operation, the relation between adaptation and mitigation, issues of multi-level governance and the ways in which change in urban socio-technical systems might be achieved as critical issues across the science/policy interface where increased dialogue and the co-production of knowledge needs to focus in order to advance this agenda.     

‘Are you prepared?’ Representations and management of floods in Lomanikoro,Rewa (Fiji)

The islands of Fiji, in the Western Pacific, are exposed to a wide range of natural hazards. Tropical storms and associated floods are recurring natural phenomena, but it has been regularly alleged that Fijians lack preparation, over‐rely on state assistance in post‐disaster situations or engage in risky behaviours that aggravate the negative impact of floods. Risk reduction strategies, which are now implemented by government authorities and international organisations, heavily promote the principle of ‘community preparedness’. Both community awareness programmes and capacity‐building programmes are conducted throughout the country in the most vulnerable communities. This paper analyses how the inhabitants of Lomanikoro village, in the low areas of the Rewa Delta, perceive and manage existing flood risks. It examines social and cultural factors that contribute to shape risk response locally—in particular, why villagers may be reluctant to adopt some recommended preparedness measures and resettle in higher, safer zones.     

Valuing biodiversity: reality or mirage?

The objective of this paper was to consider the social value ofbiological diversity and explore if this value could be expressedin terms of a unidimensional metric in money. Economics distinguishes between use-values and non-use-values, which are critically evaluated for valuing biodiversity. It is shown that these utility-based valuations have severe limitations as they treat species in isolation from their ecological contexts. In contrast, ecosystem ecology regards ecosystems as an integratednon-linear and nonconvex system in which ecosystem functions canbe understood as a four-component cycle; exploitation, accumulation of biomass, creative destruction and renewal. Withinsuch a cycle, ecosystems can be seen to have two properties: stability and resilience. A good proxy for resilience is the probability of extinction of species, and social value of biodiversity can be expressed as a partial ordering with thisprobability as an index. This approach is consistent with decision theory, of which social choice is an important component, pioneered by Arrow.     

多源数据融合的城市区域型消防风险分布特征研究 ——以太原都市圈所在区域为例

分析区域消防风险的空间演化特征,针对性建立并调整消防站点,可预见性地降低消防风险.以太原都市圈所在区域作为研究对象,将遥感数据、POI兴趣点数据经标准化处理后融入GIS-GANP模型中,识别城市区域间特异性消防风险因子,探讨区域消防风险系数及空间分布特征,并多角度分析消防站点规划趋势.结果表明:POI数据符合区域融合发...     

Operationalizing urban resilience through a framework for adaptive co-management and design: Five experiments in urban planning practice and policy

The emergent discourse on social-ecological resilience can be understood as a response to the rapid pace of change and severe challenges facing urban areas. This paper reports on one strand of research being carried out as part of the EU FP7 TURAS project (Transitioning to Urban Resilience and Sustainability) that aims to gain insight into the implications of social-ecological resilience thinking on urban planning practice and policy by presenting a unique, trans-disciplinary perspective that has been developed collaboratively between academic, local government and SME partners. A framework for adaptive co-management and design is introduced as a basis for the operationalisation of urban resilience, highlighting the need to actively solve problems collaboratively by exercising imagination and creativity, and presenting a new and potentially fertile source for innovation. Five experiments exploring urban planning practices relating to the framework are put forward as examples of urban resilience in practice: an online crowd-sourcing application for mapping underused spaces; an interactive timeline tool for identifying drivers of change over time; a guidance and signposting tool to help community projects overcome resource barriers; an epistemic network of citizens that exchanges knowledge and resources relating to underused spaces; and an online portal that provides visibility for community groups or projects, and facilitates horizontal networking. The paper describes each experiment, sets out the aims and theoretical contexts, records any initial findings, and reflects on the potential and limitations. Initial findings are discussed relating to the challenges of crowd-sourcing spatial or historical data, and the resource commitment required for the emerging practices. It is observed that the experiments attempt to address fundamental issues in urban planning practice and policy, and involve established and familiar activities. The paper concludes that the research provides insight into what urban resilience might mean in practice and that each experiment has the potential to make a tangible contribution to the transition to urban resilience and sustainability.